Kembla Grange Racing Tips: Saturday, August 14th

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 11:16am (AEDT)

Promised myself I won’t bet in Highways again, which are just a way of burning money. And as the first race on the card I’m more than happy to sit out and watch.

(9) Commando Hunt was desperately unlucky in a similar race to this last start, held up badly on the rail until the race was all over. Finished well once clear and should have finished much closer.

(3) Philipsburg finished 2nd in that same race but enjoyed a great run throughout. Will get another good run from barrier 1 here and did win second up last prep.

Throw in (14) Globalize at enormous odds. Currently $61 but can outrun that price. His first up run at the Sapphire Coast was very good. He was tailed off last and stormed home to finish 2nd.

(6) Whatsin is in good form and (11) Danzadel didn’t get much luck last start.

Anything can win.

Tip: (9) Commando Hunt $4.40 Sportsbet

Value: (14) Globalize $61 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 11:51am (AEDT)

There’s a few horses that really need to answer some questions in this race.

(1) Big Parade has won three of his last five starts and resumes with two good trials under the belt, but he always trials well and those three race wins have all been on wet ground. He’s not going to get that here with a firm track very likely.

(2) All Time Legend was defeated as favourite first up. Just raced a bit keen so should be better off for that with the edge taken off him. Should appreciate getting up to 1200m but might still be looking for 1400m. The horse that beat him was Chat, who then came out and ran 2nd to Phobetor in last weekend’s G2 Missile Stakes.

(3) Mamaragan has trialled well leading into his return today. He’s always promised the world, and he has trialled well before disappointing on race day, but the key this prep is they’ve gelded him. The blinkers also come off. We could see a completely different horse, but he’s still yet to win since his debut as a two-year-old.

(4) Zakat is as his name suggests, a bit of a cat. He has three wins and 11 placings to his name. But this is a really suitable race for him to be competitive in. He was very good first up last prep, but just found one better (as he does). With a few reservations about a couple of the others, I think he can be very competitive here and probably looks the value in the race at $7.50.

(6) Stolen Jade won four straight at the start of last prep and she’s trialled very well ahead of her return, but she’s another that might just be looking for a wet track.

Tip: (2) All Time Legend $3.00 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Zakat $7.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN All Time Legend, 0.5 units WIN Zakat

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

(3) Ziegfeld looks perfectly suited today. He’s had two Australian starts and improved nicely from his first run to his second run, where he was beaten 0.2L. Now gets up to 2000m third up from a spell, gets James McDonald on board and the firm ground should be no issue given he won on this kind of surface back in France. Looks the one to beat.

(6) Mubariz is in great form and gets Tommy Berry booked, while (7) Criminal Code wasn’t bad in defeat last start and drops significantly in weight.

Tip: (3) Ziegfeld $2.30 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ziegfeld

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

Tricky little race this.

I’ve ended up with (11) Bacchanalia on top. He’s a three-year-old colt for the Godolphin team, and I find it noteworthy they’ve kept him a colt rather than geld him. His only success so far was a very narrow win on heavy ground at Canterbury – hardly superstar in the making stuff – but his recent trial at Hawkesbury was very good. Gets in with 52kg here and a good draw, and if he’s any good, he should be taking care of these.

(5) King Of Sparta won first up and then started $5.50 last start. Gets JMac booked today for the Snowden yard, who strike at 23% from over 80 runners here at Kembla in the past year. That’s good going, so no surprise to see him bounce back. Main query is the form out of his victory first up. The horse he beat ran 4th at his next start before scrambling home to win a maiden at Newcastle.

(2) Conceited is the other Godolphin runner, and he has been gelded unlike his stablemate. Bowman is booked to ride him first up but he would need to improve.

(1) Rustic Steel won well first up, while (7) Tocomah bolted in at Gosford last start, but this is a different kettle of fish.

Tip: (11) Bacchanalia $5.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Bacchanalia

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

Have promised not to bet in these Midway Handicaps anymore, as they are largely unsuccessful betting ventures. Throw a dart here.

The market here is likely to be turned on its head because (16) Tocomah is favourite but currently second emergency. Comes off a dominant win and is entered in the race prior to this.

(11) Prince Invincible was dominant last start, making it two wins from his past three starts.

(12) Finally Realise sat wide throughout but was still far too good on the Kenso last start so should be able to measure up to this.

(15) Shapur isn’t the worst $151 chance.

Tip: (11) Prince Invincible $6.50 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

I’ve struggled to find anything of value in recent weeks, or at least anything that I’m keen on, but that’s not the case here. Really keen to back two horses in this race.

(4) Mayfair Spirit was huge on Australian debut at Sale, sitting four-wide the trip back in the field before motoring home to run 4th, beaten 0.4L. The former European has never won from five attempts first up, but has two wins from four starts when second up, so if he’s improved off that run (which he should have), he should give this a real shake. He has two wins from three starts at the distance, gets a senior rider aboard, but just has to overcome a tricky barrier. They’ll ride him dead cold again and let him finish off, so hopefully there’s enough tempo in the race to set things up for him.

(9) Accountability has a few things in his favour today. I’m convinced he’s going better than what his form reads on paper. He’s struck wet track after wet track this preparation, but he finally gets back on top of the ground today. He’ll be at peak fitness and today is the day Chris Waller decides to put James McDonald on for the first time this campaign. His only previous start at the track and distance was a win and he’s got a good enough barrier to give him every chance today. Double figure odds s very appealing.

Tip: (9) Accountability $11 TopSport

Also Backing: (4) Mayfair Spirit $7.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mayfair Spirit, 1 unit WIN Accountability

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 2:56pm (AEDT)

This is an exceptionally tough race to bet confidently in.

I’d be happy to take on the favourite (5) Frosty Rocks who won first up, but has failed in all three attempts when second up. There’s also a slight query whether he’s best on wet ground.

Four Waller runners engaged here and really, any of them could win without surprising. (1) Order Again broke through for a well deserved win in the Winter Challenge last start. Goes up in weight again but does get JMac and barrier 1.

(9) Oscar Zulu was poor last start but his form prior to that was very good.

(7) Mohican Heights could be looking for further than 1400m but this is his second prep in Australia now and the European horses tend to improve at this stage of their Australian careers.

(2) Gaulois wasn’t far away first up and Bowman sticks today. Can improve and go close.

Tip: (9) Oscar Zulu $5.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Really only two horses I’m interested in here.

The class runner of the race is (1) Tiger Of Malay who is very well weighted with 61kg. He’s a Group 2 winner and placed at Group 1 level last time we saw him. Draws the inside, gets James McDonald booked and if he’s fit enough, should be the one they all have to beat.

The one at the other end of the weights is (9) Concocted who won on debut at Hawkesbury and then ran 2nd to stablemate Silent Impact last start. He didn’t get a lot of luck in that race but did finish off well. Gets in with a low weight and a good draw. Yet to race on good ground which is some query but he looks up to this sort of race.

(5) Patton is fairly unexposed. Won on debut at Pakenham but failed in two subsequent starts. Won a recent trial at Rosehill and it wouldn’t shock me to see him outrun his current price.

Tip: (1) Tiger Of Malay $2.80 Ladbrokes

Value: (9) Concocted $7.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

The only one I could get interested about in this race was (3) Hasstobegood. She was good on her stable debut for Joe Pride first up at Rosehill, settling last before working home into 4th. She tends to improve from her first up run to her second up run. She draws wide so will get back again and although she doesn’t win out of turn, she’s an each way chance in an open race.

Tip: (3) Hasstobegood E/W $8.00/$2.88 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN/0.75 units PLACE Hasstobegood

Odds Last Updated: August 14, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

I think the $5.00 about (10) Pale King is a good bet here and at that price, I’ve made him my best of the day. The big query is if the 1400m is just going to be a touch sharp for him first up, but I think he’s probably the most progressive horse in the race. He’s won three of his four career starts – winning over 2400m on debut in the UK before two successes over the mile here in Australia. he returns today having trialled very well at Rosehill at the end of last month, where he sat out the back of the small field and made up plenty of ground under little pressure. Drawn well, Berry on, undefeated first up, plenty to like.

(8) Snitzify was sound first up and McDonald goes on today. Might just need one more run before peaking next start (he’s undefeated third up).

Bowman jumps off Snitzify and on to (2) Rule The World, who ran well despite finishing 6th first up. Can improve off that.

(3) Blondeau definitely has the ability but there are two versions of him and he’s drawn out in barrier 14 today, which isn’t ideal.

(7) Smart Image can be forgiven for his horrible showing last start when he pulled up with cardiac arrhythmia.

Tip: (10) Pale King $5.00/$2.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units E/W Pale King