Moe Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 4th

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Scratchings have decimated this race. Was originally keen (5) Sandy Prince at close to even money, but at $1.45 on a heavy 10 I’m more than happy to stay out. Should win- The Garden form is excellent.

Tip: (5) Sandy Prince- $1.45 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(5) Roebling was okay on her debut in the race behind The Garden and Sandy Prince. That form should stack up well. She was beaten 6.2L and didn’t really have any excuses, but can only improve off that and winkers go on. Drawn well, Froggy booked, she looks hardest to beat.

Stablemate (2) Landers has jumped out well enough to feature. Ben Allen is riding well and she also draws well.

(10) Ski Zoom is going well despite being a 19 start maiden. Ran fairly well on a heavy track last start and should be fit, so she ticks a few boxes in that regard.

Tip: (5) Roebling- $2.90 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Roebling

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

Another race we’ve got a short favourite who I think will just win, but isn’t really a betting proposition. (6) The Awesome Son was one of my horses to follow, and I said he’d be a moral in any maiden. Well he’s found a maiden after finishing 1.6L off Seiners Express last start and running strong late splits, and he’ll very likely win. $1.50 is just a bit short, $1.75 would probably get me.

(12) Marquess the only danger, comes out of a strong form race behind Mr Brightside and will appreciate 1600m.

 

Tip: (6) The Awesome Son- $1.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Cleen Acheeva is ready to win. She’s got a very good 4th up record and does typically peak then. She was solid last start going from 1600m to 2100m and gets a soft run here. Query is the heavy 10 track- she’s run well up to a soft 7 and hasn’t always been suited on heavy tracks, but is still unplaced from 4 attempts.

(7) Royelle is coming off a heavy track maiden win, at Moe. Should appreciate the step up in trip but this is a big jump in grade.

(5) Secret Palace led and faded late in the lead up that Cleen Acheeva comes out of. No issues with a heavy track for her, it’s just whether she’s quite up to this grade.

(2) Lady In The Sky had the right run and got the win last start. Don’t think a heavy track will be a huge issue but she is another that goes up in class.

Tip: (4) Cleen Acheeva- $6.00 at PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Cleen Acheeva

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(3) Capodanno can be a tough horse to catch, given he’s never actually won a race in Australia, but his best two runs last prep were first and second up, and his run first up this prep was good in a stronger bm70 won by Loveplanet. Has won and run well on soft tracks in NZ so should be okay on the heavy.

(4) Facemask bolted in when leading on a very wet track three back at Sale. They’ve been riding him more positively since then and he’s been going well. Maps well again and looks the hardest to beat.

(5) Milliondollarbill was okay first up on a heavy and can improve off that.

Tip: (3) Capodanno- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Capodanno

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Strong case to get (6) Brazen Bully beaten at 1200m. He stepped out to 1100m two back and ran well in a good race behind Deep Speed, but he was out on his feet the last 50m. He dropped back to 1000m last start and won nicely, but back out to 1200m is a huge query.

(3) Caffrey has a strange set up. He resumed over 1400m and ran 2nd to Loveplanet, but he’s dropping back to 1200m despite being more of a 1600m horse. Not sure what to do with him at 6 furlongs.

(1) Rolling Moss has the 61kg but does handle heavy tracks and is consistent, especially at 1200m. Will be right on speed and looks over the odds at $15.

(2) The Crusha can improve drastically after a first up failure. He’s been freshened and jumped out again, and likes heavy tracks. 1200m is as far as he wants it however.

 

Tip: (1) Rolling Moss- $15.00/2.90 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Rolling Moss

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(10) Killarney Kiss fought well when challenged on a heavy 10 last start. She’s got upside unlike a few of these but does drop back to 1200m.

(1) Capri Lane did win on a heavy track in NSW before a spell. That provincial form should measure up in this grade.

(13) Our Little Rippa is going okay since a big maiden win three back. This is easier and she’s changed stables.

Happy to stay out here. Killarney Kiss the one to beat but I don’t love her back in trip.

Tip: (10) Killarney Kiss- $2.45 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: August 4, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

(2) Eaglemont is an interesting runner, 2nd up in Australia. I thought he did more than enough first up over 1600m, hitting the line well for 3rd behind a pretty handy horse in Worsfold, who was the biggest certainty beat last week. Clearly looking for more ground which he gets, the heavy track is some query given he hasn’t seen it overseas, but by Camelot it should be okay, and Maher/Eustace haven’t scratched so willing to trust them.

(7) Adonis Kick is ready to do something 3rd up but I don’t love that 3yo winter form.

(10) Exalted Crown should be fine on the heavy track. He was beaten 6L by Capricorn Ridge last start but did run 2nd on a wet track, but is another with that strange 3yo winter staying form that I don’t think is very good.

(4) Alexander Hamilton started $3.30 last start and can improve here.

If Eaglemont handles the conditions he should be going close on his Irish form.

 

Tip: (2) Eaglemont- $2.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Eaglemont