Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, March 19th

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 6:31pm (AEDT)

(6) Private Sector has jumped out very well for his debut run. The exposed form isn’t overly strong here and he does look quite talented. The draw is sticky, but I’d expect they go forward and try to settle close up.

 

(1) He’s Xceptional was okay here on debut and came back from a spell to win a Cranbourne maiden easily. He will definitely push forward and with natural improvement he’ll be competitive.

 

(3) Hunnam didn’t appear to handle the soft 7 on debut but was solid at his next start. He’s had a spell since and has jumped out well since. He gets Lane on from barrier 4 and should be in the finish.

 

Private Sector on top but the $3.30 after scratchings from a wide gate I’m happy to just watch.

Tip: (6) Private Sector- $3.45 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 7:01pm (AEDT)

(8) Muntaseera is clearly the horse to beat after starting $3.40 against Fabergino and Indian Pacific down the straight. She had her chance there on the back of the winner and perhaps just chasing a hot speed first up was a bit much. 2^nd up last prep she ran 2^nd to Swats That which is good form, but I don’t think she’s value at $2.40.

 

(4) Snapper is absolutely flying having led all the way at this T/D at his last two starts. He’s done it easily in both runs and should find the front again here. If the track is playing hot early he’s going to be very tough to run down at peak fitness and at the prices I’m happy to back him over the favourite.

 

(10) Rainbiel was a moral beaten first up and went close here 2^nd up behind Macroura when probably just doing a bit too much early work from a wide barrier. The smaller field here should help and she’ll be in the finish.

Tip: (4) Snapper- $4.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Snapper

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 7:31pm (AEDT)

(7) Sky Horse has been solid at two runs back and should be suited stepping up to 2000m 3^rd up. She was only 3.2L off group class Eagles Crag last start and has run well over 1800m in Queensland before. If she can settle midfield from barrier 4, she’ll be hard to hold out.

 

(5) Rebel Racer stuck his neck out to get win number 2 last start over a subsequent winner but does lose J Kah and draws a bit awkwardly.

 

(2) Cernan is a horse that can go forward but didn’t first up over 1600m. Up in trip and drawn out wide perhaps they roll the dice and try to lead.

 

(10) Milliondollarbill is a horse that will roll forward and was good at Cranbourne stepping up to this trip. Gets in light and should be in it for a fair way.

 

Not betting here with knocks on most of these.

Tip: (7) Sky Horse- $3.90 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 8:01pm (AEDT)

Does look a race in two here and again I’m just taking on the favourite at the price. I speak of (1) Chica Fuerte who is $1.75 coming off a huge run last start at Flemington in a brutally run race, just no match for Starelle who came from further back. I just wonder if she’ll race a touch flat 13 days after that effort and I can’t back her at odds on.

 

That leaves me with (4) Love Sensation who looks to map well from barrier 5. She comes here 4^th up and looks ready for the 1600m after making decent ground behind Forbidden Love in the group 1 Surround Stakes. She split Montefilia and Hungry Heart there which was the A1 3yo filly’s grade, and Hungry Heart did win Phar Lap next time out. Ideally, she can settle midfield one off the fence and if the favourite is caught wide or does rate down I think she’s the winner.

 

(7) Vidiano next best coming off a maiden win where she started $1.60. The start before that she wasn’t far off Narvaez which is solid form back to filly’s grade.

Tip: (4) Love Sensation- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Love Sensation

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Surprised about the price for (8) Lady Solly here, who looks to cross and lead. She’s won her last two at this T/D fairly easily, and did it easily again last start after doing a bit of early work. After scratchings I think she crosses straight to the rails from barrier 11 and from there she’ll be hard to get past again. She’s started long prices at both wins but if you ignore that she should be close to favourite here.

 

(9) Lesage got the perfect run in one of these first up, stalking the hot speed from barrier 6. My knock would be that she’s never won 2^nd up and generally goes much better fresh. Barrier 9 is also a bit stickier, and she might need to get a bit further back than last start.

 

(3) Sisstar is probably the best horse in the field and was only 2.6L off Alfa Oro in one of these first up last prep which is good form. She did beat Lesage home there that night and had a tougher run, so she can’t be ruled out here. I can’t see her being quick enough to hold out Lady Solly so expect her to need a bit of luck from 1.

 

(1) Mossman George is flying and brings different form, having beaten Wayupinthesky last start at Canberra. Gets D Lane and is hard to knock.

Tip: (8) Lady Solly- $7.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lady Solly

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 9:01pm (AEDT)

She’s been backed but I thought (6) In Good Health was one of the better bets of the night. She was unlucky not to finish closer first up behind Chaillot, and the key to her is that she can roll forward and control this race. She won 2^nd up last prep and then won a Heatherlie Stakes against some very handy males. Nolen sticks and there’s no real leader on paper so if he’s positive and finds the front, she’ll be very hard to beat.

 

(4) Scarlet Dream was badly blocked first up behind Sovereign Award and arguably goes close to winning if she gets clear air. The obvious query with her is she’s 2 from 26 and her best runs are usually first up. Staying at the mile 2^nd up and likely getting back in the field I’m playing around her.

 

(8) Grand De Flora was one of my horses to follow out of the Chaillot race and will appreciate the 1600m. She is a horse that can go forward and Willo has put her in the race in the past, so if she does go forward from the outside she’s a good chance, but she would be better on a soft track.

 

(7) Quantum Mechanic is very consistent and did just beat Scarlet Dream home last start, but with no Kah coming back to take the ride I’m not sure she’s quite good enough.

 

Tip: (6) In Good Health- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN In Good Health

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 9:31pm (AEDT)

For my runner by runner preview of the Group 1 William Reid Stakes, please follow the link:

William Reid Stakes Runner-by-Runner Preview

 

Odds Last Updated: March 19, 2021, 10:01pm (AEDT)

Down to just 4 runners after scratchings. (9) Marabi will win, she’s a group class mare any day of the week and if she stays healthy can win a big race in the Spring. $1.35 probably isn’t the worst price given she started $1.16 last start and won by 7L, but hopefully we’re in a good position after the William Reid and can just watch this girl clean them up again.

 

(11) Passionate Lass probably runs 2^nd.

Tip: (9) Marabi- $1.35 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet