Morphettville Racing Tips: Monday, March 8th

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Unlaced looks hard to beat again. She was under pressure a fair way out last start at this T/D but kept coming and it ended up being a fairly soft win. She was 6 weeks between runs there so I’d expect her to take improvement and be hard to beat from barrier 3. The form out of that race has been good with 3^rd placed Crown Harmonium and 6^th placed Heir Of Tavistock running the quinella on Saturday. After the airborne Eaton’s claim she only carries 1.5kg more than the horse she beat.

(8) La Richesse led Unlaced for 1500m of the mile when they met and as mentioned does get a weight swing. It looks a similar scenario with La Richesse likely to lead from the inside and Unlaced breathing down her neck. An obvious chance but I think Unlaced with improvement to come will have her measure again.

(7) Legend Of Zorro is the different form coming from Victoria. He was well backed and was too good at Sandown last start in a class 1. He’s the clear threat and maps to find the back of the favourite with Will Price on board.

Tip: (4) Unlaced $2.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Unlaced

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

With (2) Highly Discreet here 2^nd up off a good run in group 3 company at The Valley first up. She drew wide and had to cover a stack of ground on a night you wanted to be closer to the rails. She’s clearly good enough to win a race like this and draws better in barrier 6.

(6) Smokin’ Val narrowly beat her home that night, but she did get the split along the rails which was the better ground. There isn’t a heap between them but I thought the run of Highly Discreet had a bit more merit.

(1) Ecumenical is the class but has to concede weight to the field, would be better over further and likely goes back from the draw.

Tip: (2) Highly Discreet $4.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Highly Discreet

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

Not sure what the market will do but I think (1) Garner is clearly the horse to beat. First up he just missed Prophet’s Thumb in a group 2 at Caulfield, and last start he had excuses in the Oakleigh Plate, beaten 3.2L. He drew barrier 2 there and the inside was clearly the inferior ground where he made his run. That was in a fast race which I don’t think he appreciates either. He’s got a very sharp turn of foot, has won 3^rd up at this track, and his two runs at this T/D were 2^nd placings to Xilong, the latest by a nose in a group 2. He’s the proven performer of the field and his best wins this.

(8) Night Raid comes out of the Typhoon Tracy so we should get a line on the form in race 3. She had very little luck there so it’s hard to gauge how she’s come back. The jumpout leading in was fairly average but she does get 4.5kg off Garner, J Kah returns to Adelaide to take the ride from barrier 1 and she won 2^nd up last prep.

(3) Second Slip has put up a picket fence and will give his all on speed again stepping up in grade.

Tip: (1) Garner $2.15 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Garner

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

I thought (6) Toff Love was a bit of value here at $9.50. Both runs this prep have been good and his 3^rd up record is strong. Last start he chased home Taken Off who has won 3 in a row and beat home Elderflower. This is probably a touch easier race and I think he can settle closer from barrier 2 as he has done in the past. Vorster sticks with 56.5kg and at the odds he’s a bet.

Stablemate (7) Calypso Reign was dominant first up, but this is much harder. He’s come back well and looks up to this, however.

The other one at big odds that can show up is (2) Aiguilette. He’s a real fresh horse having won 2/3 first up, the only failure coming when beaten 2.4L by Shamino which is excellent form. He’s won a jumpout and a trial leading in and although he’d be better over 1200m the $10 quote looks overs.

Tip: (6) Toff Love $9.50 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Aiguilette $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Toff Love, 0.5 units WIN Aiguilette

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

(4) Ritratto on top. He started $1.80 last start and was incredibly brave after missing the start. He had to be hunted up to find the lead and never got any peace, with a roughie trying to whip up around him mid race. With 59.5kg he gave a kick and just went down to the 2^nd favourite who was able to sit off him the whole race. He drops 5.5kg off that and with a clean getaway should be hard to run down.

(9) Ironclad was the horse to beat Ritratto last start. As I said I think he got the favours that day and meets Ritratto 4kg worse at the weights. He may also be looking for 2000m and barrier one is a bit tricky, but he’s a progressive import.

(3) Over Exposure scares me. His record here is very good having won this race last year, and he did win at Flemington over 1600m two back beating a fairly handy field. He was poor last start but back on his home track with Kah taking the ride, his best will go very close.

Backing Ritratto and Over Exposure.

Tip: (4) Ritratto $4.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (3) Over Exposure $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Ritratto, 1 unit WIN Over Exposure

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

The Group 2 Adelaide Cup over 3200m and we’ve got a dominant favourite in the form of (4) Tralee Rose. She’s a very progressive and very talented stayer coming off two demolition jobs in a row. Her 7L win at Flemington in the Bagot was outstanding and despite being 7 weeks between runs she more than justified the $1.70 quote over 2600m here in the Lord Reims, winning by 3.5L under very little pressure. That should top her off nicely for this and the way she travels in the run, the further they go the better she’ll be. She draws perfectly in barrier 5 to sit midfield with cover and I just can’t see how she loses. $1.95 is more than fair- she should be $1.65 and winning.

I do have a big soft spot for (2) Mosh Music who has an outstanding strike rate and was good winning at Flemington last week. I don’t think the 3200m will be an issue for her, but she will get a long way back and give the favourite a head start. To take a line between the two, Tralee Rose beat Sin To Win by 7L whereas Mosh Music beat him by 1.3L.

(6) Long Arm ran on for 2^nd behind Tralee Rose last start but I can’t see him turning the tables despite the 3.5kg weight swing. He will get a long way back as well and she likely improves more out of their clash.

(7) Starcaster is flying and J Kah sticks. He beat Mosh Music last start (who had genuine excuses) but maps beautifully from barrier 3 and can give a sight again.

(13) Darvin best roughie coming off two straight wins. He’ll definitely run the trip and can make this into a test.

Very keen Tralee Rose. Can’t see how they beat her, and I think she’s a max bet job. Hopefully we get a bookie laying her to $2.00+ but I think anything over $1.75 is value.

Tip: (4) Tralee Rose $1.95 TAB

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Tralee Rose

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 5:28pm (AEDT)

No doubt (8) Victoria Quay is the horse to beat off what she did last prep, beating Personal in the Wakeful, but first up at 1600m off one trial, which wasn’t anything flash, I thought you could take her on.

(9) Another Award started $2.30 favourite in the main lead up and was good with 59kg in a slowly run race. She drops to 55.5kg here and maps well. There looks to be a bit better pace on here which will suit.

(3) Crown Mint has been just fair in two runs this prep and has looked like he needs more ground. He jumped out well leading in and did pick up late last start. Zahra takes the ride and $14 seems a big price given he started $4.20 in the lead up. 

Tip: (9) Another Award- $7.00 at Bet365

Value: (3) Crown Mint- $14.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Another Award, 0.25 units E/W Crown Mint

Odds Last Updated: March 8, 2021, 6:09pm (AEDT)