Newcastle Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 11th

Race 1 Astern @ Darley Mdn Hcp (1300m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. Greater Harlem (14) J: Unknown (59kg) T: C J Waller
2. Publicist (9) J: Brodie Loy (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	2.1	2.05	2.05	2.15	2	2.1
3. Taborca (1) J: Lee Magorrian (58.5kg) T: C J Waller	11	11	11	11	10.2	11
4. Coodarady (2) J: Ms Alysha Collett (58kg) T: C J Waller	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	5
5. Lo Lo Lonhro (13) J: Unknown (58kg) T: C J Waller
6. Satirical Glory (6) J: Rory Hutchings (57kg) T: J G Sargent
7. Turgenev (7) J: Koby Jennings (57kg) T: C J Waller	11	11	12	12	10.8	11
8. Wolf Warrior (8) J: Blake Spriggs (57kg) T: W P Cave	61	67	81	81	83	71
9. Cap Estel (11) J: Jeff Penza (56kg) T: A J Cummings
10. Yasamine (3) J: Chad Lever (56kg) T: R & M Freedman	31	34	31	34	30	34
11. In The Blink (10) J: Dylan Gibbons (55.5kg) T: K A Lees
12. Mikasa (12) J: Reece Jones (55.5kg) T: John Thompson	7	7	7	7.5	6.5	7
13. Taizai (4) J: Christian Reith (55.5kg) T: John Thompson	11	11	11	11	10.8	11
14. Rocklily (5) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: M J Dunn	14	13	14	16	16.2	13

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(2) Publicist ran better than the market had expect on debut, finishing a closing 2nd to Brigantine. He beat home some well fancied horses that day and should be expected to make natural improvement today. Out to 1300m should be ideal.

You can forgive the first up run of (11) In The Blink who missed the start over 1100m at Kenso and was never really in the race. Last prep when 2nd up she was runner up in the Wellington Boot behind Sonnet Star.  

Tip: (2) Publicist - $3.40 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Publicist

Race 2 Precise Air (Bm64) (1850m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. Mother's Mercy (5) J: Reece Jones (63kg) T: Paul Messara	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.75	2.5
2. All But Gone (7) J: Darryl Mclellan (59.5kg) T: D Lane	20	19	19	20	20.5	19
3. The Guru (2) J: Ms Jess Taylor (59.5kg) T: Ms T Bateup	12	11	11	10	12	11
4. Zudin (6) J: Lee Magorrian (59.5kg) T: C J Waller	13	13	13	14	11.8	13
5. Deel With Me (11) J: Rory Hutchings (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
6. Perfect Radiance (8) J: Ms Winona Costin (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	12	12	13	12	12.8	12
7. Undoubted (4) J: Koby Jennings (59kg) T: J C Coyle	13	12	13	11	11.4	12
8. Chateaux Park (1) J: Brodie Loy (57.5kg) T: J C Coyle	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.2	4.2	4.4
9. Too Much Class (3) J: Christian Reith (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	8	8.5	8.5	8.5	7.9	8.5
10. Laphroaig (10) J: Ms Alysha Collett (57kg) T: P & P Snowden	27	31	31	31	21.5	31
11. Red Hot Chillypins (9) J: Jeff Penza (56kg) T: James Ponsonby	35	34	34	34	41	41
12. Sirmaze (12) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (55kg) T: J C Coyle	31	31	31	31	29	31

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

(1) Mother’s Mercy looks the class horse in this field, dropping well back in grade for this race today. She’s been competitive in far stronger races than she faces here and is yet to put in a bad run this prep. The 3kg claim for Reece Jones offsets the big weight and he’s the best apprentice rider going around at the moment.

(8) Chateaux Park is ready to win one this prep. Continues to race well without breaking through and now looks suited getting out to this trip 4th up. 

(4) Zudin is another who has been building towards a peak performance this prep. Has been getting better the further he stretches out and again, will enjoy the 1800m

Tip: (1) Mother's Mercy - $2.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 unit WIN Mother's Mercy

Race 3 Tab (Bm72) (1500m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Royal Banquet (8) J: Lee Magorrian (60.5kg) T: Nathan Doyle	4.8	4.4	4.2	4.6	4.05	4.2
2. Controlthewitness (10) J: Dylan Gibbons (59.5kg) T: K A Lees
3. Commander Bell (7) J: Christian Reith (59kg) T: B A Partelle	20	21	20	19	21.5	21
4. Come Along (2) J: Koby Jennings (58.5kg) T: J G Sargent	17	16	14	15	17.2	16
5. New Tycoon (9) J: Reece Jones (58.5kg) T: Adam Duggan	5.5	6	5.5	6	6.1	5.5
6. Oakfield Captain (5) J: Rory Hutchings (57.5kg) T: D Lane	19	20	20	20	20	21
7. Dinado (3) J: Chad Lever (57kg) T: R & M Freedman	9	8.5	7.5	8	9.1	8.5
8. Majella (4) J: Ms Alysha Collett (56kg) T: Matthew Smith	3.3	3.3	3.2	3.4	3.45	3.2
9. Segrill (1) J: Jeff Penza (55.5kg) T: C E Conners	21	21	21	21	20	23
10. Big Surprise (6) J: Ashley Morgan (55kg) T: Ms K Buchanan	6	6	6	6	5.6	6
11. Obelos (11) J: Ms Winona Costin (54kg) T: James Ponsonby	31	31	34	41	29	34

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Think (1) Royal Banquet will be going close today now that he finally finds a dry track! Has been going okay in stronger races than this in his less preferred wet conditions and gets a ncie setup today. 4th up out in trip with a senior jock from a good barrier – happy to have something on.

(7) Dinado looks a big improver here with a solid first up run over a trip well short of her best. Should be race fitter now and has been a winner 2nd up in the past.

(8) Majella was 2.5L off Kinloch first up and is a winner over this track/trip. Will be right in the finish. 

Tip: (1) Royal Banquet - $4.40 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Royal Banquet

Race 4 Sky Racing (Bm64) (1500m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Amfissa (9) J: Unknown (61kg) T: C J Waller
2. Toomuchtobear (6) J: Lee Magorrian (59.5kg) T: C J Waller	3.6	3.3	3.5	3.6	3.15	3.2
3. Deel With Me (5) J: Reece Jones (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker	7.5	8	8	8	8	8
4. Jack Duggan (4) J: Christian Reith (59kg) T: R & M Freedman	9.5	10	10	10	11	10
5. Linguee (10) J: Rory Hutchings (59kg) T: Ms K Waugh	9.5	10	11	11	10	10
6. Sammy (13) J: Dylan Gibbons (59kg) T: K A Lees
7. Adamas Prince (7) J: Brodie Loy (58.5kg) T: Edward Cummings	14	14	16	15	14	15
8. Cat D'oro (3) J: Chad Lever (58.5kg) T: C J Waller	6.5	6	6.5	6	6.1	6
9. Apollate (12) J: Koby Jennings (58kg) T: C J Waller	12	12	12	12	11.2	13
10. Just Tozza (8) J: Unknown (58kg) T: J C Coyle
11. Dawn Flight (11) J: Ms Jess Taylor (57kg) T: J M Austin	11	11	10	10	10	11
12. Travelling Kate (2) J: Ms Alysha Collett (56kg) T: Brad Widdup	9.5	10	10	10	10.8	10
13. Distinctive Glory (1) J: Jeff Penza (55kg) T: C E Conners	12	12	10	13	11	12

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

(2) Toomuchtobear is still a lightly raced 4yo for Waller and broke through with a good win over 1400m down in Victoria last start. He beat Mr Brightside that day who I suspect is pretty handy and has since won his next two starts with ease. Out to 1500m for the first time looks ideal and the little freshen up between runs won’t do him any harm. Expecting he will be too good for this lot.

(6) Sammy rarely runs a poor race and he hit the line strongly first up over 1200m. Will enjoy stretching to 1500 here.

Tip: (2) Toomuchtobear - $2.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 unit WIN Toomuchtobear

Race 5 Ranvet (Bm72) (1200m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. Exotic Ruby (4) J: Rory Hutchings (61kg) T: Bjorn Baker	3.9	3.8	3.9	4	4	3.6
2. Selburose (6) J: Koby Jennings (60.5kg) T: C J Waller
3. Hyannis Port (12) J: Reece Jones (58kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
4. Sequana (11) J: Dylan Gibbons (58kg) T: K A Lees
5. Windsweep (5) J: Ms Alysha Collett (58kg) T: P & P Snowden	5	5	4.6	5.5	4.85	5
6. Eye See Things (1) J: Pietro Romeo (57.5kg) T: John Thompson	10	9.5	10	10	9.3	10
7. Pearl Roan (10) J: Jeff Penza (56.5kg) T: S J Hodge	8.5	8.5	7.5	8.5	8.4	9
8. Mystic Gem (9) J: Christian Reith (55kg) T: K A Lees	21	20	20	20	20	21
9. Sebrenco (7) J: Ms Jess Taylor (55kg) T: T J Bartley
10. Tight Ropes (2) J: Lee Magorrian (55kg) T: C J Waller	10	10	11	11	9.3	10
11. Pretty Elsa (3) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: C J Waller	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	5.5
12. Mabel (8) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (54kg) T: T J Bartley	5	4.8	4.8	4.8	5.1	4.8

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Think (3) Hyannis Port can run a good race at an each way price. This looks an easier race than she tackled first up, when 3L off Starla and Turnstyle at Rosehill. Always goes better with a run under the belt and the dry track will be a big plus for her. She looked a chance in the straight but peaked late first up so I think that run will do her plenty of good.

(5) Windsweep is the other horse I want to have something on who had excuses for her failed run earlier this prep at this track but showed her talent either side of that with two good wins. The first of those was over Star Cherie, who has since come out and won two on the bounce so the form looks good.

(2) Selburose only narrowly went down in a good Saturday race behind Tamerlane so you’d expect she measures up here. Just needs to hold form to be hard to beat.

Tip: (5) Windsweep - $8.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Windsweep

Race 6 Vinery Stud (Bm72) (900m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Oakfield Twilight (1) J: Rory Hutchings (62kg) T: D Lane	41	34	31	41	40	34
2. Golden Tycoon (3) J: Chris O'brien (61.5kg) T: G Mcfarlane	61	67	71	81	81	71
3. Remlaps Gem (8) J: Ms Casey Waddell (59kg) T: S I Singleton	5	5	5	5	5.3	5
4. Mr Polar (12) J: Ashley Morgan (58.5kg) T: C P Porter	8	7.5	7	7.5	7.2	7.5
5. Stoical (11) J: Ms Alysha Collett (58.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	13	11	11	14	11.8	11
6. Nosey (14) J: Unknown (58kg) T: K A Lees
7. Longbottom (10) J: Dylan Gibbons (57.5kg) T: K A Lees	7	7.5	7	7	7	7.5
8. Miss Dior (7) J: Christian Reith (57.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
9. Nicci's Song (4) J: Jeff Penza (57.5kg) T: G W Murray	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.25	3.9
10. Gold Bracelet (15) J: Koby Jennings (57kg) T: R T Dawson	23	21	19	21	26.5	26
11. Invincible Lad (2) J: Lee Magorrian (57kg) T: P & P Snowden	34	34	31	41	29.5	34
12. Brazenpine (9) J: Ms Winona Costin (55.5kg) T: P & P Snowden	5	5.5	5.5	5	5.1	5
13. Tango Stepz (13) J: Reece Jones (54.5kg) T: R P Northam
14. Isalute (5) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: B A Partelle
15. Stormborn (6) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: Mark Newnham	9.5	9	9.5	10	8.2	9

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Tough 900m dash here with a stack of chances as the market suggests. Will be playing a few horses here looking for a result.

I’ll put (8) Miss Dior on top who drops out of Saturday grade 3rd up today and looks primed to run well. Her recent runs behind Our Bellagio Miss, Sixgun, Battleground all looks good enough for a race like this and just needs to hold that form.

 (7) Longbottom looks a big price resuming. Has been trialling well and always produces a good fresh run. Not sure what happened last prep but she’ll be the one smoking the pipe as they fly up front and might be strongest late.

If (15) Stormborn runs here (no jockey confirmed at the moment) I think she is a massive chance after finishing 2nd to Stoical last start. She arguably should have won there.

(5) Stoical is airborne, winning two of last three but will have to work from the wide draw if he wants the lead today. 

(9) Nicci’s Song bolted in fresh and looks to have come back in good order. Can progress here today and looks a big winning chance.

Tip: (8) Miss Dior - $6.50 at Sportsbet SCRATCHED

Also Backing: (15) Stormborn - $11 at Sportsbet

Value: (7) Longbottom - $15/$4.60 - at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Stormborn, 0.5u PLACE Longbottom

Race 7 Xxxx (Bm72) (1300m) 4:55pm (AEDT)
1. Rustic Steel (12) J: Dylan Gibbons (62kg) T: K A Lees
2. A Magic Zariz (4) J: Ms Casey Waddell (61.5kg) T: Brett Robb	18	17	19	19	19.2	18
3. Awesome Lad (15) J: Unknown (60.5kg) T: J C Deamer
4. Soami (5) J: Reece Jones (60.5kg) T: M J Dunn	2.8	2.8	2.7	2.8	2.95	2.7
5. Conceited (14) J: Ms Alysha Collett (59.5kg) T: James Cummings
6. Selburose (1) J: Chad Lever (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
7. Escaped (13) J: Unknown (58kg) T: J C Deamer
8. Rich And Shameless (7) J: Ms Rachael Murray (58kg) T: S I Singleton	21	20	19	19	20	19
9. Defeat (2) J: Jeff Penza (57.5kg) T: T J Bartley	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.3	4.4
10. Armatree (9) J: Christian Reith (57kg) T: P & P Snowden
11. Land Ahoy (6) J: Koby Jennings (57kg) T: J G Sargent	8	7	6.5	8	6.4	7
12. Miss Fox (11) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Adam Duggan	6	6	6	6	6.1	6
13. Head Of State (3) J: Lee Magorrian (56kg) T: C J Waller	6.5	6.5	7	6.5	6.6	6.5
14. Cliffs Of Moher (10) J: Blake Spriggs (55kg) T: W P Cave	21	21	21	21	18.4	23
15. Kariba (8) J: Ms Mikayla Weir (54kg) T: C E Conners	46	61	61	51	43	61

Odds Last Updated: August 11, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

(4) Saomi is flying this prep with two wins and a massive 2nd from three runs. The rise in trip now is ideal where he has been a winner before. Gets in well at the weights after the claim for Reece Jones and this race looks no harder than what he’s been going around in.

(1) Rustic Steel is the main danger and deserved favourite. Hasn’t done much wrong in 5 career starts and wads last seen winning well in this grade at the Kenso track. Been given a little freshen up since that and is always a good performer fresh. Wide gate looks the main query and happy to be against on a price perspective. 

Tip: (4) Saomi - $6.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN TopSport