Racing Tips

Pakenham Racing Tips: Thursday, March 4th

Racing at Pakenham tonight and Trent Crebbin is keen on two horses, coming up in Races 4 and 8.

by
Trent Crebbin
4 March 2021

Racing at Pakenham tonight and Trent Crebbin has found two bets for us later in the card. He’s opposing the $1.60 favourite in Race 4!

Race 1

Iron Jack Aust. Lagers Mdn (1000m)
6:00pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Iron Jack Aust. Lagers Mdn (1000m) 6:00pm (AEDT)
1. Keep On Bopping (6) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: P Stokes	1.4	1.4	1.35	1.35	1.39	1.4
2. Mysterious Art (1) J: Matthew Allen (59kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	4.4	4.4	5	4.4	4.2	4.6
3. Reward The Bold (2) J: Liam Riordan (59kg) T: Kelvin Southey	12	13	14	17	16.6	12
4. Littlemissdoom (4) J: Michael Poy (57.5kg) T: Kate Goodrich
5. Realism (5) J: Ms Rhonda Mangan (57.5kg) T: Ms R Mangan	46	41	51	61	69	34
6. Anahera (3) J: Damien Thornton (57kg) T: J F Moloney	10	10	11	13	10.8	10

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1400m)
6:30pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Watch Live On Sportsbet Mdn (1400m) 6:30pm (AEDT)
1. Barely A Challenge (2) J: Luke Nolen (58kg) T: P G Carey	51	61	81	91	73	71
2. Black Penn (10) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: G Eurell	3.1	3.2	3.3	3.2	3	3.3
3. Hengroen (9) J: Damian Lane (58kg) T: D T O'brien
4. Imagine Howe (8) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	23	21	26	26	25	23
5. Joltin' Joe (4) J: Michael Walker (58kg) T: Paul & Tracey Templeton	6	6	5.5	6	6.1	5.5
6. Lionel (3) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: P Stokes	14	15	14	16	14.4	13
7. Zagusto (1) J: Jye Mcneil (58kg) T: M D Moroney
8. Adaleene (5) J: Billy Egan (56kg) T: Matthew Cumani	6	6	6	6.5	6.3	5.5
9. Jamala (6) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56kg) T: A W Keenan
10. Violet's Girl (7) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: D R Brideoake

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Superior Food Services Mdn (1200m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Superior Food Services Mdn (1200m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Archregency (13) J: Dylan Dunn (58kg) T: G Eurell	13	13	13	13	13	13
2. Isolating (12) J: Michael Poy (58kg) T: Rachael Cunningham	6.5	6	6	6	6	6
3. Luminara (9) J: Jamie Mott (58kg) T: G M Begg	8.5	8	8.5	9	7.9	7.5
4. Needlework (3) J: Brian Higgins (58kg) T: S C Bottomley	12	12	14	12	12	12
5. Aliesha (8) J: Damian Lane (57.5kg) T: Chris Meagher
6. Beautox (14) J: Michael Dee (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
7. Carrier Buster (5) J: Jye Mcneil (57.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	4.5	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.85	4.8
8. Ideal Miss (6) J: Neil Farley (57.5kg) T: N A Blackiston	19	20	20	19	18.8	21
9. Moose Jaw (1) J: Ms Sally Wynne (57.5kg) T: Sally Wynne	71	81	91	101	101	81
10. Pitchanun (2) J: Craig Williams (57.5kg) T: D T O'brien	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.7	2.7	2.7
11. Sodbuster (10) J: Lachlan King (57.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
12. Vinni Rose (7) J: Beau Mertens (57.5kg) T: Julius Sandhu	12	11	12	12	11.2	11
13. Evening Out (4) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (57.5kg) T: R J Besanko	101	126	151	151	161	151
14. Helen's The Boss (11) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (58kg) T: C F Hyland

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 4

9Mile Fresh Mdn Plate (1600m)
7:30pm (AEDT)

Race 4 9Mile Fresh Mdn Plate (1600m) 7:30pm (AEDT)
1. Rebuttal (12) J: Unknown (59.5kg) T: Dean Grass
2. Tak Ne (6) J: Arron Lynch (59.5kg) T: Michelle Huddart	101	126	151	101	161	126
3. Big Friday (5) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: Michael Huglin	17	16	18	16	17	17
4. Dance Of Thunder (9) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: Chris Calthorpe	17	14	11	18	17.8	11
5. Deepstrike (10) J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	1.6	1.65	1.65	1.65	1.6	1.65
6. Redskin Jimmy (11) J: Declan Bates (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	11	9	11	13	9.6	12
7. Debullet (2) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (57.5kg) T: A W Keenan	20	20	19	21	21.5	21
8. I Am Beautiful (3) J: Michael Poy (57.5kg) T: G Eurell
9. No More Chills (7) J: Brian Park (57.5kg) T: R Pecora	126	126	151	201	191	151
10. Klatten (4) J: Jye Mcneil (57kg) T: K & K Keys	13	12	13	14	11.8	13
11. Sassysav (1) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	6	6	6	6	6.1	5.5
12. Silverdeel (8) J: Billy Egan (57kg) T: Julius Sandhu	26	26	26	26	26	31

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

The heavily odds on favourite (5) Deepstrike will no doubt be hard to beat, but at $1.60 he’s well and truly short enough.

(11) Sassysav could be the one to cause an upset. She got back to last here on debut over 1400m and hit the line well for 5^th, beaten 1.8L. Off that run and by Savabeel the 1600m is clearly what she’s looking for, and she switches from barrier 11 to barrier 1, and Nugent to D Lane. If she can settle closer from the inside, with Deepstrike likely getting a fair way back, I thought she was a live chance of knocking him off.

Tip: (11) Sassysav- $6.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Sassysav

Race 5

Gippsland Premium Quarries-C1 (1600m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Gippsland Premium Quarries-C1 (1600m) 8:00pm (AEDT)
1. Slipintothis (7) J: Michael Dee (60kg) T: Patrick Payne	7	7	8	7.5	7	6
2. Bak Da Man (5) J: Jye Mcneil (59.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	4	3.9	4.2	4	3.9	4.4
3. Vancouver Lad (3) J: Matthew Allen (58.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock	21	21	26	21	20.5	23
4. Spanish Tides (6) J: Billy Egan (58kg) T: Luke Oliver	4.8	4.8	4.8	4.8	5.1	5
5. Tapping (4) J: Declan Bates (58kg) T: Archie Alexander	7.5	7.5	8	7.5	8.1	7.5
6. Haveyouzeena (2) J: Ms Jamie Kah (57.5kg) T: Charlotte Littlefield	3	3.1	2.9	3.3	3.15	3.1
7. Chloe's Day (1) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (55kg) T: P G Carey	14	13	13	15	14	12

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Wise Choice Catering (Bm64) (1600m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Wise Choice Catering (Bm64) (1600m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Key To The Mak (3) J: Jamie Mott (62.5kg) T: Luke Oliver	9.5	9	8.5	10	10.2	8.5
2. Soaring Eagle (8) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (62kg) T: D R Brideoake	6	6	6	5.5	5.8	6
3. Ocean Heart (4) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (61kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace	12	11	12	12	12.2	10
4. Red Light Roxanne (7) J: Brian Higgins (61kg) T: Shawn Mathrick	27	34	31	31	35	34
5. Contrition (9) J: Craig Newitt (60kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr	10	10	10	10	10	10
6. Star Jan (1) J: Declan Bates (60kg) T: Archie Alexander	11	11	10	12	11.8	10
7. Our August Rose (5) J: Jack Hill (59kg) T: Robert Hickmott	11	12	11	13	11.6	12
8. Awkward (10) J: Damien Oliver (57.5kg) T: James Cummings	2.25	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.15	2.3
9. Entrez Boo (2) J: Beau Mertens (56.5kg) T: Julius Sandhu	17	17	19	18	18.2	18
10. Baby Cakes (6) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (55kg) T: A W Keenan	91	101	101	101	131	101

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Apm Group (Bm64) (1400m)
9:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Apm Group (Bm64) (1400m) 9:00pm (AEDT)
1. Fiorente's Girl (2) J: Damian Lane (60.5kg) T: Scott Cameron
2. No Change (6) J: Jamie Mott (60.5kg) T: Shane Stockdale	3.7	3.7	4.2	3.7	3.55	3.8
3. Akecheta (3) J: Brian Higgins (60kg) T: P G Moody	3	3	2.8	3.2	3.1	2.8
4. Brasada (10) J: Lachlan King (59kg) T: L & T Corstens
5. Epic Ranger (1) J: Liam Riordan (59kg) T: Robert Hickmott	9	9	9.5	9	9.6	9
6. Charmed Individual (4) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	3.5	3.7	3.7	3.4	3.6	3.7
7. Dubawi Prince (9) J: Michael Dee (58.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young	19	17	17	19	20	15
8. Jealice (8) J: Declan Bates (58kg) T: Archie Alexander
9. All Too Terrific (7) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (56.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
10. Be Miss Luchy (5) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (55.5kg) T: K J Fythe	9	9	9.5	9	9.6	9

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m)
9:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Sportsbet Same Race Multi-Bm64 (1200m) 9:30pm (AEDT)
1. Exeter (9) J: Ms Jamie Kah (62kg) T: D T O'brien	4.4	4.2	4.2	4.6	4.35	4.2
2. Oh So Rewarding (3) J: Jamie Mott (61.5kg) T: B J Mccarthy	27	26	31	31	30	23
3. Stardayz (8) J: Ms Laura Lafferty (61.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
4. Contalmaison (10) J: Ms Celine Gaudray (59.5kg) T: Cheryl Weller	61	81	81	101	93	101
5. Beaverbrook (7) J: Matthew Allen (59kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
6. Frederick The Dane (1) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
7. Sig Positano (2) J: Billy Egan (59kg) T: Patrick Payne	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.5	8.4	8.5
8. The Last Charge (6) J: Michael Dee (59kg) T: K L Corstens	6	6	6.5	6.5	6.1	6.5
9. Toyetic (11) J: Damian Lane (58.5kg) T: A & S Freedman	6.5	6	6.5	6	6.1	5.5
10. Viscacha (4) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: James Cummings	8	7.5	7.5	8	7.9	7.5
11. Elidi (5) J: Ms Alexandra Bryan (56.5kg) T: P Stokes	3	3.2	2.9	3	3.05	3

Odds Last Updated: March 5, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

On a tough night, I was keen to be with (11) Elidi for the Stokes yard who has run very well at this T/D at her last two starts. She won her maiden impressively two back, with big gaps through the field, and backed it up with a 2^nd to Fighting Harada last start. That horse has come out and won a much stronger race since, and I think Elidi strikes a very winnable contest. Drawn nicely in 5 with just 54kg after the claim I think she goes close.

(1) Exeter looks the main danger, even with 62kg. She was posted wide at The Valley last start and wasn’t far off Ididitforlove first up, which is good form. She draws wide again here so could be forced to get a fair way back.

(9) Toyetic is probably the best horse in the race but hasn’t jumped out particularly well and hasn’t really made the leap from a good 2yo to 3yo at this stage. Drawn wide, he probably gets back as well.

Tip: (11) Elidi- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Elidi

Trent Crebbin

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.