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Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 6th

Inglis Millenium day sees nine races run at Randwick and Tim Geers has provided his tips and best bets below.

Randwick Racing

Sydney horse racing returns to headquarters this Saturday, with Randwick hosting a nine-race card in what is likely to be soggy conditions.

The day’s feature is the $2million Inglis Millennium, which sees a capacity field of two-year-olds line up over 1100m, while we see some of the country’s big guns return in both the Eskimo Prince Stakes and the Inglis 3YO Sprint.

The track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail in the true position, and with further rain predicted, we can expect to be racing on a wet track.

Tim Geers has provided his tips and best bets below, along with his betting strategy for each race.

Best Bet: Race 4 – (8) April Rain

Best Value: Race 1 – (2) Conglomerate

BetDeluxe

0

Race 1

Darley Lonhro Plate (1000m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Darley Lonhro Plate (1000m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

1. Conexy (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: C J Waller
55554.954.8
2. Conglomerate (12) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
6.576.56.56.26.5
3. Construct (3) J: Unknown (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
4. Kelvedon Road (2) J: Sam Clipperton (56kg) T: Todd Smart
5. Nasdaq Dubai (5) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
5.55555.25
6. Retrieval (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: James Cummings
65.565.55.86
7. Avaricious (4) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: Lee & Cherie Curtis
415151414151
8. Baden Road (10) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: J G Sargent
9. Doola Teela (13) J: Andrew Banks (54kg) T: G R Nickson
201201301151261251
10. Jamaea (9) J: Brock Ryan (54kg) T: R & L Price
1514131515.215
11. Miss Ostend (11) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: N F Gardner
262626263031
12. Testimonial (7) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: James Cummings
5.56665.95.5
13. Tilianam (6) J: Tim Clark (54kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
6.5776.56.77

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

The two-year-olds do battle in the Lohnro Plate and although I rarely get too involved in these races, I think the $8.00 for (2) Conglomerate is over the odds. You always have to respect the Peter and Paul Snowden juveniles and they put James McDonald on for race day, which is a positive lead. He trialled back in October but was put away after that, which indicates he wasn’t ready. He then showed up in a Gosford trial a couple of weeks ago and looked very good, jumping straight to the front and coasting home by more than 2L. He draws wide here but hopefully they are positive out of the gates and at each way odds, I’m happy to have something on.

(13) Tilianam comes into this off a debut win at Canberra, which doesn’t look the strongest of form, but it’s not unlike this stable to start them off down there and continue on in the city. Tim Clark trialled the favourite but sticks with GaiBott here and it’s always worth respecting the two-year-olds from this stable.

(5) Nasdaq Dubai is favourite after a stylish trial win at Rosehill. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou had the two-year-old winner last weekend and he does appear hard to beat off what he showed at the trials.

Tip: (2) Conglomerate $8.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Conglomerate

0

Race 2

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Tab Highway Hcp (C3) (1200m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

1. Another One (3) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: G J Colvin
2.92.92.933.152.9
2. Depth That Varies (9) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: L C Morgan
99.58.59.59.39.5
3. Niccirose (12) J: Billy Cray (58kg) T: S I Singleton
2626212120.523
4. Lady Demi (7) J: Brock Ryan (57.5kg) T: T J Robinson
1818201819.219
5. Mnementh (13) J: James Mcdonald (57.5kg) T: Mitchell Beer
88.5897.68.5
6. Cassy's Sister (15) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Troy O'neile
7. Lucky Banner (1) J: Ms Rachel King (55kg) T: R P Northam
2626262626.526
8. Southern Appeal (2) J: Jason Collett (55kg) T: D A Williams
1213151312.614
9. Joey's Chance (8) J: Reece Jones (54.5kg) T: R P Northam
1414131513.414
10. Praline (11) J: Ms Kath Bell-Pitomac (54kg) T: Dar Lunn
141615161616
11. Commando Hunt (6) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54kg) T: Cameron Crockett
8.58.58.598.58.5
12. Call Me Artie (14) J: Ms Jess Taylor (54kg) T: N J Osborne
13. Full Of Fire (10) J: Ms Louise Day (54kg) T: Danielle Seib
6771101818381
14. Katgully Red (5) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54kg) T: Ms J Butler
232121212021
15. Red Kanzi (4) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: R Weston & J Nisbet
232126202323
16. Stand Your Ground (16) J: Jay Ford (54kg) T: N F Gardner
414141414141

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

You can leave me out of these Highways, but I always like the chances of (4) Lady Demi in these races. On her day, she’s more than capable, having won one and placed in a further four Highways. She didn’t get the greatest deal of luck first up last time and was still only beaten 1.8L. She’s had another break and comes into this fresh again. Has a great record here at Randwick and can be competitive at each way odds.

(1) Another One was the major beneficiary of a change of tactics last start, when they jumped straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance in a similar race. He bolted in by 3L and now comes into this fresh off a 7-week break. He’s won a trial in between and gets the blinkers on for the first time today. Should prove the one to beat.

Tip: (4) Lady Demi E/W $13 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Lady Demi

0

Race 3

Heineken (Bm94) (1000m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Heineken (Bm94) (1000m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

1. Cradle Mountain (5) J: Jason Collett (59kg) T: Clare Cunningham
1919202017.419
2. Spaceboy (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: G Portelli
7.57.58.587.86.5
3. Royal Witness (3) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Joseph Pride
141716161316
4. Star Boy (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (55.5kg) T: B F Cavanough
5. Black Magnum (4) J: Robbie Dolan (54kg) T: Mark Newnham
6. Written Beauty (6) J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
1.351.31.41.41.391.35
7. Zaniah (2) J: Jay Ford (53kg) T: K A Lees
101011101010
8. Fanciful Dream (9) J: Ms Jess Taylor (52kg) T: P M Perry
2331312624.526
9. Brazenpine (7) J: Unknown (52kg) T: P & P Snowden

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Sit back and enjoy watching (6) Written Beauty return from a spell. Not a betting proposition with her currently $1.35, and she should prove far too good for this lot if she’s anywhere near her best.

I think the place bet in the race could be (7) Zaniah at $3.40. She goes well fresh, with two wins and a 2nd from five starts. She’s never missed a place at the distance, nor at the track, and she has reasonable wet track form. First up last prep she ran 2nd to Witherspoon and she has every right to be competitive here.

(2) Spaceboy will relish the wet conditions and his record at this distance is outstanding.

Tip: (7) Zaniah to place $3.40 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit PLACE Zaniah

0

Race 4

Ranvet (Bm78) (1300m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Ranvet (Bm78) (1300m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

1. Madam Legend (3) J: Chris Williams (60.5kg) T: L J Bridge
5555.55.15
2. Outback Diva (6) J: Tom Sherry (59.5kg) T: R & M Freedman
1315141513.815
3. Welsh Legend (11) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59.5kg) T: C J Waller
354141414041
4. Starla (5) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: C J Waller
131111131210
5. So Taken (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58kg) T: C J Waller
313431313034
6. Tepario (10) J: Tim Clark (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
1819261819.421
7. Vitesse (2) J: Nash Rawiller (58kg) T: C J Waller
415151414041
8. April Rain (7) J: James Mcdonald (57kg) T: C J Waller
1.851.851.851.91.91.85
9. Maui Girl (4) J: Ms Louise Day (55.5kg) T: J C Coyle
2626342123.531
10. Exotic Ruby (12) J: Regan Bayliss (55kg) T: Bjorn Baker
11. Fashchanel (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (55kg) T: J A O'shea
9.59.510108.910
12. Brazen Gem (9) J: Ms Rachel King (54kg) T: Bjorn Baker

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

This is a competitive race for the mares but I’ve made (8) April Rain my best of the day. The Chris Waller-trained mare has returned with two impressive wins to kick off her campaign, both at Canterbury. She’s come from off the pace on both occasions and looks well and truly up to making it a winning hattrick here. I think Randwick will suit her and she’s proven in soft going, so all signs point to her being hard to beat.

(2) Outback Diva is over the odds at $14. She hasn’t had any luck in either start this prep, held up for most of the straight first up before being caught three-wide the trip last time out. She has placed in all three starts when third up from a spell and she’s also won on heavy ground. Draws well in barrier 6 and can be very competitive with the claim for Tom Sherry.

(1) Madam Legend is going well and is knocking on the door. Getting back to Randwick is a positive and she’ll be right on speed from the low draw.

(4) Starla and (11) Fashchanel aren’t hopeless.

Tip: (8) April Rain $2.05 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN April Rain

0

Race 5

Inglis Millennium (1100m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Inglis Millennium (1100m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

1. Profiteer (6) J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
1.751.751.751.751.761.75
2. Pegasi (9) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
463451414334
3. Chameleon Choice (16) J: Joshua Parr (56.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
4. Keefy (11) J: Ryan Maloney (56.5kg) T: David Vandyke
2121201923.523
5. Harlem Groove (3) J: Ms Jess Taylor (56.5kg) T: P M Perry
6. Baranof (2) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: John Thompson
126151151151181201
7. Mandalong Cash (14) J: Andrew Banks (56.5kg) T: G R Nickson
516151415371
8. Sneaky Five (17) J: Regan Bayliss (54.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9. Ashema (7) J: Tommy Berry (54.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
6.56.5775.96.5
10. Mystic Gem (5) J: Jason Collett (54.5kg) T: K A Lees
272626263031
11. Nice For What (18) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (54.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1111121111.211
12. Jessica Rabbit (10) J: Tim Clark (54.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
819110191131126
13. Hi Hi Hi (15) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (54.5kg) T: G Portelli
1618191915.617
14. Paper Daisy (4) J: Sam Clipperton (54.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
1212131212.813
15. Festival Dancer (1) J: Tom Sherry (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
201201301251301251
16. Mistaken Identity (20) J: Robbie Dolan (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
251301301251281251
17. Arthur Francis (13) J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg) T: J A O'shea
232626262023
18. Rivabrook (12) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: Matthew Smith
251301401301301251
19. Emerald Bay (8) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
20. Loose Love (19) J: Unknown (56.5kg) T: Todd Smart

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

This is up there with the worst $2million race I’ve ever seen.

(1) Profiteer bolted in at Flemington down the straight on debut and then trialled very stylishly at Rosehill at his first look the Sydney way of going. He looks exceptionally well placed and is clearly the horse to beat but at $1.65 he’s well and truly short enough, especially with wet conditions predicted.

(11) Nice For What ran 2nd to Dosh on debut down the Flemington straight 13 weeks ago. Dosh has since come out and won again to remain unbeaten so in a field that lacks any sort of real form, that looks to be fairly reliable. Always respect this stable when they bring horses to Sydney, they dominated some of the 2YO races last year, so the double figure odds do appeal.

(9) Ashema ran 2nd to Acrobat on debut, who looked to be very smart. She then had no luck as favourite last start when trapped wide throughout here at Randwick. With a bit more luck she should be competitive.

(4) Keefy only won a three-horse race at Ipswich on debut but it’s interesting that David Vandyke and Ryan Maloney travel down to run it here. Big odds and worth including.

Tip: (1) Profiteer $1.65 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

0

Race 6

Aquis Eskimo Prince Stks (1200m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Aquis Eskimo Prince Stks (1200m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

1. Peltzer (10) J: Tim Clark (59kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
5.55.55.55.55.65.5
2. Prague (8) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: Annabel Neasham
99999.29
3. North Pacific (4) J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.052.052.12.12.152
4. Global Quest (6) J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
515151515351
5. On The Lead (3) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
1313141412.814
6. The Face (9) J: James Innes Jnr (56kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
77776.87
7. Vreneli (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (56kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
8. Tommy Gold (7) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: J A O'shea
7.58886.98
9. Belieber (2) J: Ms Winona Costin (56kg) T: Anthony Mountney
151151151151161151
10. Never Talk (1) J: Sam Clipperton (54kg) T: K A Lees

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Just going to bank on the fact (3) North Pacific is the best horse in the race here. His trials this time in have been somewhat head-scratchers. I don’t think they’ve been anywhere near as good as they were leading into last preparation, but I’m hoping the Hawkes team have him spot on for race day. He was dominant last prep, especially on wet ground, and he’s the best suited over this distance.

(1) Peltzer is undefeated at Randwick, winning 4/4. They toyed with racing him off speed last prep but once they let him roll in front, he returned to his best form, so expect an aggressive ride from barrier 10 today. The issue is, North Pacific well and truly had him covered when they met last preparation, so if North Pacific is at his best, he really should be taking care of Peltzer.

(2) Prague is the really interesting runner, making his first start for new trainer Annabel Neasham. The blinkers come off for the first time and he trialled fairly well, so it would be no surprise to see a good run fresh.

(4) Global Quest also makes his stable debut for Annabel Neasham, previously with Chris Waller.

Tip: (3) North Pacific $2.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN North Pacific

0

Race 7

Inglis Sprint (1200m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Inglis Sprint (1200m)
4:35pm (AEDT)

1. Ole Kirk (7) J: James Mcdonald (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
2.62.62.62.62.652.6
2. Prime Star (8) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: R & M Freedman
161618171716
3. The Bopper (1) J: Hugh Bowman (56kg) T: K A Lees
8.58.59.598.58.5
4. Malkovich (4) J: Ms Rachel King (56kg) T: Bjorn Baker
262126212521
5. Japery (3) J: Nash Rawiller (56kg) T: Patrick Payne
353434313631
6. Osamu (6) J: Jason Collett (56kg) T: Annabel Neasham
2019191920.523
7. Rocketing By (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (56kg) T: David Pfieffer
262626262526
8. Rule Of Law (2) J: Joshua Parr (56kg) T: P & P Snowden
232620192621
9. Gave Me You (11) J: Ms Winona Costin (56kg) T: Anthony Mountney
251301401301321251
10. Dame Giselle (9) J: Tommy Berry (54kg) T: P & P Snowden
33.23.23.32.953.3
11. Bella Nipotina (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg) T: T Dabernig & B Hayes
1617181717.218

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Tipping against the favourite (1) Ole Kirk, who resumes over 1200m on what’s likely to be a wet track. He came up short over this distance last prep, albeit in some very handy races. It was when he got to 1400m and 1600m that he really begun to be the superior animal. He’s also done his best racing on firm ground, so the likelihood of a wet track also doesn’t help him.

I’ll be with the filly (10) Dame Giselle instead. I think she’s better suited fresh, better at the distance and better on the soft ground. She should go forward from the draw, and her dynamic turn of foot might be enough for her to hold off the colt. She’s won three of her four starts at the track and distance.

(2) Prime Star can go well at double figure odds.

Tip: (10) Dame Giselle $3.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dame Giselle

0

Race 8

Davali Thoroughbreds Cup (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Davali Thoroughbreds Cup (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

1. Quackerjack (4) J: Tom Sherry (61kg) T: Mark Newnham
2. Shared Ambition (7) J: James Mcdonald (60.5kg) T: C J Waller
999.59.59.59
3. Order Again (5) J: Sam Clipperton (59kg) T: C J Waller
7.57.5787.88
4. The Lord Mayor (9) J: Hugh Bowman (58kg) T: C J Waller
353434414034
5. Sikandarabad (8) J: Simon Price (57.5kg) T: Sam Kavanagh
515151515351
6. Herengawe (1) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (55.5kg) T: C J Waller
818181718171
7. Mount Popa (6) J: Tommy Berry (53.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
44.44.24.244.4
8. All Time Legend (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (53kg) T: L J Bridge
1.81.81.81.91.821.8
9. Faith In Kind (2) J: Brock Ryan (52.5kg) T: P J Eggleston
201201151201261151
10. Dame Kiri (3) J: Ms Rachel King (52kg) T: A J Denham
2318182123.517

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

(8) All Time Legend is the horse to beat here but I do think he’s as short as you’d want to get at $1.80. I can’t back him at that price purely because I have some respect for a couple of others in the race. If you like him, I couldn’t turn you off him though. He should be undefeated from three starts this prep, just forget he went around last start when he was murdered. Loves wet ground, should be 4/4 at Randwick and is quite obviously the one to beat.

The real X-factor in the race is (7) Mount Popa who was very good on his Australian debut over 1400m before bolting in when stepped up to 2000m at his second start here. He now comes into this first up over 1500m off just one trial. Wet ground is obviously no issue and he may well just have a class edge on his side. It makes for an interesting contest – the race fit and in-form horse against the class horse over a slightly unsuitable distance.

I also find it extremely interesting that Chris Waller has elected to put the blinkers straight on (2) Shared Ambition, as well as James McDonald first up. Last prep he resumed without blinkers and with an apprentice on, so it’s intriguing that he gets the stable’s main jockey and the shades first up. At his best, he’d give this a real shake and I’m fascinated by what the market is going to do.

Tip: (7) Mount Popa $3.90 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (2) Shared Ambition $8.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mount Popa, 0.5 units WIN Shared Ambition

0

Race 9

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (1600m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

Race 9

The Agency Real Estate (Bm78) (1600m)
5:55pm (AEDT)

1. Ulysses (6) J: Jean Van Overmeire (60kg) T: R & M Freedman
1011101211.210
2. Game Of Thorns (12) J: Hugh Bowman (57kg) T: K A Lees
3. Zegalo (4) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: C J Waller
4. Selica (8) J: Ms Louise Day (56.5kg) T: Annabel Neasham
5. Pitchfork (11) J: Regan Bayliss (55.5kg) T: J A O'shea
2020212118.821
6. Blaze A Trail (1) J: James Mcdonald (55kg) T: Matthew Vella
3.83.83.944.053.9
7. St Covet's Spirit (13) J: Sam Clipperton (55kg) T: J C Coyle
101010109.911
8. Zing (5) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: C J Waller
66666.16
9. Derbari (9) J: Brenton Avdulla (54.5kg) T: Joseph Pride
5554.84.75
10. Blondeau (2) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (53kg) T: C J Waller
1111121110.811
11. Our Bambino (7) J: Brock Ryan (52.5kg) T: R & L Price
20115115115159101
12. Sky Lab (3) J: Robbie Dolan (52kg) T: P M Perry
88.58.588.48
13. Enduring Night (10) J: Ms Jess Taylor (52kg) T: J C Coyle
1019171918581

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Very open race to round things off. The favourite is (6) Blaze A Trail at $3.20 for Matt Vella and James McDonald, coming off a 2nd placing over 1300m at Rosehill in easier grade first up. This is a harder race and the winner of that race (Tycoonist) then only managed to run 6th at its next start. I’m respecting Blaze A Trail but think there’s others at better odds to back.

(8) Zing gets blinkers on for the first time. She led all the way to win over this track and distance two starts ago in easier grade. They then took her back to last from the wide gate last start, and she ran home to finish midfield. She started favourite for that race so respect her SP. Better barrier draw today, blinkers on and she has good wet track form. Pretty keen on her at double figure odds.

(4) Selica ran 3rd in G3 company two starts back and prior to that she ran well in this grade at Rosehill. Forgive her last start when she didn’t get much luck in the home straight. The jockey is hard to back but at $18 she represents a bit of value.

(1) Ulysees will go forward and run her usual honest race. She carries the weight but the furthest back she’s finished this prep was 4th, and she was only beaten 1.1L on that occasion. She’s a $14 chance.

Tip: (8) Zing $12 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Selica $18 & (1) Ulysees $14

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zing, 0.5 units WIN Selica, 0.5 units WIN Ulysees

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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