Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, February 6th

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

The two-year-olds do battle in the Lohnro Plate and although I rarely get too involved in these races, I think the $8.00 for (2) Conglomerate is over the odds. You always have to respect the Peter and Paul Snowden juveniles and they put James McDonald on for race day, which is a positive lead. He trialled back in October but was put away after that, which indicates he wasn’t ready. He then showed up in a Gosford trial a couple of weeks ago and looked very good, jumping straight to the front and coasting home by more than 2L. He draws wide here but hopefully they are positive out of the gates and at each way odds, I’m happy to have something on.

(13) Tilianam comes into this off a debut win at Canberra, which doesn’t look the strongest of form, but it’s not unlike this stable to start them off down there and continue on in the city. Tim Clark trialled the favourite but sticks with GaiBott here and it’s always worth respecting the two-year-olds from this stable.

(5) Nasdaq Dubai is favourite after a stylish trial win at Rosehill. Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou had the two-year-old winner last weekend and he does appear hard to beat off what he showed at the trials.

Tip: (2) Conglomerate $8.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Conglomerate

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

You can leave me out of these Highways, but I always like the chances of (4) Lady Demi in these races. On her day, she’s more than capable, having won one and placed in a further four Highways. She didn’t get the greatest deal of luck first up last time and was still only beaten 1.8L. She’s had another break and comes into this fresh again. Has a great record here at Randwick and can be competitive at each way odds.

(1) Another One was the major beneficiary of a change of tactics last start, when they jumped straight to the front and gave nothing else a chance in a similar race. He bolted in by 3L and now comes into this fresh off a 7-week break. He’s won a trial in between and gets the blinkers on for the first time today. Should prove the one to beat.

Tip: (4) Lady Demi E/W $13 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Lady Demi

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Sit back and enjoy watching (6) Written Beauty return from a spell. Not a betting proposition with her currently $1.35, and she should prove far too good for this lot if she’s anywhere near her best.

I think the place bet in the race could be (7) Zaniah at $3.40. She goes well fresh, with two wins and a 2^nd from five starts. She’s never missed a place at the distance, nor at the track, and she has reasonable wet track form. First up last prep she ran 2^nd to Witherspoon and she has every right to be competitive here.

(2) Spaceboy will relish the wet conditions and his record at this distance is outstanding.

Tip: (7) Zaniah to place $3.40 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit PLACE Zaniah

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

This is a competitive race for the mares but I’ve made (8) April Rain my best of the day. The Chris Waller-trained mare has returned with two impressive wins to kick off her campaign, both at Canterbury. She’s come from off the pace on both occasions and looks well and truly up to making it a winning hattrick here. I think Randwick will suit her and she’s proven in soft going, so all signs point to her being hard to beat.

(2) Outback Diva is over the odds at $14. She hasn’t had any luck in either start this prep, held up for most of the straight first up before being caught three-wide the trip last time out. She has placed in all three starts when third up from a spell and she’s also won on heavy ground. Draws well in barrier 6 and can be very competitive with the claim for Tom Sherry.

(1) Madam Legend is going well and is knocking on the door. Getting back to Randwick is a positive and she’ll be right on speed from the low draw.

(4) Starla and (11) Fashchanel aren’t hopeless.

Tip: (8) April Rain $2.05 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN April Rain

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

This is up there with the worst $2million race I’ve ever seen.

(1) Profiteer bolted in at Flemington down the straight on debut and then trialled very stylishly at Rosehill at his first look the Sydney way of going. He looks exceptionally well placed and is clearly the horse to beat but at $1.65 he’s well and truly short enough, especially with wet conditions predicted.

(11) Nice For What ran 2^nd to Dosh on debut down the Flemington straight 13 weeks ago. Dosh has since come out and won again to remain unbeaten so in a field that lacks any sort of real form, that looks to be fairly reliable. Always respect this stable when they bring horses to Sydney, they dominated some of the 2YO races last year, so the double figure odds do appeal.

(9) Ashema ran 2^nd to Acrobat on debut, who looked to be very smart. She then had no luck as favourite last start when trapped wide throughout here at Randwick. With a bit more luck she should be competitive.

(4) Keefy only won a three-horse race at Ipswich on debut but it’s interesting that David Vandyke and Ryan Maloney travel down to run it here. Big odds and worth including.

Tip: (1) Profiteer $1.65 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Just going to bank on the fact (3) North Pacific is the best horse in the race here. His trials this time in have been somewhat head-scratchers. I don’t think they’ve been anywhere near as good as they were leading into last preparation, but I’m hoping the Hawkes team have him spot on for race day. He was dominant last prep, especially on wet ground, and he’s the best suited over this distance.

(1) Peltzer is undefeated at Randwick, winning 4/4. They toyed with racing him off speed last prep but once they let him roll in front, he returned to his best form, so expect an aggressive ride from barrier 10 today. The issue is, North Pacific well and truly had him covered when they met last preparation, so if North Pacific is at his best, he really should be taking care of Peltzer.

(2) Prague is the really interesting runner, making his first start for new trainer Annabel Neasham. The blinkers come off for the first time and he trialled fairly well, so it would be no surprise to see a good run fresh.

(4) Global Quest also makes his stable debut for Annabel Neasham, previously with Chris Waller.

Tip: (3) North Pacific $2.25 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN North Pacific

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Tipping against the favourite (1) Ole Kirk, who resumes over 1200m on what’s likely to be a wet track. He came up short over this distance last prep, albeit in some very handy races. It was when he got to 1400m and 1600m that he really begun to be the superior animal. He’s also done his best racing on firm ground, so the likelihood of a wet track also doesn’t help him.

I’ll be with the filly (10) Dame Giselle instead. I think she’s better suited fresh, better at the distance and better on the soft ground. She should go forward from the draw, and her dynamic turn of foot might be enough for her to hold off the colt. She’s won three of her four starts at the track and distance.

(2) Prime Star can go well at double figure odds.

Tip: (10) Dame Giselle $3.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dame Giselle

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

(8) All Time Legend is the horse to beat here but I do think he’s as short as you’d want to get at $1.80. I can’t back him at that price purely because I have some respect for a couple of others in the race. If you like him, I couldn’t turn you off him though. He should be undefeated from three starts this prep, just forget he went around last start when he was murdered. Loves wet ground, should be 4/4 at Randwick and is quite obviously the one to beat.

The real X-factor in the race is (7) Mount Popa who was very good on his Australian debut over 1400m before bolting in when stepped up to 2000m at his second start here. He now comes into this first up over 1500m off just one trial. Wet ground is obviously no issue and he may well just have a class edge on his side. It makes for an interesting contest – the race fit and in-form horse against the class horse over a slightly unsuitable distance.

I also find it extremely interesting that Chris Waller has elected to put the blinkers straight on (2) Shared Ambition, as well as James McDonald first up. Last prep he resumed without blinkers and with an apprentice on, so it’s intriguing that he gets the stable’s main jockey and the shades first up. At his best, he’d give this a real shake and I’m fascinated by what the market is going to do.

Tip: (7) Mount Popa $3.90 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (2) Shared Ambition $8.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mount Popa, 0.5 units WIN Shared Ambition

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Very open race to round things off. The favourite is (6) Blaze A Trail at $3.20 for Matt Vella and James McDonald, coming off a 2^nd placing over 1300m at Rosehill in easier grade first up. This is a harder race and the winner of that race (Tycoonist) then only managed to run 6^th at its next start. I’m respecting Blaze A Trail but think there’s others at better odds to back.

(8) Zing gets blinkers on for the first time. She led all the way to win over this track and distance two starts ago in easier grade. They then took her back to last from the wide gate last start, and she ran home to finish midfield. She started favourite for that race so respect her SP. Better barrier draw today, blinkers on and she has good wet track form. Pretty keen on her at double figure odds.

(4) Selica ran 3^rd in G3 company two starts back and prior to that she ran well in this grade at Rosehill. Forgive her last start when she didn’t get much luck in the home straight. The jockey is hard to back but at $18 she represents a bit of value.

(1) Ulysees will go forward and run her usual honest race. She carries the weight but the furthest back she’s finished this prep was 4^th, and she was only beaten 1.1L on that occasion. She’s a $14 chance.

Tip: (8) Zing $12 Sportsbet

Value: (4) Selica $18 & (1) Ulysees $14

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Zing, 0.5 units WIN Selica, 0.5 units WIN Ulysees