Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, February 6th

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Not the easiest start to the day. (7) Regardsmaree is coming off a big win at the T/D when racing wide, but it was off a slow tempo. He steps up to bm84 grade but drops in the weights, and it’s not an overly strong field. He’s the one to beat but a touch short at the current prices.

 

(9) Imperial Lad is racing well and plummets in the weights down to 52.5kg after Teo’s claim. He looks to get a lovely run on speed from barrier 4 and if there’s any on pace advantage early he’ll be suited.

 

(1) Mystery Shot was absolutely awful first up down the straight when drifting heavily in betting. His best would win this but he’s hard to have off that. Back to Caulfield looks a big tick and be wary of any betting moves.

 

(8) Eugene’s Forest drops back to 1400m but has been racing well in similar races. He looks well in with 55.5kg but the draw isn’t ideal for this circuit.

 

Tip: (9) Imperial Lad - $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Imperial Lad

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

(5) Arcaded bolted in on debut in a fairly average race. She’s clearly got some talent, but I thought she was short enough here- the margin was flattering due to the perfect run in transit and lack of opposition.

 

(3) Tayla’s Moment comes out of the best form reference, having split Dosh and Frost Flowers in the Preview. She ran 2^nd to Frost Flowers on debut with 3L back to 3^rd, and I think she’ll appreciate the extra 100m here. The stable is flying, and she maps nicely from barrier 6.

 

(10) Wolves wasn’t bad in the same race despite starting $71. She can improve and I think 1100m will suit her too.

 

(6) Bird Of Dubai was unlucky last start when narrowly beaten by (2) Telluride. Both have chances but I think they’re about the right price.

 

Tip: (3) Tayla's Moment - $5.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Tayla's Moment

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Great edition of the boy’s Preview- I can make a case for most of the field. (1) General Beau has done nothing wrong and is the professional 2yo of the field. That will take him a long way, but I think there are a few with more talent that can beat him.

 

(2) Anamoe is the fresh blood. He was completely luckless on debut behind Fake Love- held up around the turn, then forced back to the inside in the 200m. He never once got to build momentum but still nearly ran the fastest last 200m of the race under minimal riding. I loved the win at Sandown the start after, narrowly getting the better of Forbes with gaps through the field. He’s jumped out well and I’ve got him on top.

 

(7) Jigsaw led all the way on debut and won very impressively. He did it in fast time with no pressure, so it’ll be interesting to see how he copes in a bigger field. The form has certainly stacked up, with 2^nd horse Artorius bolting in at his next start. He’s trialled well since and could be pretty talented.

 

(5) Yulong Turbo will get over further but his debut win at Morphettville was very impressive. He was green as grass, but once he got clear and balanced up, the big boy ripped clear over the final 100m. The form can line up through Bleriot and Gulf Of Suez who was very good in the Preview.

 

(3) Extreme Warrior and (6) Marine One were both very good in the Preview and can win.

 

Tip: (2) Anamoe - $5.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Jigsaw - $3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Anamoe, 1 unit WIN Jigsaw

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Great little race here, and I’m firmly siding with the fit, up and running horses, against the Spring 3yo’s resuming. (7) It’sourtime is 2/2 and has put up some strong closing splits at both outings. He was too good in a strong maiden on debut, nearly 1 second faster than the other 1110m race on the day, and backed it up in a bm64, again running strong late splits coming from a long way back weaving through the field. He’s already crying out for 1400m which he gets here, and Naval Envoy has come out of that fast race and since won easily at Sandown. I do wish he’d drawn out a touch more, but he’ll be at peak fitness which counts for a lot here.

 

(9) I’m Thunderstruck is the other one that interests me and the form ties in through Just Malcom. There was a big spruik before the debut and he backed it up, running the meeting’s fastest last 400/200m to run down the leader who looked to have the race won. He was still very raw and laid in, but once he did straighten up, he really motored through the line, with 3.5L back to 3^rd. He’s another already crying out for further, maps well from barrier 4 and has to be a winning chance.

 

(2) Amish Boy looks too short but is an obvious winning chance. I don’t think that Magic Millions race was much good when he started $31 behind Aim- Isotope fell, Away Game didn’t show up/run the trip, and there wasn’t much else to it. He’s been a consistent 3yo, but I think he’s been a bit overrated off that 2^nd last start.

 

(4) Jet Propulsion has jumped out very nicely and whilst he likely gets over further some of his Sydney form is good enough for this.

 

It’sourtime looks good value. He opened $10 and is $9 at the time of writing, but I’d be happy to back him down to $6.50. Backing him and I’m Thunderstruck.

 

Tip: (7) It’sourtime - $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (9) I'm Thunderstruck - $4.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN It'sourtime, 1 unit WIN I'm Thunderstruck

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Siding with the toppy (1) La Mexicana here. I wanted to see how she came back in a strong bm84, getting the better of two good, in form, fit mares in Miss Albania and Absolute Flirt. She can only improve off that, and 2^nd up last prep she absolutely bolted in. Heavy or not this track should have some give in it, which will only help. Kah sticks, she’s got the run under her belt and has come back in great order.

 

(10) Pinkham is the query. She bolted in on debut at Seymour despite sitting wide, beating very little, but the recent trial is what has caused her to come up favourite. She led them up comfortably over 1000m and under riding extended to win it by 7L. It was obviously an impressive piece of work, but you’ve got to factor in what the horses behind her were doing and how much intent they showed. I can’t knock her on what she’s done but this is a group 3 race, not a maiden or a trial.

 

(2) Hindaam is always a horse I’ve had an opinion of, and she’s delivered on that potential, winning her maiden first up on the synthetic by 5L, then failing when sitting on speed behind Odeum and Aidensfield. She had a short break and put together two big wins, coming from a long way back in both. She beat La Mexicana at Sandown over 1400m and whilst I think their runs were equally as good, it’s worth noting. I think she’ll be better with the run under her belt at 1400m but she’s in the game regardless.

 

(5) Aidensfield didn’t do much wrong last prep, running 2^nd to Night Raid and Odeum in consecutive listed races. No knock on her either, but again I’m just tipping the race fitness of La Mexicana to come to the fore.

 

(7) Highly Discreet could be the value- her run first up last prep was very good behind Swats That, which is the A grade fillies’ sprinting form. I like her fresh and she draws well.

 

Tip: (1) La Mexicana - $3.20 at Bet365

Value: (7) Highly Discreet - $21.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN La Mexicana, 0.5 units WIN Highly Discreet

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

(2) Nonconformist was probably the run of the race when first up last prep and been trialling well for his first up run here, which is notably over 1600m not 1400m. He’s always been a horse that has showed group level talent, but things didn’t go to plan last prep. A soft track would be a bit of a query as his worst run last prep was on a soft 6, which was probably a bit wetter.

 

(4) Over Exposure is the fit horse racing well. He was unlucky two back but atoned with a perfect run last start at Flemington, winning easily over the mile. He’ll be at peak fitness as opposed to a lot of these, which can often be the difference.

 

(6) Best Of Days is an interesting one. His last two runs in Sydney are definitely good enough to win this, but he hasn’t won in forever and his runs the Melbourne way of going aren’t as good.

 

(3) Night’s Watch is going quite well. He was just too far back in a slow race first up but did run 2^nd to Tavidance, and again was very solid last start despite finishing 8^th, only beaten 2L there by Defibrillate, with Paradee and Mosh Music also just ahead. The big tick for him here is getting to a SWP race. He’s had to carry 62kg at both runs this prep, giving the winner 6kg in both runs, but drops down to 58.5kg here. The draw isn’t ideal but despite it being Night’s Watch, the price seems big for a horse that is racing very well in this sort of grade and finally gets in better at the weights. The Geelong trial behind Sir Dragonet was good too, making ground under a bit of riding from a long way back to run 3^rd, with Nonconformist just ahead of him.

 

Chances don’t end there. Nonconformist scares me but I think he’s about his right price. Backing Night’s Watch and something on Over Exposure.

 

Tip: (3) Night’s Watch- $15.00 at TAB

Also Backing: (4) Over Exposure- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Night's Watch, 0.5 units WIN Over Exposure

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

Very interesting race. I thought (1) Probabeel would come up shorter than she has. She’s absolutely thrown in at the races with 60kg as a multiple group 1 winner. First up last prep over 1200m she arguably should’ve won, running 2^nd to Roheryn in the group 3 Show County. That was a better field than she faces here, and although she’s got bigger targets in mind, she could simply be too good for these. I was prepared to take her on, expecting around $3, but at $4.60 I think she has to be a bet.

 

(6) Snapdancer is flying. She won her first two this prep, including a 2.3L win over Tailleur at Randwick. She had her chance at the Gold Coast but wasn’t beaten far by Krone and Athiri. I thought she’d be a bit longer but wouldn’t surprise at all. A soft track would be against her.

 

(7) Lashes ties in with Snapdancer through Tailleur. She was beaten there but is racing well.

 

(4) Bam’s On Fire loves Caulfield and gets Kah first up. Her 2L 3^rd in a Sangster says she’s good enough to win this.

 

Tip: (1) Probabeel- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Probabeel

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

For a comprehensive, runner by runner preview of the Group One C.F. Orr Stakes, please follow this link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/c-f-orr-stakes-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: February 7, 2021, 12:06pm (AEDT)

I think is the best betting race of the card. (2) Greyworm comes here fresh, with an imposing 3/5 first up record. His only run last prep was a 3.3L 7^th to Classique Legend, and he wasn’t particularly suited there. He’s much better when able to control a race, and there’s not much speed here. Some of his Sydney form, including a win over Trekking, makes him hard to beat here. He’s adept on all tracks.

 

(4) Garner is the danger and other horse I’m keen to back. I loved his recent trial at Gawler where he sat on what looked a good speed and kicked clear under minimal riding for a 3.6L win. By all reports the horse is flying, and he was only 0.7L off Diamond Effort at this T/D when first up last prep. He performs best when held up and saved for one last dash at them, which he looks to get here from barrier 2.

 

(3) Bold Star, like Garner, was unlucky in the same race behind Diamond Effort first up last prep. The knock with him is that he struggles to win, but his record here is better than it looks. At $17, perhaps longer the exchange, he’s an easy one to keep on side.

 

(7) How Womantic fell in first up last prep in a mare’s bm84. She trialled well but this is the hardest race she’s had to face and looks too short for mine.

 

(10) Sword Of Mercy maps well and can win- next best.

 

Pretty keen we get a result out of backing Greyworm, Garner and Bold Star. Happy to outlay some decent units on this race, effectively taking around $2.50 each of 3.

 

Tip: (2) Greyworm- $4.40 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (4) Garner- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Bold Star- $17.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Greyworm, 2 units WIN Garner, 0.5 units WIN Bold Star