Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, January 23rd

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

Tough race to start the day here with a lot of two-year-olds who are yet to go to the races. Settled with (8) Ashema from the wide draw and will come in six barriers once scratchings come out. I loved her debut effort against Acrobat, where she went with him for a bit before his class took over and our girl got beat by 2.3 lengths in the end. Despite leading on the day and taking on Acrobat, she managed to beat the rest of the field comfortably by 2.5 lengths, which to me shows she has plenty of guts. Tommy Berry will look to streak forward from the wide draw and put her on the pace once again. She should be pretty good in the fitness department with a tick over trial since her last start and I expect her to be in the finish once again.

(3) Arthur Francis trialled up nicely and will look to box seat behind the leaders from the good draw. In his latest trial, he accelerated nicely up to Sniper Legend before taking it easy to the line, winning the trial easily. Bowman will just be hoping for clear air in the straight to give this bloke every chance.

(1) Chameleon Choice was fair in his lone start in Melbourne, going down by 1.4 lengths in third at Flemington. He is drawn well enough to push forward and sit in a prominent position with Nash aboard and can be a thorn in the side of (8) Ashema.

Tip: (8) Ashema $4.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think Brett Cavanough has got another nice one on his hands and this progressive filly will look to make it 3/3 in her toughest test to date. (9) Water Dove showed a good turn of foot at Wellington last start and didn’t need a lot of encouragement to get going. She was an easy winner in good time and now gets to have a crack at a Highway race. She should come on nicely from that run, so hopefully Rachel King doesn’t get into a battle for speed and either gets the lead or follows them into the race, because she will have plenty to give in the straight with clear air.

(1) Art Cadeau is the clear danger and deserved favourite, even with the 61kg. He showed last start the weight doesn’t worry him and is drawn to get the suck run in behind the speed. With even luck, he will be there again.

(4) Amicus Curiae didn’t handle the going at Gosford last start and will appreciate being back on top of the ground. It will be interesting to see where Bowman puts the gelding from the draw, but with a trouble free run, he will be hard to hold out.

Tip: (9) Water Dove $4.20 Bluebet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Water Dove B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

Going wide here because this girl is major overs despite her usual map. (9) Sparky Girl is a complete forgive after her last start failure on the heavy going at Muswellbrook and will appreciate being back on top of the ground here. She will need luck as she likes to get back and she has drawn a nice barrier to do so before coming wide in the straight. You just have to watch replays of her three runs before her last start to know how good her turn of foot is and there is always speed in these highway races. Providing James Innes Jr gives her plenty of air at the top of the straight, hopefully we will see her flying late!

(1) Melik is returning from a break and has only the one trial this time in. The stable usually don’t bring them to town unless they think they are a legitimate chance so that scares me a touch. Being first-up with the blinkers off and Louise Day in the saddle gives me concern over him doing well but Paul Messara knows what he is doing.

(7) Makana looks an inclusion for exotics ran a surprisingly good race at Muswellbrook last start. She is drawn well and is back on top of the ground, so her chances have increased that little bit more.

Tip: (9) Sparky Girl $35.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Sparky Girl B3TSP, 1 unit PLACE Sparky Girl Middle Tote

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

This is a tricky little race, but I can safely say that all three should be the first three across the line. I have (9) The Face on top, purely from a fitness and map standpoint. He was brilliant first-up, fighting right to the line before being beaten by Salina Dreaming. He then stepped up to the Gosford Guineas, where he was no match for Forbidden Love, but still managed to finish second by over a length. The drop back in grade is ideal and he drops 2kg from that last run also. He is drawn perfectly and is going to be hard to run down.

I will be having a saver bet on (7) Osamu who trialled up well since changing stables. He is yet to win a race in nine starts but has been facing company much stronger than this. He has an ideal draw to do no work behind the leader and Tommy Berry will look to peel out and try to go with (9) The Face.

(2) Eminate is returning off a nice trial but has to contend with a tricky gate. If she had drawn a touch better, I think she would be a good saver bet but I think the fitness of (9) The Face will see him avoid any challenges. Keep an eye on her though, she may just surprise us all first-up.

Tip: (9) The Face $2.50 Bet365

Also Betting: (7) Osamu $5.60 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN The Face B3TSP, 1 unit WIN Osamu B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

The Snitzel colt (5) Rule of Law will be looking to make it three on the trot and to start his new preparation off with a win. He has had two trials in the lead up to this one with an easy time in the first, cruising to the line in second under a hold before being given a bit of a push out in his second and latest trial. He has drawn the middle of the pack which is fine as there is little speed in this race, so Kerrin McEvoy will look to take control of the race. If he can reel off some easy sectionals in front, he is going to be mighty hard to hold out.

(9) Orpheum didn’t finish last preparation the way they would have wanted but she has trialled nicely this time in. Both trials she was given an easy time but really showed some acceleration in her last trial. She is a pretty good each-way price, but tread carefully until it is known she has returned well enough.

(7) Super Effort was scratched from Canterbury last night for this one. Looking to continue trend of his race last start where each runner coming out of that race has won next start. He will appreciate being back on top of the ground and I am sure James McDonald will give him every chance.

Tip: (5) Rule of Law $3.40 Bet365

Also Betting: (9) Orpheum $15.20 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Rule of Law B3TSP, 1 unit PLACE Orpheum Middle Tote

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

I think (3) New Arrangement can turn the tables on his rival and favourite (4) Sacramento here. (3) New Arrangement was very game last start after being pushed wide at the 900m mark and had to race the remainder of the race three wide without cover. Whilst all this was happening (4) Sacramento got a slight breather sitting outside the leader from the 1000m – 800m and again from the 800m – 600m, which proved vital in the closing stages. (4) Sacramento does meet (3) New Arrangement 1.5kg better off at the weights but that can easily be offset with the change of rider for our bloke in James McDonald. There isn’t a lot of pace in this race, so both runners should get an easy time of it in front and it will be a battle up the straight.

(6) Accountability could be the one to upset the both if the map doesn’t go to plan and being back on top of the ground is a massive boost.

Tip: (3) New Arrangement $3.90 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN New Arrangement B3TSP

 

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

On face value it looked an easy race to assess but usually that means it won’t be that easy on the track. Sticking with (10) Blondeau here after his good win on the heavy going at Warwick Farm. He beat home Stormy Rock and Snitzify (who has come out and won since) by less than a length coming from the second half of the field. His first-up run was good also, finishing less than a length off Brutality at Warwick Farm and beating home rival and favourite (2) Ulysses by 0.2 length. I think (10) Blondeau is much better suited on top of the ground and will get that chance here to knock off his first good track win since being gelded. Let’s hope the track is playing nicely at this point of the day because he will be giving a start.

(2) Ulysses is coming off a nice win and will go up 2kg from that run, which will be offset by the claim of Chris Williams. He drops back 100m which looks a nice move and on paper looks to get an easy lead. If this is the case, he will be hard to catch.

(5) Zegalo is the import having his first start in Australia. May need the run here but I will be watching intently.  

Tip: (10) Blondeau $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

I think (10) Thy Kingdom Come is overs in this race and I am happy to bet on him each-way. He looked to have knocked up a touch last start when running hard with (8) Bandersnatch towards the finish. Vision through the line showed him pick up again late which is always a good sign. He is drawn much better here than last start, so I am hoping Rachel King puts him in a nice midfield position on the rail and has a crack at them late. There looks to be a fair amount of speed in this race which will suit him and his late run and the 1400m will look spot on for him here. Let’s hope he isn’t a run short.

(8) Bandersnatch will be the saver bet here and was impressive last start without winning. He is at peak fitness now, is drawn well and will love the extra 200m. He maps to sit off this hot speed before making his move in the straight. Clearly the one to beat.

(9) Chat looks the other chance, and it has been well found in the market. He also carries no weight and will love being back on top of the ground over the 1400m.

Tip: (10) Thy Kingdom Come $15.00 Sportsbet E/W

Also Betting: (8) Bandersnach $2.80 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit EACH WAY Thy Kingdom Come B3TSP, 2 units WIN Bandersnatch B3TSP

 

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

(3) Selica looks one of the better bets on the day and I think she is overs at the price. She fought hard when going down by 1.2 lengths in the Belle of the Turf at Gosford on ground she isn’t a fan of. Before that was her first-up run where she couldn’t make ground on the leader and eventual winner Vitesse, though she found a second wind late to hit the line nicely. Since the Belle of the Turf run she has had a nice tick over trial to keep her fitness up and will his the mile here at Randwick third-up. Her two goes on a good track last preparation were over a mile or further and they both resulted in good runs in Group 3 company. This is a benchmark 78 where she will get a 2kg claim of Louise Day and is drawn to sit behind this hot speed. I will be very surprised if she isn’t in the finish.

(4) Game of Thorns hasn’t been the same mare for a while now, but she has shown some glimpses that she may be heading back up. A pair of placings over her last two will have her in good stead for this one and a good track will be to her liking. She will be hitting the line late.

(5) Dame Kiri has been in very good form and from a positive draw can be a good each-way bet and an extra for the exotics.

Tip: (3) Selica $8.10 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Selica B3TSP

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

They haven’t hit the ceiling with this bloke yet, so I am happy to stick with (5) All Time Legend here despite the short odds. The intention wasn’t to lead last start, but that’s what happened, and he showed his class in doing so. I think a lot of punters were expecting him to be a bit more dominant but given the situation, I would be quite happy with the run. Although he is drawn the inside, there is plenty of speed draw in the wider barrier, so I am expecting them to sit off the speed around fourth or fifth. I like the step up to a mile and being back on top of the ground will surely benefit.

(13) Cisco Bay is in some good form and is firing fit. He gets back on top of the ground and drops 4kg from his last run. He is drawn ideally and is a fair each-way prospect to knock off the favourite.

(2) Our Candidate is returning after a year off the scenes and I will be interested to see how he has returned.

Tip: (5) All Time Legend $2.55 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet