Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, February 20th

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(11) Vowmaster is now $1.60 after scratchings so it becomes a no bet race, but he might be the most exciting horse to run all day. He’s two from two and his victories have been super impressive. He charged home at Kyneton on debut and then crabbed around the Valley at his second start, but class took him to a 2.5L win. It was the kind of win that makes you sit back and take notice. He has his first run in Sydney now and he won his recent trial by 6L. Really looking forward to him running but the heavy track is enough to sit out at that price.

(13) Andermatt is certainly no hack, winning on debut and then running 2nd to Anders. He’s been off the track a while but has had three trials to get him fit.

Tip: (11) Vowmaster $1.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Absolutely no interest in the Highways, but…

(7) Commando Hunt can turn the tables on Katgully Red from last start. He won consecutive races on heavy ground leading into last start and with the small weight swing, as well as Katgully Red’s poor record on wet tracks, I expect that result to be reversed.

Grab an early beer and wait for the better races.

Tip: (7) Commando Hunt $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Very tricky race.

(7) Aliferous is an each way chance here at double figure odds. She normally runs well first up. Two preps ago she placed behind Master Of Wine first up, and last prep she placed over 1400m on a heavy track first up (and that was without any luck). She doesn’t win out of turn, but she’ll be around the mark here at $4.40 the drum.

(6) Yao Dash is the race fit horse but he’s yet to place at this distance and is some query on a bog track.

(9) Subedar was down to run last weekend but was scratched and brought here instead. He ran 2nd to All Time Legend first up (good form) and has had six weeks between runs now. Again, a real wet track is some query.

(3) Ziegfeld makes his Australian debut. Nothing should worry him here – he handles wet ground, has won at the distance, races well fresh and gets Bowman on. He ran last in his trial but he wasn’t asked to do anything. Respecting him in this race.

Tip: (7) Aliferous to place $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units PLACE Aliferous

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I’m with (2) Positive Peace first up here. It’s interesting that they elect to resume with no public trials under the belt, indicating she might be a touch fresher than what she was last prep. She’s two from two at this distance, has won on heavy ground before, maps to get a very soft lead and should take some running down.

(4) Asiago has a good first up record, including a win first up last prep over a similar distance. She’s also won on heavy ground before. She actually met the likes of Positive Peace and Subpoenaed first up a couple of preps ago and ran 3rd. Positive Peace meets her better at the weights, although she was in form and three runs into a prep when they met on that occasion. Chance.

(3) Subpoenaed has the ability and does go well fresh, but very wet ground is somewhat of a concern. The same can be said about her stablemate (1) Madam Rouge.

Tip: (2) Positive Peace $3.75 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Positive Peace

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Happy to stay out of this, with a number of two-year-olds tackling a bog track for the first time.

(1) Paulele was dominant on debut and backed that up with another easy win at his second start. Hard to get a gauge on the form as the horses he beat last start haven’t been seen since. He was given a very quiet trial leading into this and so long as he handles the wet, looks hard to beat.

I thought we were home on (5) Home Affairs at the 200m last start, but he was paddling late and ultimately run down in the final strides. He gets a gun run here from barrier 1, providing the inside isn’t quicksand, and he should be better off for that run given he only trialled once before it. Will be right there again.

(4) Tiger Of Malay was backed from $17 into $9 on debut and got the money, so clearly they knew he had a bit of talent. He trialled behind the likes of Shaquero and Remarque, which is a good reference. No surprise to see him win again.

Happy to sit and watch.

Tip: (1) Paulele 3.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Tricky race this.

(1) Mustajeer won this race first up last year off an identical set up. He resumes from a spell having last raced in the Melbourne Cup and hasn’t trialled publicly leading in. He was nowhere near his best in the Spring but if turns up near his best today, he’ll give this a good shake. The wet ground helps his cause.

(4) Paths Of Glory is also first up and I think he’s a sneaky chance. He did nothing in his first two starts last prep but every run after that was very good. I think he’s a pretty good stayer and at $26 he looks over the odds.

(11) Sacramento has returned in good order and comes into this off consecutive wins. Some query on a real wet deck but he maps to get control out the front and will be hard to run down.

(6) Collide makes his Australian debut here. He’s won three from five when first up and four from six on soft ground. He did fail on his lone try on a heavy track so that remains a small query.

Something small on Mustajeer and Paths Of Glory for me.

Tip: (1) Mustajeer $16 TAB

Also Backing: (4) Paths Of Glory $26 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Mustajeer, 0.25 units WIN Paths Of Glory

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

The Hobartville Stakes is a race normally won by the top-quality three-year-olds. This year’s race shapes as a fascinating contest as there’s a few small knocks on each of those at the top of the market.

(1) Aegon is the New Zealand horse out to break the hoodoo of Kiwi three-year-olds in this race. He’s undefeated from four starts, which includes a Listed race, a Group 2 and the Group 1 2000 Guineas. He dops back to 1400m after winning over 1600m first up, so that’s a query, and history is against him. The wet conditions are in his favour though. All four starts have been on soft ground and being by Sacred Falls, there’s no doubt he’ll go on heavy.

(3) North Pacific was disappointing first up in the Eskimo Prince and he raced like he needed ground this preparation. He trialled ordinarily and his first up run was much the same, so it’s hard to be confident that he’ll turn that around here. He was dominant in two starts on heavy ground last prep, but is he going as well this time around?

(4) Peltzer was impressive first up in the Eskimo Prince, taking his record t Randwick to five wins from five starts. He’s also four from four on rain-affected ground now. If he runs like that, he’ll win today, but all three of his losses have come here at Rosehill.

I think outside those obvious chances, there is value in (5) Prime Star who just continues to show up and run well. He split Rocketing By and Ole Kirk first up, he’s adept on wet ground and he’s finished in the top two at eight of his 10 career starts. He was about 3L off Peltzer last prep in the Bondi, but he did run him to 0.5L the start prior. Could this race being at Rosehill mean a turnaround in the result?

I’m going to take a punt here on Aegon breaking the hoodoo, and Prime Star as the value in the race.

Tip: (1) Aegon $4.00 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Prime Star $14.20 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Aegon, 0.5 units E/W Prime Star

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

I think (1) Handle The Truth is a decent bet at value here. The early price is gone but he’s still double figures. He has a great first up record with four wins from seven starts and he’s also had two wins and a 2^nd from three starts on heavy ground. He’s yet to win from five starts at 1100m but he’s won eight races over 1000m and 1200m so it really shouldn’t be a big issue. How tuned up he is first up from a 15-week spell with no public trial is a query, along with a 3kg apprentice on, but I think at the odds he’s worth a bet.

(4) Munitions is a French import that had one run at Flemington back in October over 1400m, where he finished midfield. He was first up from a 60-week spell on that occasion. He returns here as a gelding and with a trial leading in. JMac goes on, he’s won three from five on soft ground and interestingly, he tackles an 1100m race first up. Looks a big player.

(7) Spaceboy is a hard horse to catch. He really would have tested Written Beauty last start if he hadn’t have missed the kick. He loves wet ground and has placed in six of his seven starts over this distance so is sure to be around the mark.

(10) Black Magnum can go well fresh and (12) Emanate is more than capable.

Tip: (1) Handle The Truth $11.60

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Handle The Truth

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Pretty keen on this French import by the name of (4) Lackeen, who lines up for his first start on Australian soil here. He’s had just four starts, three over the mile and one at 2000m, but here he is resuming over 1400m. His only trial came at Randwick two weeks ago and I thought it was very good. He came from the back of the field, weaved through traffic and picked up late under little pressure to run 2nd. JMac rode him there and sticks with him for raceday. There is some query on the map and also a very wet track, but I think he finds a very suitable race and looks the best horse, so I’m happy to have a decent crack.

(16) Wheelhouse looks the clear and obvious danger if he gains a run. He needs one more scratching at the time of writing. His first up win on the Kenso was very good.

(5) Fulmina is fresh up from a six-week break and drops back to a BM78 after racing in much harder grade her past two.

Tip: (4) Lackeen $3.30

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Lackeen