Sandown Racing Tips: Saturday, September 25th

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 12:11pm (AEDT)

(4) Esta La Roca does look the obvious, dropping heavily in grade. She had an easy time in front but stuck on well for 4th in the Mcewen, only beaten by The Inferno, Portland Sky and September Run who are all chances in the Moir on Friday. Gets in with 54kg after the claim, she’s the fastest horse in the race, should lead and win.

(1) Deroche is a handy Tasmanian mare with an outstanding overall record (11 wins from 18 starts). She won a 3 horse race at $1.40 first up but she does have a very strong SP profile, albeit in Tassie, and is already a group 3 winner over 1400m. Not really an 1000m horse but she’s classy enough at double figures to save on.

(5) Twist Of Fury is the main speed danger and quick herself, but she’s stepping up a fair bit in grade and might end up being crossed by Esta La Roca mid race.

(3) How Womantic fell in first up two preps ago before going winless last prep in stronger company. Don’t like her at 1000m but she’s got a good fresh record.

Tip: (4) Esta La Roca- $2.75 at BoomBet

Value: (1) Deroche- $12.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.75 units WIN Esta La Roca, 0.25 units WIN Deroche

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 12:46pm (AEDT)

Very tough race. I was with (12) Sirileo Miss first up at 1300m and loved her turn of foot to put the race away late. Up 100m in trip is only going to suit and she maps for another lovely run.

At huge odds (1) Mystery Shot isn’t the worst. He was very plain first up in a much stronger race won by Corner Pocket but can improve 2nd up at 1400m. He did a similar thing first up last prep, beaten out of sight, but 2nd up gave Regardsmaree 4kg and ran 2nd to that horse, beating home Imperial Lad. At the price he’s worth a small bet each way for what is probably the most talented horse in the race when he’s at his very best.

Absolute raffle otherwise. Sirileo Miss is the horse to beat but short enough in the market, something small Mystery Shot.

Tip: (1) Mystery Shot- $31.00/8.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Mystery Shot

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 1:21pm (AEDT)

(3) Lina’s Legend should be winning again here. He was far too good last start in bm64 grade, beating a fairly handy horse in Fortunate Kiss. His main danger Sandy Prince is all but confirmed to scratch and race Friday night, so he maps to do no work from barrier 2 and I think he wins this and puts himself in a top 4 Caulfield Guineas picture.

(4) Jungle Magnate beat Mac ‘n’ Cheese on debut which reads quite well. He comes here first up off the one trial where he went okay in 3rd, beaten a long way by two tearaway leaders on a heavy track. He got every favour on debut and outside Mac ‘n’ Cheese who should’ve won, that race wasn’t particularly good.

(7) Taunting can improve- he never looked comfortable whatsoever last start and drawn wide here on a bigger track, he can settle better and bounce back to form, although 1400m is unknown.

Deductions still to come with Sandy Prince but I think Lina’s Legend will start close to odds on once he comes out.

Tip: (3) Lina’s Legend- $2.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Lina’s Legend

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 1:56pm (AEDT)

Good little Thousand Guineas lead up. (2) Zouzarella is the horse to beat coming off two impressive wins, the latest over most of her key rivals at The Valley, sliding forward mid race and running the fastest splits home over 1200m. Can’t see 1400m posing much of an issue, it’s just what price you want to take.

(3) Mac ‘n’ Cheese looks the big improver. I loved her first up run behind Zouzarella, getting back to last and not handling the tight track all that well. Once she balanced up her last 150m and work through the line was very good- her last 200m was just 0.06 seconds off the winner, and I daresay her last 100m would’ve been a couple of tenths better. Given she was first up and has already won at 1400m, she’s going to give Zouzarella a race.

(5) Literary Magnate ran 3rd in that race and went well. I thought Mac ‘n’ Cheese was a better run coming from much further back, but Literary Magnate was first up too.

(8) Fortunate Kiss brings the different form, coming out of a bm64 behind Lina’s Legend which I think is fairly good form. She was 1000m up to 1300m there so could improve again.

Tip: (3) Mac ‘n’ Cheese- $6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mac ‘n’ Cheese

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 2:31pm (AEDT)

Tricky race. (2) Elephant stepped up to WFA and went very well in the Feehan, just nabbed late by Superstorm. Maps to sit just off the leader and will be hard to beat. D Lane jumps off Harbour Views to stick with him and I think he’s probably the horse to beat.

(3) Harbour Views was a shock winner first up, beating Cherry Tortoni and Ayrton. He’s obviously a classy horse when right but hasn’t quite lived up to his potential. Still, this level of race is definitely within his grasp.

(6) Cherry Tortoni was just done on the line by Harbour Views first up. He generally improves 2nd up, having run very well in a Stutt Stakes behind Glenfiddich two preps ago and a huge run from a mile back in the Australian Guineas 2nd up last prep.

Tip: (2) Elephant- $2.70 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 3:06pm (AEDT)

He hasn’t won in a while, but this does look a good race for (1) Dr Drill. If you go back through his last five runs, he’s a huge chance here. He ran 0.3L 2nd at listed level in Adelaide five back, the track was an absolute bog at Sandown four back, he ran 0.2L 2nd to Furrion three back, didn’t stay 2500m two back and comes out of potentially the best lead up last start when wide without cover, narrowly beaten by Degraves and Heart Of Puissance. He gets a lovely map from 4, the 1800m is probably his perfect distance and he can win.

Stablemate (5) Floating Artist has won two in a row but has had every favour both wins. He maps pretty well again from barrier 5, he’s just getting short in the market now.

(3) Furrion can improve out of that race, given he was 8 weeks between runs. He did beat Dr Drill at Flemington two back after running 2nd in the Winter Championship Final. He looks overs at the price.

(7) Skyman had his chance in the same race behind Floating Artist but did start $2.70 favourite and didn’t run poorly. He draws barrier 1 for the third time in a row, and I’d love to see him drawn out with a quieter ride.

Tip: (1) Dr Drill- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Furrion- $18.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Dr Drill, 0.25 units WIN Furrion

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Wasn’t much point doing a runner by runner of the Underwood Stakes, with just the 5 runners. Clearly (2) Zaaki is going to take a power of beating. The Cox Plate favourite resumed with a dominant win over 1400m, eased down late, and he’s obviously going to be better suited at 1800m. If he performs anywhere near his Queensland form he’ll win, but there’s no way I could take anything under $1.50. He probably ends up leading too which is interesting.

(5) Probabeel can improve on the quick backup especially if we’re on a dry track, but the platform up to 1800m perhaps isn’t ideal. She looks the quinella horse and if for some reason we got double figures with unlimited Zaaki hype, I could be entertained to have something on her.

Tip: (2) Zaaki- $1.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

Having something on the Tasmanian raider (2) Newhart who I think can measure up to these. He’s already a two time listed winner at his last two runs, which were a 3.8L demolition of Mystic Journey and a comfortable win at $1.80 over Mandela Effect, who we’ve seen run very well in group class in Melbourne. He goes well fresh, gets a lovely run from barrier 4 and has had three trials to prepare.

(6) Chaillot is a bomb fresh with a perfect 3/3 record. She’s a classy mare although I do prefer her drawn out because she gets a fair way back and will need luck. Regardless, she’s going to be hard to beat with 54kg in the race named after her sire.

(3) Ironclad had big wraps on him heading into this prep, with many suggesting he was a Toorak Handicap or maybe even Cox Plate contender. That didn’t go to plan first up in Adelaide where he raced wide, dropped out badly and pulled up lame behind Second Slip, finishing last. He can improve lengths but he’s also back to 1300m and drawn wide.

(1) So Si Bon was only 3.6L off Probabeel and Arcadia Queen first up last prep in the Futurity. Obviously he can mix his form but his best is definitely good enough to beat these.

Tip: (2) Newhart- $10.00/3.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Newhart

Odds Last Updated: September 25, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

(11) Flexible is a bet in the last. Her win first up was good, giving Ayahuasca 4kg and sprinting past her late. She was kept in work since December last year and didn’t win since early February, but some of her runs in 3yo grade were excellent, including a 3rd to Duais in the Adrian Knox and a 4th in the Australasian Oaks. Barrier 4 is maybe a touch tricky but she showed decent speed first up and can hopefully hold her spot midfield. Drops down in the weights, has upside, good price.

(3) Aussie Nugget charged home 2nd up at The Valley and looks ready to win 3rd up where he has a good record. I think 1800m is his sweet spot but barrier 1 isn’t ideal.

(8) Thought Of That finally won a race last start and did it very nicely. His best is good enough, just whether he can produce it again.

(15) Hasseltoff is another ready to win and plummets in the weights with Willo sticking. Draw isn’t ideal but I could save on him.

Tip: (11) Flexible- $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Saver: (15) Hasseltoff- $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Flexible, 0.25 units WIN Hasseltoff