Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 17th

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

Interesting little maiden. (13) Derive was very good first up in a stronger race, going back from the wide gate and looking a good chance at the 200m but she just peaked on her run late, which the market suggested she would. The query here is the draw again. She is a horse that can settle on speed and fitter here 2^nd up it wouldn’t shock to see them position up, which makes her very hard to beat.

 

(7) Chart Buster probably has the best form from his debut campaign as a 2yo, 45 weeks ago. He started $3.50 and ran a narrow 2nd to Crown Mint, beating home Ain’tnodeeldun, and again was a close placing behind Itzhot and Flying Award at his most recent start. Whether he can bring that first up off a long break as a gelding is the query.

 

(9) Silly Point sees the return of Dwayne Dunn and looks to map well. His debut at this track over 1200m behind Jonny Angel was good but he was disappointing at The Valley when fading to finish 4^th.

 

(10) Groovy Kinda Love next best but will get over a bit further.

Tip: (13) Derive-$3.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Derive

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

(1) Lightsaber was a tough winner of the main form lead up, sitting wide on speed but proving too strong. He draws perfectly in barrier 3 and will be hard to beat again.

 

(3) Frontman finished off well behind Lightsaber last start on debut, running the race fastest last 400/200m. He drew barrier one there and had a bit of trouble finding clear running, which could happen again here.

 

(2) Daily Bugle was a nice winner on debut at Pakenham, running the night’s fastest last 600/400m with a nice turn of foot. He can definitely win off that effort.

 

(6) Alegron was very well respected behind star 2yo Profiteer on debut down the straight but was beaten over 10L. It wouldn’t shock to see him improve with Olly opting to stick with the Teofilo colt.

Tip: (1) Lightsaber- $3.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Not sure what to do with the favourite (1) Shepard who is on the quick backup from a 2200m Bendigo race where he started odds on and was ultimately disappointing, finishing 4^th. The run prior behind Takumi at Caulfield probably wins this, but he’s not a horse I’ve ever found heavily, and I don’t want to get involved off the last start.

 

(3) Perfect Illusion is consistent and should appreciate getting back out to the 2400m with D Lane aboard. He hasn’t won in a while and doesn’t look much value at $5.50.

 

(5) Muleta steps up to the 2400m for the first time off a good run over 1800m behind War Critic and Hasseltoff. That’s the best form, but the extra 600m has to be the query.

 

(4) The Mockingbird is going well and has claims.

Putrid race and put simply I want nothing to do with it!

Tip: (1) Shepard- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 3, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

I think (7) Night Passage should’ve won in Adelaide last start in what was an ugly watch. She was badly held up in the straight with Vorster looking to come between runners. He eventually took his medicine and came off heels, running on very strongly to just miss a fairly handy horse in Medieval Miss, who has placed in listed grade since. The query here is the map- she was ridden quiet last start but did lead and bolt in three back at Sale. There isn’t a stack of pace here and if they come across, she’ll be very hard to beat.

 

(6) Holster is the danger. He was given no hope last start when back and wide on a leader biased day. I thought he ran as well as could be expected, and J Kah jumps aboard here which is obviously a huge tick. He’s had 4 weeks between runs now and does step up to 1800m for the first time which is a query.

 

(3) Blue Ocean should be ready to show his best 3^rd up. The line between he and Holster is Magnossiva. They both started $11 against that horse and whilst Blue Ocean finished ~2L closer, Holster was wide the trip. I do wonder if Blue Ocean might already be looking for 2000m now as he seems to have come back quite dour.

 

As the market would suggest, they’re clearly the three main winning hopes. (2) Irish Delight can roll forward and utilise the 3kg claim- next best.

Tip: (7) Night Passage- $3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Night Passage

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

All about (4) Heart Of Puissance here- firstly whether he’ll even run. He’s had plenty of issues and the stable took no risk in carefully selecting his first up run, which ended up at Caulfield over 1400m. I thought his effort there was outstanding behind Regardsmaree, who is flying and won at stakes level (beating Buffalo River) on Saturday. He got back there and hit the line very strongly for 3^rd. The query is a firm track- if we’re on a good 3 by this stage, which is probably likely, they might scratch. If he’s here I think he’s the best of the day- if they scratch, so be it and we get money back.

 

(8) Dirty Deeds ran in the same race and had an easier run midfield, yet Heart Of Puissance went past him late. I think he needs a wet track to really show his best and off their runs I can’t have him over Heart Of Puissance, even with J Kah sticking.

 

(11) Diamonds’n’stones is the danger and will be hard to beat if Heart Of Puissance comes out. He’s won his last two racing on speed and got the better of a fairly handy horse in Duke Of Neworleans at Pakenham last start. He gets in with just 53.5kg after the claim, looks to lead from barrier 3 and if he skips away, Heart Of Puissance will need to be at his best to run him down, conceding him 7.5kg.

 

(9) Translator looks ready to win 3^rd up and the extra 100m will definitely suit, but barrier 2 could be a bit sticky.

 

If Heart Of Puissance stays in the race, I’m backing the stable is confident enough to run him on a firm deck. If that’s the case, he’ll be very hard to beat as the most talented horse in the race.

Tip: (4) Heart Of Puissance- $3.75 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Heart Of Puissance

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Deep little race with a few angles. I didn’t mind the first up run of (8) Merchant Of Venice down the straight over 1200m. He clearly wanted further but kept trucking through the line for 4^th, beaten 2.75L. Back onto a firmer deck and up to 1400m he can definitely improve. He did run a huge 6^th, beaten 1.9L by Challiot and Titan Blinders at Flemington first up in the Spring. He’s still very lightly raced and gets Mcneil on with just 54kg.

 

(4) Alburq beat him home there but is stuck on 1 win from 20 starts. If you’re backing him to win at $3.40 in this sort of race, you’ll go broke fast.

 

(6) Triton Rising looks the danger. He was a good run behind the progressive Second Slip last start over this T/D. D Lane sticks and he’ll be running on.

 

(5) Imperial Lad looks the leader and did stick on well behind Regardsmaree and Mystery Shot at Caulfield. He meets Triton Rising 2kg better (mainly because of Teo’s claim) and he can give cheek again, but I do think 1400m sees him out.

 

Wouldn’t be surprised if we got a bit better about Merchant Of Venice, but I like him 2^nd up at 1400m down on the minimum. He’s only had 7 starts and can win a nice race this prep.

 

Tip: (8) Merchant Of Venice- $4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Merchant Of Venice

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Tough 1000m contest. (4) Bons Abroad has jumped out well and did win at this T/D first up last prep in a similar race. She progressed nicely last prep and wasn’t far off some much smarter mares in Saturday grade after. She’s perhaps better over a bit further and on a wet deck, although her good track stats are a bit misleading. Either way, I think she’s the best horse in the race and at $6.00 she’s a good bet.

 

(3) Modear won over this T/D first up and hasn’t been far away since. The market seems to love this horse- she’s started short odds in stronger races recently but hasn’t been unable to win. The jockey booking is enough to put me off at $4, but she’s got a huge last 200m on her day and can definitely win.

 

(1) Heka Express ran 2^nd to Elderflower two back which is very good form. She backed it up with a strong win over this T/D last start and can’t be discounted despite the rise in weight.

 

(10) Tarcoola Diva won nicely as the $1.85 favourite in a much easier race at Sale first up. She’s not without a hope and did take on some hot 3yo races last prep.

 

Tip: (4) Bons Abroad- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Bons Abroad

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

Thought there were a couple of horses at good odds here. (7) Ruler By Choice comes here first up off a very stylish Morphettville trial, leading under her own steam to win by 2.5L whilst the horses behind (who aren’t much good) were under hard riding to keep up. She looks to own this race from barrier 6 and does have a strong SP profile, including a $3.40 SP (finished 4^th beaten 2L) to Lakhani Rose and Hearty Lass, which I think is good enough for this. Hoping this is the prep she really delivers on that SP profile and this looks a nice race.

 

(1) Bel My Pago looks the value. The former WA mare ran on the Lakeside over 1300m first up in arguably a stronger race, running the meeting’s fastest last 600m behind Need New Friends. She got back to last there after drawing very wide and showing zero intent. She doesn’t generally have much speed so barrier 2 could be tricky but some of her WA form is solid and at $14 she’s definitely worth including.

 

(4) Don’ttelltheboss finished 1.5L off Bel My Pago when they met but did improve last start when getting to the outside, just missing Safe Passage. She likely gets a long way back from the gate again.

 

(8) Knowles looks too short despite J Kah jumping back on. The 1300m is a huge query for a horse that doesn’t finish off at 1200m.

Tip: (7) Ruler By Choice- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (1) Bel My Pago- $14.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ruler By Choice, 0.5 units WIN Bel My Pago