Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 30th

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

(5) Crestani is racing well but his pattern has led to a very low strike rate. The run two back behind Esta La Roca reads very well and he was solid up to 1300m last start.

(2) Semenuk was far too good on debut at Mildura and should measure up in town.

(1) Kentucky Casanova should get a lovely map from barrier 5 after leading all the way on debut at Swan Hill.

(7) Palumbo will be better over further but has the best form in the race and Zahra booked first up is very interesting.

Tip: (5) Crestani- $3.10 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

Tough race. (2) Rock Of Kryptonite failed badly on the heavy track which was blamed for the poor result, but was dominant first up and very good 2nd up winning in SA. Notably he gets a huge jockey upgrade with Zahra taking the ride from a good gate.

(5) No Quarantine was very good on debut, doing plenty wrong and plenty of work but still chasing well to score. The 2nd horse started $1.75 and won by 4.2L at his next start and if he can overcome the wide draw he should measure up.

(3) El Salto struck a wet track for the first time at Wangaratta and reportedly didn’t appreciate it. His form last prep in 3yo Saturday grade reads well.

(7) Thunder Point was good winning on debut but drops back to 1200m.

Tip: (2) Rock Of Kryptonite- $9.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (5) No Quarantine- $7.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Rock Of Kryptonite, 0.5 units WIN No Quarantine

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

Keen on (2) Mr Mooj, who I thought would be a lot shorter in the market. He was unlucky not to finish much closer two back at 1800m and was far too good stepping up to 2400m on a heavy track at Sandown last start. He got a lovely run on speed there with the light weight and goes up to 59.5kg here but I think he’s still got plenty of upside and maps for the same run as last start.

(3) Nordic Pride meets Mr Mooj 6kg better for a 1.8L defeat at Sandown but draws very wide here after getting every chance on speed last start. He also started $10 there to Mr Mooj’s $6.50 and are the same price here, with a 3kg claimer taking the ride.

(4) Slipintothis was dominant last start in an easier race at Sale. This is harder and the map isn’t as favourable.

(10) Lofty Heights could be ready 3rd up. He gets to 2400m quickly but likes wet ground and looked in need of more ground when hitting the line well 2nd up. Perhaps now they’ll ride him forward up in trip down to 54.5kg.

Tip: (2) Mr Mooj- $4.50 at Sportsbet

Value: (10) Lofty Heights- $18/4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Mr Mooj, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Lofty Heights

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(2) Carrie is the mare in form who should race on speed and be hard to get past. She’s had a gap between runs but that’s generally fine with O’Brien’s horses, and I really liked her last 200m at Cranbourne when looking challenged with 60kg.

(11) Perennial could be suited up to 2100m after hitting the line well over a mile behind Leale last start. She’s certainly up to this class, it’s just where she gets to on the map and how big a head start she gives Carrie.

(3) Crimson Ace was okay at this T/D last start against the boys and will find this a bit easier. The run at Flemington prior was good behind Lunar Flare.

(4) Nerve Not Verve would be a good chance at her best but is out of form, although did show glimpses in the Lunar Flare race, only 1.8L behind Crimson Ace.

Tip: (2) Carrie- $4.80 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Carrie

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(6) Wilmot Pass was good late as usual at Caulfield two back and was a distant 2nd when no hope on the biased track at Sandown behind Sir Kalahad. Gets Kah but will get a long way back again.

(11) Rolling Moss will go forward from a wide gate and is racing well. Doesn’t win out of turn but is consistent and if the track is playing on speed expect him to be in the finish.

(12) Lowanna Magic ran very well at Swan Hill, splitting Air Defence and Fundraiser. Another that just depends how far back on the map he gets, but if the track is fair he’ll be charging late.

(3) Can’t Be Done can improve 2nd up.

Tip: (12) Lowanna Magic- $10.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Lowanna Magic

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(11) Smokin’ Romans should’ve won last start over this T/D when held up and flashing home to just miss at $1.90. Gets an airborne Willo back in town, actually drops 1kg from last start and proved he can handle a bit of sting out. With a drying track and the 2100m run under his belt, he should be going very close.

(2) Vegas Knight had a nice run last start and battled well for 2nd, just nailed late by Lunar Flare. Will go forward and Zahra sticks.

(8) Duke Of Plumpton was close behind Smokin’ Romans last start and gets in light after the claim. A drying track is against.

Tip: (11) Smokin’ Romans- $2.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Smokin’ Romans

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

(10) Influential Jack battled away well 2nd up and could be ready to peak. Has won 2 from 3 when 3rd up and Lane sticks.

(12) Unfair Dismissal was a good run in the same race and is another that generally improves lengths into the prep- he’s had 11 starts 1st/2nd up for just one placing, but 4 starts when 3rd up for a win and a 3rd.

(5) Just Jake has an outstanding 1400m record and will be hoping the track stays wet. Up in grade but racing well.

Tip: (10) Influential Jack- $4.80 at TAB

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(3) Nikau Spur is still the best horse in the race and can continue to improve. Forgive the Warrnambool miss when back in the field and pulling up lame, he was too good with 61.5kg on the Hillside with a big gap back to 3rd. They’ve opted for a claim here and I don’t mind him fresh.

(10) Ellis Park was good first up and did win 2nd up last prep in easier grade. Has come back well.

(14) Irish Rockstar was backed late and bolted in at Warrnambool on a heavy track. Form prior was just average and I’ve got no idea what to make of him away from his home track.

(15) White Hibiscus has some strong SP’s over the summer and her best would measure up here.

Tip: (3) Nikau Spur- $3.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Nikau Spur

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Have to be with (2) Chief Altony here even with the jockey booking. I’m fairly confident he wins with clear room earlier last start when backed off the map, and off that run he wants 1600m which he gets here. Back onto a track with some give definitely suits as well, Stockdale will just need to give him a good ride from 2. Not sure what the market does- they could find his dominant SP last start in a bm78, or be against with Stockdale’s 4% recent winning strike rate.

(6) Orleans Rock is ready to win 3rd up after hitting the line well behind Scantoon last start. He’ll get a long way back from the wide gate again.

(9) Faithful Diamond is the value. I was keen on her at Caulfield but she was saved for this easier assignment, which was probably the right call. She’s airborne with the blinkers on and will put herself on speed. At $17 I’ll definitely be having something on.

(8) Excelleration can mix his form but the 2nd to Over The Sky last start when ridden more positively reads well.

Tip: (2) Chief Altony- $3.50 at TAB

Value: (9) Faithful Diamond- $17/4.33 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Chief Altony, 0.5 units E/W Faithful Diamond