Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, June 30th

Race 1 Vinery Stud Mdn Hcp (1100m) 12:50pm (AEDT)
1. Empress Daisy (3) J: Regan Bayliss (58kg) T: M J Dunn	12	12	11	11	12.2	12
2. Firstluv (1) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (58kg) T: Bjorn Baker	5.5	5	5.5	5.5	5.6	5
3. Miss Lenorr (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (58kg) T: Matthew Smith
4. Misty Dreams (7) J: Tommy Berry (58kg) T: P & P Snowden	8	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.7	7.5
5. Sky Command (11) J: Brenton Avdulla (58kg) T: G Portelli	8.5	9	8.5	10	8.4	9
6. Sneaky Paige (8) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: Mark Newnham	3	3	3	3.1	3.15	2.9
7. Whispering Cate (5) J: Jay Ford (58kg) T: Cheryl Roberts
8. Williams Bay (12) J: Jean Van Overmeire (58kg) T: R & M Freedman
9. Falsetto (4) J: Tim Clark (57.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	4	4	4	4.2	3.95	4
10. Mikasa (2) J: Nash Rawiller (57.5kg) T: John Thompson
11. Tanzimat (10) J: Ms Rachel King (57kg) T: James Cummings	12	12	13	12	9.7	12
12. Marishiten (9) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: John Thompson

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

(9) Falsetto was hard in the market on debut on the back of some good trials but didn’t have much go right on the day. Will only improve from that experience and I like the fact Clark sticks for the ride again today. Think she has ability and will improve 2nd up.

(6) Sneaky Paige makes her debut and has looked good at the trials. Stable/jockey combination has been in strong form and she wouldn’t need to be a star to get away with this. 

(2) Firstluv comes out of the same race as Falsetto and beat him home on the day. That was a very encouraging debut and she looks a big chance of breaking through.

Tip: (9) Falsetto - $4.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Falsetto

Race 2 Harry Angel @ Darley Mdn Hcp (1100m) 1:25pm (AEDT)
1. King Of Sparta (14) J: Regan Bayliss (59.5kg) T: P & P Snowden
2. Famous Pedrille (5) J: Andrew Adkins (57.5kg) T: R J Quinton
3. Clemenceau (2) J: Tommy Berry (57kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes	3.9	3.9	3.9	4	4.05	3.9
4. Dragonstone (10) J: Joshua Parr (57kg) T: Mark Newnham	4	3.9	4.2	4	4.2	3.7
5. Dufresne (8) J: Jean Van Overmeire (57kg) T: A J Cummings
6. I Am Lethal (11) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: J A O'shea	4.2	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.2	4
7. Lord Paramount (15) J: Unknown (57kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8. Regal Pom (3) J: Ms Louise Day (57kg) T: Annabel Neasham	21	21	21	21	21.5	21
9. Security Advisor (4) J: Jackson Morris (57kg) T: John Thompson
10. Semeco (12) J: Keagan Latham (57kg) T: David Payne
11. Starman (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: C J Waller
12. Tuhinga (1) J: Nash Rawiller (57kg) T: C J Waller	9	9	9	9	9.6	8.5
13. Retrieval (13) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56.5kg) T: James Cummings	7	7.5	6.5	7.5	6.3	7.5
14. War Eternal (7) J: Ms Rachel King (56.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker	9.5	9	9.5	9	8.4	9
15. Rhythmboat (6) J: Tim Clark (56kg) T: C J Waller	26	26	26	31	30	26

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Dragonstone went very close to making it a winning debut, narrowly going down over this trip. Will only take improvement from that and think he can benefit from a genuine tempo throughout. 

(3) Clemenceau has been impressing at the trials in the lead up to his debut and he looks a big chance of making a winning start to his career. Berry takes the ride after riding in the two most recent trials. 

(11) Starman looks the best value in the race, having won a lead up trial. The stable has taken their time with this horse and he looks to have upside.

Tip: (4) Dragonstone - $3.85 at SportsBetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Race 3 Tab (Bm64) (1200m) 2:00pm (AEDT)
1. No Laughing Matter (9) J: Regan Bayliss (61kg) T: K A Lees	6	6	6.5	6.5	6.5	6.5
2. Skedaddle (7) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (61kg) T: L J Bridge
3. Tastebud (6) J: Jean Van Overmeire (61kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	5.5	5	4.8	5	5	4.6
4. Zariya (12) J: Keagan Latham (61kg) T: John Thompson
5. Rosa Moyessi (11) J: Tyler Schiller (60kg) T: Mark Newnham	5.5	5.5	5	5	4.75	5
6. Shotgun Alli (3) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: R J Quinton	8.5	8	8	8.5	8.8	8
7. Linguee (8) J: Tommy Berry (59.5kg) T: Ms K Waugh	5	5	5	5.5	5.1	5
8. My Ruby (10) J: Nash Rawiller (59kg) T: C J Waller	10	9.5	9.5	10	9.7	9.5
9. Deepstar (2) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: G Portelli	16	16	13	17	16.6	15
10. Heart Of Siena (1) J: Jay Ford (58.5kg) T: Lee & Cherie Curtis
11. Syzygy Stars (4) J: Joshua Parr (58.5kg) T: Adam Duggan	7.5	7	7.5	7	7.6	7.5
12. Yesmeena (5) J: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg) T: K A Lees	21	21	19	21	18.6	19

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

(2) Skedaddle started an odds on favourite when first up in a similar race to this at Randwick-Kensington where she had excuses. Clearly has plenty of upside and should be fitter here 2nd up. Trials were very good leading into that race and her debut win showed she looks above average. Think she can bounce back here. 

(3) Tastebud is a much better horse 2nd up and comes into this after an encouraging fresh run behind smart winner Tamerlane. The claim for Van Overmeire is a positive and she can roll to the lead and give a good kick.

(7) Linguee is very lightly raced and has now strung together two wins from three starts and gets a crack at this grade now. Berry jumping on board is a big positive and she can run well.

Tip: (3) Tastebud $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tastebud

Race 4 Admire Mars At Arrowfield-Bm72 (1600m) 2:35pm (AEDT)
1. Spanish Point (11) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (60.5kg) T: K A Lees	7	7	7	7	6.8	6.5
2. Time Raid (1) J: Ms Louise Day (60kg) T: J C Deamer	5.5	5	5	6	6.1	5
3. Picaro (8) J: Nash Rawiller (59.5kg) T: G Portelli	6	5.5	5.5	6	5.6	5.5
4. Unamerican (10) J: Jean Van Overmeire (58.5kg) T: R & M Freedman	6	6	6	6	5.6	6
5. Dambulla (2) J: Unknown (58kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
6. Power Of Attorney (12) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (57kg) T: Peter Robl	15	16	16	16	14.8	16
7. Viren (4) J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg) T: David Payne
8. Champagne Vega (6) J: Brock Ryan (56kg) T: Joseph Ible
9. Peekays Legacy (7) J: Brenton Avdulla (57kg) T: P & P Snowden	3.9	3.9	3.8	4	3.75	3.8
10. Duchess Adele (5) J: Ms Rachel King (54.5kg) T: M J Dunn	5	4.8	4.8	5	4.9	4.8
11. Achi Baba (3) J: Tyler Schiller (54kg) T: Grant Marshall
12. Never Been Another (9) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Glen Thompson	81	91	91	101	99	101

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(4) Unamerican has flashed ability in his career and put in a good showing when running 4th last start over 1400m. That was in a pretty handy bm72 and he was first up after 6 months. Will only be fitter here today and provided we don’t get too much rain, he can run well. 

(3) Picaro will enjoy getting back to his home track and enjoys the sting out of the ground. Nash should give him a good steer from gate 8 and the stable has a knack for producing a winner in a race like this. 

(9) Peekays Legacy is airborne at the moment, winning his last two in good fashion. They were both on soft tracks and he looks more progressive than most of these.

Tip: (4) Unamerican - $ 6.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Unamerican

Race 5 China Horse Club (Bm72) (1400m) 3:10pm (AEDT)
1. Hit The Target (8) J: Brenton Avdulla (61.5kg) T: S C Jones
2. Bombasay (3) J: Ms Rachel King (60.5kg) T: D Lane	23	26	31	34	30	26
3. Juventus (13) J: Nash Rawiller (60kg) T: K A Lees
4. Off Shaw (10) J: Tim Clark (60kg) T: Bjorn Baker	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.1	7.5
5. Matowatakpe (14) J: Joshua Parr (59.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker	3.4	3.5	3.4	3.6	3.55	3.5
6. Sciconic (5) J: Jean Van Overmeire (59kg) T: R & M Freedman	34	34	41	34	36	34
7. St Covet's Spirit (12) J: Unknown (59kg) T: J C Coyle
8. Derbari (7) J: Tyler Schiller (58.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.7	3.45	3.5
9. This Is So (4) J: Andrew Adkins (58.5kg) T: A J Cummings	26	21	26	21	26.5	26
10. Daphne Jean (11) J: Tommy Berry (58kg) T: Ms K Waugh	6	6	6	6	6.1	5.5
11. Black Bolt (2) J: Regan Bayliss (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
12. Crosscheck (1) J: Keagan Latham (57.5kg) T: G W Moore
13. Briars Kingdom (9) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (57kg) T: P & P Snowden	7.5	7	8	7.5	6.8	7
14. Bob's Your Uncle (6) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (56kg) T: Craig Carmody	15	14	14	14	13.6	14

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

I made a case for (5) Matowatakpe last start in a stronger race than this and he ran well, running on late to finish 6th. Looks suited back to this grade, up in trip 3rd up now and ready to peak he looks a good bet. Handles all conditions and will just need some luck from the wide draw. 

(11) Black Bolt has built a handy record and has a win and a 2nd from two 1st up runs. The wet track may be the query for him but looks a big winning chance if he can handle it. 

Thought (4) Off Shaw could run a race at an EW price. Is an absolute swimmer and has been a winner 2nd up in the past. Gets up to his most favoured trip today where 3 of his 4 career wins have come.

Tip: (5) Matowatakpe - $4.65 at SportsBetting

Value: (4) Off Shaw - $12/$3.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Matowatakpe, 0.5 unit EW Off Shaw

Race 6 Xxxx (Bm72) (1100m) 3:45pm (AEDT)
1. Hibiscus Lady (2) J: Ms Louise Day (60.5kg) T: R J Quinton	7.5	7.5	8	8.5	7.9	7.5
2. Frozen In Time (6) J: Tim Clark (59.5kg) T: K A Lees	10	10	11	12	12.2	11
3. Zoumist (7) J: Jay Ford (59.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou
4. Fortune Seeker (14) J: Ms Kathy O'hara (59kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott	7.5	7.5	8	8	7.4	7.5
5. Leave Me Some (5) J: Tyler Schiller (59kg) T: Grant Marshall
6. Miss Dior (12) J: Regan Bayliss (59kg) T: P & P Snowden
7. Seleque (9) J: Tommy Berry (59kg) T: C J Waller	4	4.2	4.2	4.4	3.75	4
8. Miss Jay Fox (15) J: Heavelon Van Der Hoven (58.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker
9. Raison D'etre (8) J: Ms Rachel King (58.5kg) T: James Cummings	15	15	15	15	14.2	16
10. Snitzari (1) J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg) T: K A Lees	17	18	19	18	19.2	19
11. Escape Artist (11) J: Joshua Parr (58kg) T: Mark Newnham	8	8.5	7.5	8.5	7.3	8.5
12. Arousal (3) J: James Innes Jnr (57.5kg) T: G Ryan & S Alexiou	8	7.5	7.5	8	8.6	7.5
13. Egyptian Missile (4) J: Brandon Lerena (57.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker	20	21	21	21	20.5	21
14. Embeller (13) J: Nash Rawiller (56.5kg) T: John Thompson
15. Van Giz (10) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (61kg) T: Bjorn Baker	5.5	5	5.5	5	5.1	5

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with (1) Hibiscus Lady again today who looks bursting to win one this prep. Continues to improve with each run and now looks ready to peak 3rd up from a spell. The claim for Louise Day is a positive in this high-weighted race and confident she can run well. 

(6) Miss Dior strung together three straight wins last prep and showed plenty of talent in the process. She beat some handy horses in those races and looks good enough to measure up to these. 

(4) Fortune Seeker has three wins from four career starts and was last seen finishing 4th behind the likes of Ellsberg, Enchanted Heart and Nicci’s Fling. Looks the best value chance.

Tip: (1) Hibiscus Lady - $7.60 at SportsBetting

Also Backing: (4) Fortune Seeker - $10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Hibiscus Lady, 0.5 unit WIN Fortune Seeker

Race 7 Sky Racing (Bm72) (1200m) 4:20pm (AEDT)
1. Trajection (12) J: Tyler Schiller (61.5kg) T: Ms K Waugh	16	15	16	18	17.8	16
2. Americana Magic (3) J: Andrew Adkins (61kg) T: Grant Allard
3. Bombasay (13) J: Unknown (60.5kg) T: D Lane
4. Brazen Gem (8) J: Kerrin Mcevoy (60.5kg) T: Bjorn Baker	6.5	6.5	6.5	7	6.2	6
5. Rustic Steel (10) J: Joshua Parr (60kg) T: K A Lees
6. Ghostly (6) J: Ms Rachel King (59kg) T: M J Dunn
7. Van Giz (7) J: Brandon Lerena (59kg) T: Bjorn Baker
8. Fastconi (11) J: Unknown (58.5kg) T: C J Waller
9. Get The Idea (14) J: Keagan Latham (58.5kg) T: G D Hickman	12	12	13	13	10.4	13
10. Black Bolt (15) J: Regan Bayliss (57.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
11. Ibaraki (16) J: Brenton Avdulla (57.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
12. Silent Agenda (4) J: Tim Clark (56.5kg) T: Joseph Pride	12	12	11	13	11.6	12
13. Grenado (9) J: Jay Ford (55.5kg) T: C J Waller	34	34	41	41	35	34
14. Phoenix Global (5) J: Jean Van Overmeire (55.5kg) T: Brad Widdup	9.5	10	8	10	9.2	10
15. Undoubted (2) J: Ms Louise Day (55.5kg) T: J C Coyle	17	18	19	19	19.2	19
16. Promise Of Success (1) J: Tommy Berry (55kg) T: J A O'shea	1.65	1.65	1.6	1.65	1.72	1.6

Odds Last Updated: June 30, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

(16) Promise Of Success was absolutely smashed in betting on his Australian debut before bolting in by 2L over this trip. Will have no issues with the conditions today and should only be fitter on the back of that first up run. Any natural improvement will see him hard to beat today.

(11) Ibaraki made a winning start to his career and started an odds on favourite there. He accounted for his opposition easily while still racing very greenly and should take benefit out of that run. Will likely roll forward from the wide draw and looks the main danger to the favourite. 

(4) Brazen Gem looks the most likely of the rest of the field after tackling a much stronger Saturday race when fresh. Has been a winner 2nd up in the past and races well at this track.

Tip: (16) Promise Of Success - $2.20 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 unit WIN Promise Of Success