Victoria Derby 2021 Runner by Runner Preview

It’s Derby Day at Flemington with the VRC Derby one of four Group 1’s on an outstanding card.

We’ve got a full field for the 3yo staying feature, Australia’s oldest race.

Trent Crebbin has analysed the chances of every runner in the field and has made a case for a few at odds.

Speed Map

Full field and obviously a very messy speed map. I think Commander Harry will go forward from out wide with Character and Gundec holding a forward position. Tutukaka can roll forward if they wish but riding him back worked so well in the Geelong Classic. Forgot You can settle midfield with Hitotsu potentially landing forward. Gunstock and Alegron probably have to go back.

Runners

1. Forgot You

Hasn’t done much wrong from a Derby perspective. His Stutt Stakes win was very strong, his Guineas run was excellent from a long way back, coming home in faster late splits than Anamoe. He then went back to Moonee Valley last week in the Vase and despite still hitting his customary flat spot he was too good late. He was potentially expected to win a bit more comfortably, but I just love how he attacks the line every start and nearly always runs the best last 200m of his races. I think he’s looking for 2500m and I can’t wait to see him at Flemington which will give him time to balance up and get through his gears, the only small query is he’s had a long prep and a few tough runs. If he backs up, he’s the one to beat for me.

He's a nice colt!

Forgot You produces a gutsy win in the Vase. 💪💪💪 pic.twitter.com/XpwK5TsUpI

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 23, 2021

2. Tutukaka

He’s always looked like a one paced stayer since that win in Queensland and looked like it again this prep, grinding away on speed in the Super Impose but they went back in the Geelong Classic and powered to the line. It was a strong win and I’ve got no queries with him at 2500m, although I don’t think that’s the best form line coming in. If they went forward and rolled along again he’d be a chance, but I’m not sure they will given how well he chased last start.

3. Alegron

Brings some different form through the Spring Champion and has to be strongly respected off that 3rd to Profondo, working to the line well when beaten 2.8L. That horse would’ve been favourite if he came here I have no doubt, and he looks suited getting to 2500m. Prebble takes the ride, if he could land on the back of Forgot You from barrier 9 and he looks the danger at odds. 

4. Gunstock

He’s had probably the best prep leading into this that you could want. He had the 1600m maiden win, got too far back in the Super Impose but was the flashing light run there before getting the blinkers on in the Caulfield Classic and proving far too good. It’s the ideal platform to get to 2500m which looks to suit and he’s a huge winning chance, I just wonder where he gets to on the map. I think he has to get a fair way back from the gate but if he can a cart into it around the turn if they bunch up he’ll be charging home.

Gunstock goes bang! pic.twitter.com/1mIb0gEpsV

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 16, 2021

5. Akihiro

Stuck on well in the Vase last week but Forgot You clearly had his measure. The run prior behind Hilal and Coastwatch was solid, although he’s not one I’m convinced is going to get the 2500m given his last 200m was the 6th fastest of the race. He could potentially settle closer to the speed from barrier 2 but I don’t think he can win.

6. Character

I was with him in the Geelong Classic and he ran well, easily the best of the on pacers. Even still, it’s hard to see him turning the tables on Tutukaka who gave him a big head start and was soft on the line. The positive is he has speed and can roll forward, but he was also beaten fair and square by Gunstock at Flemington and whilst he can run well I don’t think he’ll be winning.

7. Jungle Magnate

He was solid on speed in a slowly run Hill Smith in Adelaide which was a query, but his 3rd in the Vase was very good, coming from strongly behind Forgot You to run 3rd. That was an excellent effort and being by a former Derby winner in Tarzino he looks ideally suited getting to 2500m. Currie replaces Bowman and there’s a chance he can be much closer from barrier 5. Live hope.

8. Commander Harry

If Forgot You and Jungle Magnate are hopes then this horse must be also given he split the pair of them. I think a big part of that was down to an outstanding losing ride from Linda Meech who left them flat footed early and nearly pinched it. He started $101 there and had everything in his favour but if you forgive the Kyneton failure when well respected in the market, he’s probably rightly a $26 chance.

9. Hitotsu

Very interesting placement from the Maher/Eustace camp to have him 3rd up in a Derby at 2500m coming off a 1600m lead up. I think they wanted to have another run but weren’t sure if he’d handle it after the Guineas, in which he was very good. He beat Forgot You home sitting closer to a good speed and ran very well, it’s just whether he has the platform to run the trip. I’m not doubting the stable who can do this, but we saw last year with Young Werther who didn’t have the mental or physical grounding for 2500m. No doubt he’s talented, but he has to be a big query.

WHAT A COLT!

👏 ANAMOE WINS THE 2021 CAULFIELD GUINEAS 👏@bluebetau pic.twitter.com/q2gqmQuMMT

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 9, 2021

10. Cerberus

Has some respectable form lines namely winning the Hill Smith last start. That was 3rd up at 1800m and I would’ve potentially liked to see another run before the 2500m. The barrier makes it tricky- drawn the widest he probably has to give a few more fancied runners a start and will find it tough from there.

11. Gundec

The form around the Derby Trial on the Wednesday has turned out to be legless and I can’t have anything out of it. He sat on speed there in a race of no change and was completely found out in the Caulfield Classic, beaten 7.5L by Gunstock. The positives are he gets a beautiful map and Willo sticks, but off last start I think he’s got plenty to find.

12. Clyde

Appreciated the drop in grade to a bm58 at Scone last start and recorded a nice win but was comprehensively beaten in the Spring Champion by Alegron. In his favour he will definitely stay the trip and could settle in a good spot from the gate but I think he deserves to be long odds.

13. El Rocko

Only maiden in the field but his last start in the Vase wasn’t terrible. He made his run through the inferior ground and was only beaten 3.1L by Forgot You. That was his first start over 2000m+ and off that run alone he probably doesn’t deserve to be $126. The draw makes it tough but I’d be suggesting to have a couple of dollars each way on the betfair starting price, probably at 300-1.

14. Raging Bull

He was sound in the Spring Champion but had his cance chasing Alegron and that horse comfortably beat him home. The map isn’t ideal for him drawn wide and I’m happy to be against.

15. Cheerful Moment

He started $21 in the Vase and was well beaten there. He’s better than that coming off a couple of solid runs over shorter trips but would need to improve a stack here.

16. Teewaters

The Ballarat win was dominant and he hit the line well in the Caulfield Classic behind Gunstock, running the 2nd best last 200m of that race behind the winner. Doubt 2500m will be any issue coming off three 2000m races so he’s close to the fittest horse in the race and if this is a genuine test he’ll be in the finish.

Selections

Happy to be with Forgot You on top. I think he’s the best horse in the race, is looking for 2500m and Flemington will be ideal given he takes some time to wind up. He attacks the line every start and if he’s not over the top he’ll go very close. Alegron brings the Sydney form and should be respected. Jungle Magnate was very good in the Vase and can settle closer, and if you want a proper roughie El Rocko can run a race.

(1) Forgot You $4.60 at TopSport

(3) Alegron $10.00 at BlueBet

(7) Jungle Magnate $19.00 at Ladbrokes

(13) El Rocko $126/26 at Bet365

Betting Strategy

 1.25 units Forgot You, 0.5 units WIN Alegron, 0.25 units WIN Jungle Magnate, 0.1 units E/W El Rocko (Betfair Starting Price)