Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, October 30th

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 12:24pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with (3) Prix De Turn who clearly comes out of the better form reference in the Caulfield Guineas. At start number 2 he ran on well for 7th, beaten 5.7L and his late splits were only bettered by Anamoe, Artorius, Forgot You and Captivant. Even the debut 2nd to Extreme Flight reads well for this and if he can settle a bit closer from 3 I think he’ll be very hard to beat and should continue to firm.

(11) Fangirl was a solid winner last start in Sydney courtesy of an elite Jmac ride who sticks here, but she has to take on the boys here which I think have the wood over the girls, and she probably has to get back from the wide gate.

(1) Brigantine has been up a while but was solid behind Hilal and Coastwatch last start which reads fairly well. Query on him at 1600m.

Tip: (3) Prix De Turn- $3.70 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Prix De Turn

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 1:04pm (AEDT)

Tough race for the last ticket into the Melbourne Cup. If (4) Great House is here he’ll take some beating coming off a very good run in the Caulfield Cup. He’s currently 24th in the order so if he doesn’t run/win, the winner of this would jump him. Jmac goes on, he’s obviously a key chance.

(7) Mankayan is a bit of a number but just missed the bob last start at Caulfield. I thought he had every chance there but should appreciate 2500m at Flemington although barrier 1 could be sticky if they ride him neutrally.

(9) King’s Charisma the stablemate was in that race and I thought he ran well after getting shuffled back at a key stage. His last 200m was quicker than Mankayan’s and he potentially has more improvement to come given he’s only 3rd up now.

(3) Le Don De Vie was okay in the Geelong Cup and can run well again.

Tip: (9) King’s Charisma- $8.00/2.25 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W King's Charisma

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 1:40pm (AEDT)

Cracking edition of the Wakeful. I thought (4) Barb Raider was probably the run of the race in the Thousand Guineas sitting just behind a good speed when the quinella came from last and wide. She looked gone at the 200m but went through the line well for 3rd. Don’t love the trainer’s comments about anything after the guineas being a bonus because I think she’s a huge Oaks chance and gets a lovely map here with Willo riding again. She owned El Patroness when they met at Sandown albeit over 1600m and I think she’s a decent bet.

(3) El Patroness is a quality filly coming out of the boy’s leadups. She ran 2nd to Derby favourite Gunstock last start and has a good platform leading into this. No real knock on her whatsoever.

(10) Kapalua Sunset had absolutely no mathematical chance of winning last start in a very messy race. Prebble was caught behind the leaders and somehow ended up last and going backwards as early runs came. I would’ve loved to see more late but if you trust her dominant $2.20 SP she’s overs here, and I like her drawn wide.

(8) Willowy is one to watch coming off a 4.8L maiden win at Newcastle with completely different form.

I think you can back Barb Raider and Kapalua Sunset for the same return, and break even off El Patroness. Happy enough to be against Yearning and Daisies both who had the right runs in their respective lead ups.

Tip: (4) Barb Raider- $5.50 at Bet365

Also Backing: (10) Kapalua Sunset- $11.00 at Bet365

Saver: (3) El Patroness- $4.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Barb Raider, 0.5 units WIN Kapalua Sunset, 0.5 units WIN El Patroness

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 2:24pm (AEDT)

We’ve taken a great price about (7) Oxley Road all-in the premium Discord group and I still think he’s the one to beat. I loved his win over Malkovich last start at Caulfield in a good race, and prior to that he ran 3rd to Masked Crusader. My small query is 1200m but he should be at peak fitness and he did win his only go at the trip. Draws out wide to do his own thing and try to zip away at the 500m.

(4) Brooklyn Hustle was an absolute moral beaten last start when nowhere to go. The market has absolutely smashed her both starts this prep so I’ll be interested to see what the market does. Jmac going on is a huge positive.

I was with (2) Kemalpasa last start and I thought he travelled like the winner but couldn’t finish it off. He’s a very consistent straight six horse and will be right there again.

(9) Pandemic next best down in the weights after chasing Lombardo last start.

Tip: (7) Oxley Road- $3.20 at TAB

Saver: (4) Brooklyn Hustle- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Oxley Road, 0.5 units WIN Brooklyn Hustle

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 3:04pm (AEDT)

Incredibly good edition of the Empire Rose. (2) Mystic Journey is absolutely set to peak here 3rd up at the mile. She got a mile back from a wide gate but charged home to be beaten less than a length last start, running the day’s fastest late splits. She was a moral beaten in this race last year when drawn inside which is my query here. If she’d drawn midfield I’d be keener, but I do think she’ll settle closer and if she can get room she’ll be hard to beat.

(15) Steinem looks one of the best roughies in the race. She was only 2nd up at 1400m on a soft 7 which probably wasn’t ideal and gave Colette the tow into the race, hitting the front but no match for that horse late. 3rd up getting to 1600m at Flemington on a dry track looks ideal, and she was an enormous run 3rd up last prep at $1.60 in Adelaide.

(3) Tofane is flying and ticked the 1600m box last start in the Toorak which I was still a query on after a slow tempo Makybe Diva. She’s just a very good mare and will take plenty of beating, it’s just a very open race.

Speaking of good mares, (5) Still A Star has only missed a place once, which was in an All Star Mile. She had the ideal run last start but she maps to get it again and can definitely win.

Tip: (2) Mystic Journey- $6.00 at Bet365

Value: (15) Steinem- $27.00/7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mystic Journey, 0.25 units E/W Steinem

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of the VRC Derby, please follow the link:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/victoria-derby-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 4:34pm (AEDT)

Probably the race of the day down the straight for the 3yo’s. It was hard not to be impressed by (9) Extreme Warrior in the Blue Sapphire. He absolutely smashed Profiteer who absolutely smashed the rest. His maiden win was dominant in fast time and he’s clearly come back a very good 3yo. I think he’s still got upside to come, draws a fairly good gate and will take a power of beating.

(5) Home Affairs is the other I want to be with. He smashed Paulele in fast time first up and even though he had the pattern in favour, he was dominant before starting $12 in the Everest when only 2nd up and only going down 5L to Nature Strip. Now he’s $11 with Jmac going back on which looks a bet.

(8) Ranch Hand can definitely improve out of the Danehill, which I do think is the inferior lead up. He was the fastest middle splits of the race when in an awkward spot. The first up win over Ingratiating was very good when held up and he draws the outside here which should be ideal.

(14) Marine One had nothing go right last week at The Valley but I thought the win had merit. 1200m is a query but he’s another that’s come back well and could run a race.

Tip: (9) Extreme Warrior- $4.40 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (5) Home Affairs- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (8) Ranch Hand- $35.00 at Sportsbet & (14) Marine One- $41.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Extreme Warrior, 0.5 units WIN Home Affairs, 0.25 units WIN Ranch Hand, 0.25 units WIN Marine One

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 5:14pm (AEDT)

Another incredibly open race the Cantala. They should go very fast here and I think (3) Superstorm can finish over the top of them. He was very good in the Toorak from a long way back, clearly running every sectional the fastest. Keen to see him back at Flemington- his only two runs here were a slashing 2nd in an Australian Guineas to Alligator Blood and a 2L defeat to Verry Elleegant in the Turnbull when having no platform to run 2000m. Gets in fairly well with 56kg and can run a big race.

(14) Mr Brightside is a ripper and just keeps raising the bar. The last start win was dominant in the Seymour Cup but he did get every favour there. The map looks ideal again and with 52kg he’s the progressive horse.

(11) Chaillot has been kept fresh which is ideal for her. She’s got a big turn of foot but it’ll be interesting to see if she can do it off a very fast tempo at 1600m.

(2) Cascadian was unlucky (as usual) in the Epsom. Has to carry 57.5kg here and Superstorm did comfortably beat him home when they met in last year’s Toorak with just 1kg between them. Will be charging late as usual.

Tip: (3) Superstorm- $11.00/3.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Superstorm

Odds Last Updated: October 30, 2021, 5:54pm (AEDT)

Very open race. I liked the win of (5) Minhaaj first up in Sydney for the new stable off the back of some good trials. She’s proven down the straight, Jmac sticks with her and she was only beaten just over 1L by September Run in the Cap D’Antibes and Poseidon Stakes when that filly was in Coolmore form and has regressed since.

(7) Written Beauty is a very interesting runner first up for Waller. Whether he’s had the time to start to fix her issues I don’t know, but she was a huge run first up last prep in Sydney when missing the start and she’s very good at her best.

(6) Marboosha can win. She didn’t run out 1400m last start but has been freshened for this and did run very well first up behind Entriviere. Her win over this T/D last prep beating Bella Nipotina and Oxley Road with a huge turn of foot was very good, and she draws to get to the outside.

(1) September Run is the proven straight track horse but I have queries on how she’s going. She was barely a pass mark in the Moir and poor last start at Caulfield. Clearly you could forgive those back to Flemington but she has to give them all weight and I don’t think she’s at her best compared to a few that she was only beating by a length when she was flying.

Tip: (5) Minhaaj- $5.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Written Beauty- $18.00 at TopSport

Value: (6) Marboosha- $15.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Minhaaj, 0.5 units WIN Written Beauty, 0.5 units WIN Marboosha