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VRC Oaks 2021 Runner-by-Runner Preview & Tips

The Group 1 VRC Oaks headlines the 3rd day of the Flemington carnival and Trent Crebbin has assessed the chances of every three-year-old filly in the race.

2021-VRC-Oaks-Tips

The third day of the Flemington carnival is Ladies Day, headlined by the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks for the three-year-old fillies.

Trent Crebbin has provided a runner-by-runner preview of the $1million feature on Thursday, so find his Kennedy Oaks tips below!

Speed Map 

Expecting the $151 roughie Fabiola to take up the lead from Daisies and Gonnadancealot. Douceur will roll forward from out wide and Willowy just behind the leaders. Glint Of Hope likely 3 back the fence with the others finding their spots worse than midfield. Don’t think it’ll be a fast tempo unless Fabiola really tries to outstay them.

Runners

1. Elusive Express 

Thousand Guineas runner-up stepping straight to the 2500m. She’s always profiled as an Oaks filly and is by a Melbourne Cup placegetter in Jakkalberry, but the platform has to be some query. If this is a slowly run race she’ll be suited with the best turn of foot, but if something decides to make it a decent test I do have a small query on her at the trip given her lack of a 2000m lead up.

2. Willowy

Looks the one to beat and has avoided most of the intertwine-able form, coming through a dominant Newcastle 1600m maiden before winning the Wakeful on Saturday. That looks an ideal run to back up 4 days later, not too fast early and she sprinted home well. She looks suited getting to 2500m off that run given she took a while to pick up but her last 100m was clearly the best part of her race. With clear air from barrier 2 she’ll be hard to beat.

3. Daisies

She won the Ethereal in fairly dominant fashion in a strange race. They went so slow early, Lane whipped around them and took up the running, never looking like losing from there in a messy race behind. I thought she had her chance in the Wakeful behind Willowy but was very strong through the line and does meet her 2kg better. She likely gets a good run on the map if Jmac can navigate to the 1-1.

4. Biscayne Bay

Solid in the Ethereal albeit beaten 3L by Daisies. She didn’t really have a platform heading into the 2000m and should be suited now with that run under her belt. Hard to doubt the Maher/Eustace stable over this trip and she’s their only runner in the race.

5. Gonnadancealot

Win during the Winter over 1800m was good but she beat a very weak field and her two this prep have been poor, beaten 15L and 11L. Can’t see her featuring.

6. Douceur

She was solid in the Wakeful but had absolutely every chance racing in the 1-1 and Willowy went straight past her with Daisies also having to take a gap and beat her home comfortably. Maybe she’s looking for 2500m now but I can’t really have her winning.

7. Glint Of Hope

Has to be a big chance – I thought her run in the Ethereal was excellent when getting back and coming into the 3 wide line, finishing off well for 2nd in the fastest splits of the race. I thought her run was equally as good, if not better than Daisies and she’s skipped the Wakeful which could turn out to be the right move if a few of those fillies are flat. Barrier 1 might be a bit tricky but getting Nash doesn’t hurt and she’s bred to stay. I think she’s the value runner in the race.

8. Tiz My Bay

No queries on her running the trip, she’s been grinding home at the end of her runs, the last two in the Ethereal and Wakeful. Off those runs where she finished midfield it’s hard to see her winning, but 2500m looks right up her alley and I’d definitely be having her in exotics.

9. Blackcomb

After all the O’Brien fillies promised leading up to the Oaks, he’s left with just the one. She was a moral beaten in Adelaide two back before just battling in the Moonee Valley Vase against the boys last start. She was back to the inside and had blinkers on which may not have suited, and she wasn’t terrible despite the margin in a fast run race. Prior to that in the Oaks trial she was good behind Barb Raider beating home Tiz My Bay and Morrissette. Can’t discount completely.

10. Fabiola

Probably outclassed coming off a Benalla maiden win, but she will definitely run the 2500m by Polanski, a VRC Derby winner. Froggy will likely take her straight to the front and I’d love to see him try and Lasqueti Spirit this race and lead by a big space.

11. Morrissette

Another that’s been hitting the line well in her lead up runs, running the 2nd fastest last 400m of the Ethereal. It was a good run to produce her best now to 2500m and despite being beaten 3.5L there she’s not completely hopeless.

Selections

Willowy is the one to beat for mine. She beat them fair and square in the Wakeful and it was an ideal run to sprint home for the quick backup. Glint Of Hope is still a maiden but was very good in the Ethereal and perhaps skipping the Wakeful will turn out to be a good move. Blackcomb beat a few of these in the Oaks trial and if you forgive the Vase run she can improve. Tiz My Bay will stay all day.

(2) Willowy – $4.50 at Bet365

(7) Glint Of Hope – $9.00 at Sportsbet

(9) Blackcomb – $23.00 at Sportsbet

 Betting Strategy

1 unit WIN Willowy, 0.75 units WIN Glint Of Hope, 0.25 units WIN Blackcomb

SportChamps

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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