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Belmont Racing Tips: Thursday, November 4th

Tim Geers previews THursday’s eight-race card as racing returns to Belmont in WA.

belmont racing tips

The Belmont winter racing season has concluded but racing returns to the venue ahead of WA’s new policy of rotating the two metropolitan tracks more for midweek racing year-round.

The track played extremely favourably to frontrunners in the final couple of months of the Belmont season, and with the rail out 9m for the first meeting back, we can probably expect much of the same today.

Tim Geers has assessed every race on today’s card below, with his best bet coming up in the opening race.

Best Bet: Race 1 – (3) Thomas Magnum

Best Value: Race 2 – (5) Cobbanco

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201743

Race 1

Love & Thoughts For Cleo Mdn (1000m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Love & Thoughts For Cleo Mdn (1000m)
4:20pm (AEDT)

1. Bayzel (7) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: Brian Kersley
1817181819.218
2. Spiced Delight (11) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Martin Allan
989.5109.29.5
3. Thomas Magnum (2) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: C & M Gangemi
1.751.751.71.81.681.7
4. Chad's Me Dad (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Ms P Kenney
141313131414
5. Jalinda Bay (4) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: B V Watkins
232121212323
6. Yes Man (10) J: Chris Graham (56kg) T: M Knox
514151515151
7. Hola Marea (9) J: Jordan Turner (56kg) T: S & J Casey
8. Dance Session (1) J: Jason Brown (54kg) T: J P Taylor
6.56666.27
9. Winning Pia (5) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: S & J Casey
262121212831
10. Beauty In Me (8) J: William Pike (54kg) T: J F Miller
101091010.29
11. Yakyak (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (54kg) T: N D Parnham
3126313129.534

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 4:24pm (AEDT)

I was only interested in two horses here and one of them has been scratched this morning, which leaves me very confident with (3) Thomas Magnum. This horse ran well without much luck on debut as a two-year-old before being put away for a spell. He returns as a three-year-old today coming off a very, very stylish trial. Brad Parnham barely flinched a muscle on him as he went to the line under a complete stranglehold. Drawn well and looks awfully hard to beat. 

Tip: (3) Thomas MAgnum $1.85 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Thomas Magnum

201743

Race 2

Tabtouch - Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Tabtouch - Better Your Bet Mdn (1400m)
4:59pm (AEDT)

1. Disengo (12) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: A G Durrant
1111111110.811
2. Total Lockdown (11) J: William Pike (57kg) T: Simon Miller
131212131012
3. He'sgotwings (8) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: Martin Allan
2.92.92.833.052.8
4. Catalpa (1) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: D L Morton
8.58.58.58.588.5
5. Cobbanco (7) J: Jason Whiting (57kg) T: B G Lucas
7777.57.67
6. Jackemjames (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: B P Fitzgerald
7. Liber Archie (3) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: Ms M Tyson
818181917981
8. Bell Lap (6) J: Ms Nicole Hopwood (57kg) T: S J Miller
353434413234
9. Flower In The Wind (4) J: Steven Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
7.57.57.57.57.87.5
10. Nutwood (2) J: Ms Lisa Staples (55kg) T: P H Jordan
353434514534
11. Snip Of Glory (10) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: Simon Miller
54.84.84.84.44.8
12. Kempy Gold (13) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55kg) T: Michael Grantham
9110110110199101
13. My Norina (5) J: Taj Dyson (55kg) T: F R Kersley
353434413334

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 4:59pm (AEDT)

Good little race this.

(5) Cobbanco was a big run on debut coming from back in the field over 1100m, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting. That was after sitting three-wide without cover for the entire race. The step up to 1400m looks to really suit him based on that and provided they are able to run on, he’ll run a big race at each way odds.

(3) He’sgotwings is in a similar boat. He was also a good run on debut after overracing throughout, before finally getting his act together and finishing off well to run 2nd. He’s another that will appreciate the step up to 1400m but that means a slower tempo and he needs to settle better than he did on debut.

(11) Snip Of Glory has been good coming from the back of the field in both career starts. Likely to be back there again from the wide gate.

(9) Flower In The Wind was well supported first up but disappointing. Respect the market from that run though.

Tip: (5) Cobbanco $7.10/$2.40 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Cobbanco

201743

Race 3

Seacorp Mdn (1400m)
5:42pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Seacorp Mdn (1400m)
5:42pm (AEDT)

1. Keep It Hush (12) J: Taj Dyson (58kg) T: Daniel O'connor
272631313031
2. Melwood Coast (3) J: Mitchell Pateman (58kg) T: B S Seinor
2626212126.523
3. North Lane (5) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: F R Kersley
516151615961
4. Market Stryke (13) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: Simon Miller
2.72.72.62.82.62.6
5. Marty's Party (14) J: Ms Emma Stent (58kg) T: A D Mathews
91101101101101101
6. Our Escape (4) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: Misty Bazeley
81818110110181
7. Just Dennis (10) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: K J Reeves
81818110110181
8. Westriver Miracle (11) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (58kg) T: Ms A King
1110101011.210
9. Petite La Femme (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: C G Willis
202121212021
10. Pray Again (6) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
2.93332.853
11. Luke's Pierro (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: D R Harrison
343434413434
12. False Evidence (1) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: Jade Tangaroa
2626262626.526
13. Elusive Dream (8) J: William Pike (56kg) T: G & A Williams
9.59.59.5109.99.5
14. King Kashoo (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
1615141614.214

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 5:44pm (AEDT)

Looks a race between (4) Market Stryke and (10) Pray Again.

Market Stryke will jump and lead from barrier 13. He sat outside the leader on debut at Northam and was only run down late to be narrowly beaten by Success Play, which then came out and won again at its next start.

Pray Again was well backed first up and ran home strongly to be beaten just over half-a-length. The race was run to suit those on speed. Belle’s Fantasy won that race and then came out and ran 2nd to Airlie Queen at her next start, so the form isn’t horrible.

(8) Westriver Miracle was a terrific trial when last seen but then never went to the races and has since been transferred to another stable. Reeks of something going wrong since that trial so will be happy to avoid today.

Backing Market Stryke who ran a much faster time than Pray Again on the same day and should take catching from the front.

Tip: (4) Market Stryke $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Market Stryke

201743

Race 4

Free Entry To Belmont Park Mdn (1650m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Free Entry To Belmont Park Mdn (1650m)
6:15pm (AEDT)

1. Rocaroyale (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: Anthony Oram
342651413334
2. Hear Me (9) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Luke Fernie
1211121411.212
3. Pick And Pay (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (58kg) T: Meryl Hayley
1818191919.218
4. Meritia (10) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (58kg) T: D R Harrison
211931212121
5. Kolchino (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (58kg) T: Darren Taylor
1.81.91.91.851.861.85
6. Arnray (13) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: Kirryn Scallan
1616161818.216
7. Duchees Demerit (12) J: Ms Kate Witten (58kg) T: P E Roberts
463441715151
8. Jolly Odd (7) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56kg) T: J P Johnston
101126101101141151
9. Almaher Man (4) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: F R Kersley
4.64.64.64.64.24.6
10. Mia Nobile (6) J: Troy Turner (56kg) T: G N Davies
171818191819
11. Aztec Gold (2) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: B A Miller
1415151614.815
12. Lady Of Babylon (14) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: V A Brockman
13. Miss Rona (11) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: Ray Miller
91126101101121126
14. Arrow Song (16) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: F R Kersley
15. King Lucifer (1) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: Ms K Kersley
101126101101111126
16. Our Escape (15) J: Unknown (58kg) T: Misty Bazeley

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 6:19pm (AEDT)

The key to this race is (5) Kolchino jumping. He was a complete slug out of the gates in all his trials and on debut at Geraldton, but ran the fastest final 400m in defeat. Shaun McGruddy then went on last start and got him out of the gates to lead, and he was only run down very late by a horse with some talent in Mahaleo. Gets up to 1650m today and draws ideally in barrier 3. McGruddy is suspended so Shaun O’Donnell picks up the ride and if he can get him out, he’ll take plenty of beating, especially on a track that I expect to favour those on speed.

(9) Almaher Man looks the danger from the good draw after running 3rd to Advanced first up.

The early price for Kolchino is gone – he opened $4.00 – and now at $2.45 I have to sit out as there’s the risk he doesn’t jump well.

Tip: (5) Kolchino $2.45 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

201743

Race 5

Schweppes Hcp (C1) (2200m)
6:50pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Schweppes Hcp (C1) (2200m)
6:50pm (AEDT)

1. Ace Place (9) J: Troy Turner (60kg) T: Ms P Wagg
1212111111.812
2. Sunday Gin (7) J: Keshaw Dhurun (60kg) T: Raymond Vincent
313141414134
3. Rogues Point (8) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: M W Bairstow
101012118.89.5
4. Antique Jewel (1) J: William Pike (58kg) T: A G Durrant
2.152.152.22.252.22.15
5. Circle The Sun (5) J: Jett Stanley (58kg) T: A G Durrant
4.44.44.24.24.354.4
6. Yulong Wall (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: Joshua Krispyn
202126211823
7. Nick Of Time (3) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: G J Evans
1919201819.219
8. Dance Of The South (4) J: Ms Kate Witten (57kg) T: Greg Cave
313131313431
9. Dancing Jack (10) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: Anthony Oram
98.598.59.18.5
10. Bryce Road (2) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56.5kg) T: K J Reeves
718181919181
11. Time Stands Still (11) J: Steven Parnham (55.5kg) T: Deborah Hagan
313126263531

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 6:54pm (AEDT)

If there is ever a no-bet race, this is it.

(4) Antique Jewel finds her race but she’s also gone down as favourite in her past two starts. Gets barrier 1 today and gets back onto firm ground, but she’s no good thing.

(5) Circle The Sun comes out of the same race as Antique Jewel and meets it 3kg better at the weights.

(2) Sunday Gin broke its maiden when he was lame two starts ago and was fair resuming from seven weeks off over the mile last start. Up in distance suits today.

(3) Rogues Point will run his usual honest race but always finds a couple better.

(8) Dance Of The South isn’t completely hopeless at big odds if she can jump better and settle handy. There’s no speed in the race.

 

Tip: (4) Antique Jewel $2.80 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

201743

Race 6

Western Racepix Hcp (C1) (1200m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Western Racepix Hcp (C1) (1200m)
7:25pm (AEDT)

1. Skater Boy (5) J: Ms Holly Watson (60kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
2321262621.526
2. War Warrior (4) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: D L Morton
1.851.81.81.951.861.75
3. Don't Argue Buster (1) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59kg) T: D R Harrison
1111111110.412
4. Dais (11) J: Unknown (58kg) T: D & B Pearce
5. Ellie'n'pink (7) J: Chris Graham (58kg) T: Brian Rogers
1414101514.213
6. Ginger Mack (3) J: Troy Turner (58kg) T: Greg Cave
1818171716.819
7. My Hidden Journey (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: John Doyle
1819191817.221
8. Bourbon Beau (6) J: Mitchell Pateman (57.5kg) T: Ms A King
4.244.24.64.14
9. Domineer (8) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
1818181717.821
10. Ninetyone Dwyer (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Michael Hackett
212621212126
11. Vicinity (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (55kg) T: C G Willis
101126101101101151

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 7:29pm (AEDT)

(2) War Warrior looks to have found a very nice race to resume in today. He was last seen running against the likes of Bragwell and Tri For Us, which reads well for a midweek Class 1. Dan Morton has trained 10 winners from his past 28 starters and four from his last 10. The stable is absolutely flying.

(8) Bourbon Beau showed a little bit of talent earlier in its career and now has a stable switch from Simon Miller to Anne King. Watch the market.

(1) Skater Boy will roll forward and could give some cheek.

Tip: (2) War Warrior $2.20 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN War Warrior

201743

Race 7

Morley Growers Market Hcp (C5) (1200m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Morley Growers Market Hcp (C5) (1200m)
8:00pm (AEDT)

1. Captain Kink (6) J: Taj Dyson (63.5kg) T: Brett Pope
191919212019
2. Vane Tempest (1) J: Ms Holly Watson (62kg) T: Ms P Kenney
3.63.63.63.63.653.7
3. Ay Tee Emm (13) J: Troy Turner (60kg) T: Greg Cave
344134413734
4. Double Jeopardy (11) J: Jett Stanley (60kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
5. Island Missile (7) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: C & M Gangemi
8888.57.78
6. Beat The Bro (4) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
7.57.57.57.57.37.5
7. Ghost Who Walks (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham
151514171613
8. Enticing (5) J: Jason Brown (56kg) T: J P Taylor
2726263129.526
9. Absolute (12) J: Shaun O'donnell (55.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
1717181816.418
10. Storm Commander (3) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
3.33.33.23.33.253.2
11. Altani (8) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
1414141513.414
12. Fair Joy (10) J: Steven Parnham (54.5kg) T: Jade Tangaroa
13. Shock Result (2) J: Craig Staples (54.5kg) T: P H Jordan
1717171816.817

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 8:04pm (AEDT)

(2) Vane Tempest was ridden cold first up behind rising star Wilchino in 66+ Saturday grade. Back to a Class 5 here, gets a gun run should they ride her more positive today, which I expect they will.

(10) Storm Commander was beaten 1.8L by Treasured Star first up, and Treasured Star started favourite (and was incredibly unlucky) in Tuesday’s Burgess Queen Stakes. Gets a great run from barrier 3 and will be right thereabouts. Racing out of his grade in a Class 5 though.

(6) Beat The Bro and (5) Island Missile next best.

Tip: (2) Vane Tempest $3.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

201743

Race 8

Furphy Hcp (C1) (1200m)
8:37pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Furphy Hcp (C1) (1200m)
8:37pm (AEDT)

1. Pick Your Battles (12) J: Jason Whiting (60kg) T: G C Ballantyne
2. Talk It Up (11) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Luke Fernie
9.59.59.510109.5
3. Natural Spice (1) J: Troy Turner (59kg) T: P E Roberts
1919191919.819
4. Above The Peg (3) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58kg) T: Simon Miller
272626313026
5. Memorable Miss (8) J: William Pike (58kg) T: G & A Williams
4.54.24.24.64.74.2
6. Mightiness (6) J: Jarrad Noske (58kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
313131313434
7. Rock Hard Omaru (4) J: Taj Dyson (57kg) T: Kirsten Melis
1919191919.619
8. Belle's Fantasy (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56.5kg) T: D R Harrison
44443.94
9. Powerful (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham
1212121210.613
10. God's Blue Skye (10) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Darren Taylor
11. Safety Fuse (7) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D L Morton
2.82.92.82.82.652.9
12. Tabella (2) J: Ms Victoria Corver (54kg) T: A H Mortimer
616167818361

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 8:39pm (AEDT)

(11) Safety Fuse is another runner for the red-hot Danny Morton stable that should be going very close today. Won two starts ago and was only beaten 2.45L by Treasured Star last start after sitting three-wide without cover throughout. Keshaw Dhurun is replaced by Chris Parnham today and with even luck she is a great winning chance.

(5) Memorable Miss is first up today and likely to be back in the field from barrier 8. She might be better suited up over the mile and she’ll have some ground to make up, but you can never dismiss these Peters horses.

(8) Belle’s Fantasy should jump and lead from the wide gate. She’ll take beating on a track that could favour those on speed.

Tip: (11) Safety Fuse $3.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Safety Fuse

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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