Belmont Racing Tips: Thursday, November 4th

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 4:24pm (AEDT)

I was only interested in two horses here and one of them has been scratched this morning, which leaves me very confident with (3) Thomas Magnum. This horse ran well without much luck on debut as a two-year-old before being put away for a spell. He returns as a three-year-old today coming off a very, very stylish trial. Brad Parnham barely flinched a muscle on him as he went to the line under a complete stranglehold. Drawn well and looks awfully hard to beat. 

Tip: (3) Thomas MAgnum $1.85 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Thomas Magnum

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 4:59pm (AEDT)

Good little race this.

(5) Cobbanco was a big run on debut coming from back in the field over 1100m, recording the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting. That was after sitting three-wide without cover for the entire race. The step up to 1400m looks to really suit him based on that and provided they are able to run on, he’ll run a big race at each way odds.

(3) He’sgotwings is in a similar boat. He was also a good run on debut after overracing throughout, before finally getting his act together and finishing off well to run 2nd. He’s another that will appreciate the step up to 1400m but that means a slower tempo and he needs to settle better than he did on debut.

(11) Snip Of Glory has been good coming from the back of the field in both career starts. Likely to be back there again from the wide gate.

(9) Flower In The Wind was well supported first up but disappointing. Respect the market from that run though.

Tip: (5) Cobbanco $7.10/$2.40 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Cobbanco

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 5:44pm (AEDT)

Looks a race between (4) Market Stryke and (10) Pray Again.

Market Stryke will jump and lead from barrier 13. He sat outside the leader on debut at Northam and was only run down late to be narrowly beaten by Success Play, which then came out and won again at its next start.

Pray Again was well backed first up and ran home strongly to be beaten just over half-a-length. The race was run to suit those on speed. Belle’s Fantasy won that race and then came out and ran 2nd to Airlie Queen at her next start, so the form isn’t horrible.

(8) Westriver Miracle was a terrific trial when last seen but then never went to the races and has since been transferred to another stable. Reeks of something going wrong since that trial so will be happy to avoid today.

Backing Market Stryke who ran a much faster time than Pray Again on the same day and should take catching from the front.

Tip: (4) Market Stryke $2.40 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Market Stryke

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 6:19pm (AEDT)

The key to this race is (5) Kolchino jumping. He was a complete slug out of the gates in all his trials and on debut at Geraldton, but ran the fastest final 400m in defeat. Shaun McGruddy then went on last start and got him out of the gates to lead, and he was only run down very late by a horse with some talent in Mahaleo. Gets up to 1650m today and draws ideally in barrier 3. McGruddy is suspended so Shaun O’Donnell picks up the ride and if he can get him out, he’ll take plenty of beating, especially on a track that I expect to favour those on speed.

(9) Almaher Man looks the danger from the good draw after running 3rd to Advanced first up.

The early price for Kolchino is gone – he opened $4.00 – and now at $2.45 I have to sit out as there’s the risk he doesn’t jump well.

Tip: (5) Kolchino $2.45 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 6:54pm (AEDT)

If there is ever a no-bet race, this is it.

(4) Antique Jewel finds her race but she’s also gone down as favourite in her past two starts. Gets barrier 1 today and gets back onto firm ground, but she’s no good thing.

(5) Circle The Sun comes out of the same race as Antique Jewel and meets it 3kg better at the weights.

(2) Sunday Gin broke its maiden when he was lame two starts ago and was fair resuming from seven weeks off over the mile last start. Up in distance suits today.

(3) Rogues Point will run his usual honest race but always finds a couple better.

(8) Dance Of The South isn’t completely hopeless at big odds if she can jump better and settle handy. There’s no speed in the race.

 

Tip: (4) Antique Jewel $2.80 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 7:29pm (AEDT)

(2) War Warrior looks to have found a very nice race to resume in today. He was last seen running against the likes of Bragwell and Tri For Us, which reads well for a midweek Class 1. Dan Morton has trained 10 winners from his past 28 starters and four from his last 10. The stable is absolutely flying.

(8) Bourbon Beau showed a little bit of talent earlier in its career and now has a stable switch from Simon Miller to Anne King. Watch the market.

(1) Skater Boy will roll forward and could give some cheek.

Tip: (2) War Warrior $2.20 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN War Warrior

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 8:04pm (AEDT)

(2) Vane Tempest was ridden cold first up behind rising star Wilchino in 66+ Saturday grade. Back to a Class 5 here, gets a gun run should they ride her more positive today, which I expect they will.

(10) Storm Commander was beaten 1.8L by Treasured Star first up, and Treasured Star started favourite (and was incredibly unlucky) in Tuesday’s Burgess Queen Stakes. Gets a great run from barrier 3 and will be right thereabouts. Racing out of his grade in a Class 5 though.

(6) Beat The Bro and (5) Island Missile next best.

Tip: (2) Vane Tempest $3.60 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 4, 2021, 8:39pm (AEDT)

(11) Safety Fuse is another runner for the red-hot Danny Morton stable that should be going very close today. Won two starts ago and was only beaten 2.45L by Treasured Star last start after sitting three-wide without cover throughout. Keshaw Dhurun is replaced by Chris Parnham today and with even luck she is a great winning chance.

(5) Memorable Miss is first up today and likely to be back in the field from barrier 8. She might be better suited up over the mile and she’ll have some ground to make up, but you can never dismiss these Peters horses.

(8) Belle’s Fantasy should jump and lead from the wide gate. She’ll take beating on a track that could favour those on speed.

Tip: (11) Safety Fuse $3.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Safety Fuse