Warrnambool Racing Tips: Sunday, January 10th

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

An eight-horse maiden commences the day’s racing. The favourite (7) Thunder Park opened under the odds at around $1.65. He finished a length behind the winner at Horsham to place second, but the form out of that race has yet to be proven—so I am pretty keen to take him on. Similarly, the second runner in the market (9) Unassailable placed second last outing at Penthurst, but prior to that run he showed very little.

The horse that looks likely, on his past two performances, is the Equiano gelding (1) Bitaequi. He has now placed in consecutive races, both at this track. Last time it was behind the Wilde runner ‘As I Please’ who goes around in a later race (and which has every chance). He has had 14 race starts, but based on those recent runs, he has just enough of a chance to win as the top two—and at $14.00 you get a solid each-way play.

Tip: (1) Bitaequi $14.00 each-way Betfair

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Pretty happy to take the price about (10) Vitosha second-up for the Mitchell Freedman stable. She has had 3 starts for 2 places; the most recent was at this track behind Zac De Boss who went around yesterday as favourite at Flemington (in a much stronger race). It looks like the right form reference for this race, and if she runs up to that first start, she is going to be tough to beat. Also in her favour is the inside draw, where we can expect Daniel Moor to drop her in behind the leader.

Tip: (10) Vitosha $3.10 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Maher/Eustace runner (8) Lady Nelson is the one to beat here after a solid first-up performance at Geelong where she placed second behind ‘Breeze N Luna’ who would have this field covered. Ethan Brown takes over from John Allen, and he gets a nice mid-field gate where he can overcome the inside runners to lead, or alternatively sit alongside (1) Ianrex. That first run was on Heavy, but we can expect the Soft conditions to be suitable after his trial on Good (where he comfortably went around). Outside of her, it’s a hard one to find the minors.

Tip: (8) Lady Nelson $2.30 Sportsbet

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

The short-priced favourite, sensibly, looks the one to beat. (5) Hello Handsome placed second last start over 1000 metres at Kerang. Not sure he really beat a lot in that maiden, but looking across this field it isn’t a whole lot tougher. The combination of Egan and Payne is always worth watching, but the issue for me here is the price of $1.95—considering there are a few unraced horses that could turn-up.

The pick of them looks to be (7) Stylish Enuff for the Purcell yard. The stable has two runners, and Damian Lane gets the steer of this one. There’s always benefits in terms of race strategies when having multiple runners, and this could be a nice little set-up for Stylish Enuff. He trialed well-enough on Heavy leading into this. Considering his place price is better than the favourite’s win price, keen to have something each-way.

Tip: (7) Stylish Enuff $7.00 Each-Way Bet365

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Like the look of the Wilde runner (5) As I Please. First-up he won at this track over 1100 metres by over a length to Master Bartholdi who was due for a win. Third was Bitaequi (so interested to see his performance earlier today). The step up top 1200 metres is a positive, considering he had to come from eighth in running to win last start. The gate is a little sticky, but as a ‘get-back’ type horse; it may not change the equation.

The leader is going to be (3) Ferus from the inside gate. Already a winner in BM58, he has the premier historical form, however it has been a long time since his last run (264 days) so there is a question on fitness. The market likes him for now, so watch the betting.

Tip: (5) As I Please $3.90 PlayUp

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Koroit Cup is a BM84 over 1700 metres and it has some interesting runners lining up. Not overly keen to invest heavily, but considering it is the highlight on the card, it’s worth something small.

 We were pretty keen on (5) Humble Pie last start, but he was disappointing, and today he steps up in grade. With the sticky inside gate there is a query on whether this one maps right for him—happy to risk.

(2) Duke Of Plumpton has raced well in this grade and has a nice overall record. The query may be his preference for the wetter conditions, and the time between now and his last win. He seems to have gone off-the-boil, so he is another runner worth risking.

The other ones of interest (6) Moscow Red ran well last start, but this could be too much of a test, while (4) Dubai Dominion has some really mixed form.

The consistent one is (1) Tough Vic who has already won this prep (BM64) before jumping up to the BM84 races, and performing well. Three wins from this track, he drops back from 2000 metres last start to the 1700 metres. It’s a strategy I like in terms of fitness. He is a go-forward horse, so he might be vulnerable late. Overall, still the top selection.

Tip: (1) Tough Vic $4.80 Unibet

Odds Last Updated: January 11, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)