Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Monday, October 4th

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(9) Hoover Lucy will be all the rage here and looks pretty hard to tip against. Worked through her gears nicely 2nd up and should be primed for this now. This bigger track will suit her.

(3) Greater Harlem could be the danger coming off a nice trial win in between runs. They’ve taken the blinkers off here and the little freshen up might do him a world of good. 

(1) Castlereagh Kid did well on debut finishing 2nd over this trip to Clyde. Arguably should have won there with even luck so he can bounce back with more upside than some of these. 

Fav looks hard to beat but at the price I think GH could be worth a nibble.

Tip: (3) Greater Harlem - $6.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Greater Harlem

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Think (3) Dhakuri looks hard to beat here on the back of a dominant 2nd up win. He will have to rise in grade again but I think this horse is on the improve and 2100m should be no issues with the way he handled 1800 last start. Has been a winner 3rd up previously as well. 

(4) Shadow Girl looks a touch overs and was a winner 4th up last prep. She’s also a winner over this trip and looks to be building towards a peak performance. 

(2) Our Bambino is another who looks primed for a strong run now getting out to 2100m 4th up. He’s been good this prep without winning and just needs clear air in the straight. 

Tip: (3) Dhakuri - $2.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5u WIN Dhakuri

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

(6) Speech looks a promising horse and that debut win was as dominant as you’ll see. She travelled into that race so well and for a horse having her first start, did things very professionally. She’ll only take a heap if improvement from that and now gets Jmac on. Should be able to follow something into the race and round them up. 

(4) Battleton is another who comes of a debut win. He was hammered that day in the market and clearly has scope to improve. Would expect he’ll be out the back with the other fav making their runs together. 

(1) Aslav looks the big query runner having his first start since May. Won on debut over this trip before tackling some black type. Looks the other logical threat.

Tip: (6) Speech - $2.40 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Speech

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Think Free can run well here dropping out of a Group 3. The 3kg claim is a big positive and she maps for a nice run from gate 6. Was a winner her only start here at WF and she’ll give this a good shake. 

(6) Onedayclosertoyou is making her way through the grades nicely and looks to have found some good form this prep. She’ll be up near the speed and will be given her chance. 

(3) French Bonnet was a tad dissapointing first up last start. She’s a much better horse with a run under the belt so wouldn’t surprise to see her bounce back. 

Tip: (1) Think Free - $5.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5u WIN Think Free

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Hard to knock the form of (6) Ma And Pa who looks a horse on the up. Another low draw will suit perfectly for Nash to go straight to the front and should be too strong again. Might be able to take a sit off the Gaibott runners here and should be hard fit now 3rd up. The horse he beat last start has come out and won by 7L since.

Wish it was a touch wetter for (3) The Grinder who looks the value runner here for me. Was average fresh but 2nd up is always his go and I’m thinking we could see improvement stretching out to the mile in a race with a heap of speed on.

(2) So United was good rising straight to the mile last start and was only run down late by a couple of smart ones. Will be better for that and could be hard to run down here.

Tip: (6) Ma And Pa - $2.40 at Bet365

Value: (3) The Grinder - $16 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Ma And Pa, 0.25u WIN The Grinder

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

(1) Suave should be suited back in this smaller field and was a pass mark when resuming at Randwick over this trip. He races well here at the track and barrier 1 will give McDonald options in the run. Looks hard to beat but the $1.95 looks rock bottom.

(1) Soami comes out of the same race as Suave and beat him by 0.5L. He rises 1kg on that run however and I’m just wondering if he’s come to the end of his prep. 

(5) High Court next best. Gets his favoured dry track and 1400m today.

Tip: (1) Suave - $1.95 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 2u WIN Suave

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

Good race for the speedsters here and I’ll be backing two horses. 

(4) Marway is a jet out of the gates and should put himself up on the speed and can prove hard to run down. Especially with a run under the belt now he will be primed and his 2nd up record reads 3 wins from 5 starts. Drops in the weights for this and was scratched from Saturday with this in mind. 

(8) Valaquenta can bounce back here on a dry track. Just doesn’t have the same turn of foot in the wet conditions last start and I like the drop back to 1000m. Can wind up late and should benefit from the hot tempo up front. 

(2) Varda flies fresh and has winning form in much stronger races than this. Not sold on the trials though and she looks short enough. 

(6) Mossman Gorge can win fresh and will only carry the minimum for Tim Clark. Maps for a nice run.

Tip: (4) Marway - $3.50 at Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Valaquenta - $10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Marway, 0.5u WIN Valaquenta

Odds Last Updated: October 4, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

They’ve taken plenty of time with (2) Newsreader following the one fail last prep in the Denise Joy. She started $4 favourite there and clearly had excuses. The stable put her away and she’s had four trials since then leading into today. The work there has been good and gets in well after the claim today for Laura Lafferty. Her best form wins this race. 

(1) Zoushack was very good in first start for the airborne Joe Pride stable. Finished 2nd to Count De Rupee there and has won twice when 2nd up in the past. Will improve here today but the big weight and wide draw is some query.

(12) Patrolling will carry race fitness on his side and looks close to a win.  

Tip: (2) Newsreader - $4.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1u WIN Newsreader