Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, December 16th

Odds Last Updated: February 12, 2021, 11:46am (AEDT)

Only a small field but not a bad little race this. (3) Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy brings some ominous formlines into this. He’s only had two career starts but he was beaten by Watch Me Dance on both occasions, with that horse going on to do the Champion Fillies/WA Guineas double. Madam Torio and Dom To Shoot were also among the beaten brigade. He returns having won a recent trial easily in the second-best time of the morning, and he gets the blinkers on for the first time here. Looks the one to beat.

(7) Talkalicious makes her debut. She’s had two trials, being nosed out of the first before winning the second. Both were over 400m so it’s hard to get a gauge on just what’s under the bonnet, but she’s from a good stable and Paul Harvey goes straight on for race day.

(5) Hot Mix was a good winner on debut at Pinjarra but might need to improve again.

Tip: (3) Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy $2.30 Palmerbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Warm ‘N’ Fuzzy

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Surely today is the day for (5) London Miss. She’s been running super all prep without anything going her way. I think she’s been ridden incorrectly all prep, but she hasn’t helped herself with her sluggish starts. She’s run the fastest final 600m in defeat the past two starts. Carleen Hefel goes on today and if she jumps properly, no doubt she’ll be sent straight to the front, and if that’s the case she’s going to be awfully hard to get past.

(1) Apache Patrol won on debut at Pinjarra and now carries 59kg here in Class 1 company. He beat Kaptain Kaos who had previously run the best final 400m of the meeting on debut, so that adds some confirmation to the form, but there’s also the argument that the third horse should have actually won the race. Draws 1 here, might be strung up on the rail with no cutaway, and may find it tough to peg back London Miss if she’s leading.

(2) Town hall won here first up and then was beaten 3L by Ghobella, Son Son and No Surrender last start. That’s decent form for this but he gets a negative jockey change with apprentice Keshaw Dhurun replacing Brad Parnham.

(4) Domineer won well first up at Northam but this is a step up in class and the form out of that race is sketchy.

Tip: (5) London Miss $2.70 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN London Miss

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

Interested in (10) Rebel Heart at each way odds here. This isn’t a strong race and there’s a few things that catch the eye with this filly. She comes here first up with no public trial, she’s resuming over 1500m so you’d think they would have her ready to go, and the booking of Chris Parnham is a major hint. He rides at about 28% for this stable so it’s a good lead. Happy to take the $6.50 on offer to find out as I wouldn’t be keen to dive into anything ahead of it in the market with any confidence.

(8) Dellaraaj was awful first up at Northam but did start $3.30f so respecting that SP. Up to 1500m probably more suitable and should improve.

(6) Chokslam is rarely far away but has had 11 starts and is yet to crack it. She finished off OK last start at Pinjarra and should be peaking third up at 1500m but hard to be confident about her, so the $2.30 looks very skinny.

(3) Radiant Blue was blocked the entire straight first up and can be thrown in at $51.

Tip: (10) Rebel Heart $6.50 TAB

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Rebel Heart

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(1) No Surrender made it three wins from his past four starts over 1500m last week. He beat Captain Burglar and Son Son, which I think are much better horses than what he faces here. He’s used to racing on the quick back up, so the only real query is the step up from 1500m to 1800m. If he handles that, he should lead and win.

(4) Laylo has returned in good form, running 2^nd first up before leading all the way at Pinjarra last start. The track pattern helped her that day as it was advantageous to be leading, and she’s unlikely to lead here with No Surrender drawn inside her. Can still run well with just 52kg on her back.

(8) Losing Ticket was going legless up in Kalgoorlie but the seven-week let up helped her as she bounced back to win well at Mount Barker last start. She came from last on that occasion and can be included at double figure odds here.

(5) Regent Star has returned in good order but has struggled in five previous attempts at Ascot.

Tip: (1) No Surrender $2.15 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN No Surrender

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

I think the market is a bit wrong here.

(3) Classy Macro goes on top at $5.50. He’s a hard horse to catch – he can run last or win by 6L depending on which Classy Macro turns up. He won two starts ago over 1200m, where he beat (6) Ghost Who Walks by 2.25L, and he only meets that horse 1kg worse at the weights today, yet Ghost Who Walks is favourite at $3.70 and Classy Macro is $5.50. Classy Macro was only beaten 2.5L by Glamour Packed in Saturday grade last start and the drop down to Wednesday grade should find him very competitive. My one little query is the really firm track.

(6) Ghost Who Walks followed his 2^nd to Classy Macro with a 2^nd to Son Son, which reads pretty well in my opinion. Draws ideally and should be right there in the finish.

(1) Ohbeeh was sound first up at Bunbury. Better suited second up back at Ascot today. Won second up last prep and expect a more positive ride today. Should be hard to beat.

(5) Worth A Risk has won two from two this prep, but the form has been very questionable. She won first up at Northam and not a single horse out of that race has since won. Last start she won at Bunbury where she led all the way, but the track at Bunbury has been playing to leaders all season so I’m not sold on how good she actually is.

I think the real value in the race is (9) Regal Magic who comes into this third up. She was beaten 8L by Classy Macro first up, but she always needs the run first up and it was her first run back from a 62-week break. It was a wet track that day. She was much better last start, running 2^nd at Pinjarra. Her only career win came third up from a spell so she should be peaking today and if they can make ground, she should be in the mix at $19.

Tip: (2) Classy Macro $5.60 Sportsbetting

Value: (9) Regal Magic $26 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Classy Macro, 0.25 units WIN Regal Magic

Odds Last Updated: January 28, 2021, 9:26pm (AEDT)

The staying race is a bit of a headache. Not sure why (3) Rodomonte is double the price of (7) Showaddywaddy here. They finished right alongside each other two starts ago over this track and distance, and then they both raced at Bunbury last start where Rodomonte ran 2^nd and Showaddywaddy ran 4^th. On top of that, Rodomonte meets Showaddywaddy better at the weights from when they finished locked together two starts back, and only 1kg worse for finishing 3L ahead of Showaddywaddy last start. Doesn’t make sense.

(2) Arrowswift steps up sharply in distance from 1600m to 2200m and gets a 3kg claim to drop 4kg in weight from what he’s carried all three starts this prep. When he stepped up to this distance last prep, he won, so I expect some improvement today at double figure odds.

(5) Our D’amour draws well and should be hard to beat stepping back up to 2200m.

Tip: (3) Rodomonte $7.10 Sportsbetting

Value: (2) Arrowswift $10.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Rodomonte, 0.5 units WIN Arrowswift

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2020, 12:52am (AEDT)

(3) Excellent Dream goes on top here but I’ve been burnt before backing Carleen Hefel on Lindsey Smith horses first up that look good things. He’s won two of his three starts when first up from a spell, with a combined margin of 5L, so he obviously races very well fresh. I’d like to see them be aggressive from the inside draw and lead – if they take a sit it could be fairly painful viewing. But if they lead, I think he’ll be too good.

(12) Stable Secret looks a huge price at $34 and is likely to start longer. He’s not the worst chance though and I’m actually keen to have something small on at that price. He’s got a decent first up record and the same goes for his record at the track and distance. With Sasha Starley on board, he’ll definitely be going forward from the wide gate.

(6) Star Glitter is another at huge odds ($26) that can be included first. He’s likely to need the run but he goes well over the track and distance and did run well first up from a similar break last prep.

(10) Leica Jaguar won last start and has returned in good style this prep. Can win again.

Tip: (3) Excellent Dream $2.50 Sportsbetting

Value: (12) Stable Secret $35 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Excellent Dream, 0.25 units WIN Stable Secret