Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 3rd

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

(1) Montana Flash would be very hard to beat off his run two back, where he finished 4^th behind Zethus and Home Affairs in Sydney, but he was disappointing last start behind Stay Inside. That’s the elite Golden Slipper form so he’s coming out of the best race, but he was beaten nearly 9L there. The one to beat but I don’t think there’s much value.

 

(6) Tiz My Bay has gotten a fair way back but did chase gamely last start at Pakenham. Staying at 1200m is some knock and she needs to jump better.

 

(4) Power Legend is on debut and the stable had a recent 2yo winner. The jumpout was okay but he does draw well.

 

(2) Amegdul has been close up in two career starts and has to be respected, drawn barrier one for Olly/Cummings.

 

Tip: (1) Montana Flash- $2.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

A typically tough bm64. (5) Yulong Code is probably coming out of the best race behind Poland. The 1600m is some query although he was hitting the line well over 1400m last start.

 

(6) Derive got a deserved maiden win last start, with a lot of the credit going to J Kah’s ride. She took initiative and went straight to the front, never looking like losing from there. The 1600m has to be a big query with her.

 

(1) Liqueuro will definitely run a strong 1600m, dropping back from the 2000m. He’s got a big weight, and Stockdale is struggling for form at the moment.

(2) Lofty Star looks to own the lead here after scratchings. He missed out on a run in the Guineas but I don’t think the 1600m will be a problem and he could get a very easy time of it.

Tip: (2) Lofty Star- $8.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Lofty Star

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

Not the strongest field. (2) Queen Guinevere doesn’t have a great winning strike rate which is the knock but comes out of the strongest race at Bendigo behind Ripcord. The map looks good from barrier 3.

 

(3) Sanctuaire steps back up in trip, and her run two back when 3L off Mahashakti is good enough for this. She’s another with a fairly weak strike rate but has struck a weak race.

 

(1) Cake Walker drops a huge 8kg from last start after the claim. Her one go at this distance was a 3.2L maiden win on the synthetic course.

 

(4) Jungle Jane steps up in trip and would definitely be a good hope on her best form but isn’t going particularly well this time in.

 

Not much interest here- staying race for a bunch of fairly average mares and I’d rather bet later.

 

Tip: (2) Queen Guinevere- $3.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

Plenty of form to line up, but I’m siding with the Tasmanian (1) And Beyond who has ticked the 1200m box. He looked good winning last start when missing the jump and storming home by 2L. Apprentice Kyle Maskiell comes over to take the ride and claims 3kg.

 

(10) Home Rule led all the way over 1000m as the $1.65 favourite at Warrnambool. He did it fairly comfortably but there’s enough pressure here to soften him up at 1200m.

 

(3) Fixated is consistent and his last two runs when running 3^rd and winning should see him competitive. He lacks the upside of a few of these but maps to do no work and should be around the mark.

 

(7) Anglian bolted in with a maiden last start over 1300m and gets Olly from barrier 2.

Tip: (1) And Beyond- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN And Beyond

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

(2) Charm School looks a decent bet. She’s started sub $3 in both career starts (nearly a year ago), beating Malicorne on debut before failing behind Ecumenical in a group 3. She’s jumped out well and just needs a touch of luck from barrier 2.

 

(13) Yosemite has changed stables and was competitive in some good races last prep. She defeated Poland first up last prep before finishing midfield behind September Run and Swats That.

 

(4) Kaniva could be the value. She won nicely on debut and tried hard at The Valley behind Aquagirl last start and did beat home a few handy ones. Drawn out wide I’d expect King to utilise the claim and be aggressive to find the front.

 

(7) Circle Of Magic wasn’t far off Diamondsinthesky and Rainbiel last start which is good form. The latter ran very well in the Typhoon Tracy last start which ties in with a couple of these. Kah takes the ride which is obviously a positive.

Tip: (2) Charm School- $3.70 at Sportsbet

Value: (4) Kaniva- $14.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Charm School, 0.5 units WIN Kaniva

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

(9) Eagles Crag is clearly the horse to beat here and should be very hard to beat. He was brought to Australia after one failed run in the UK and couldn’t have been more impressive in a Pakenham maiden, sitting OSL and bolting away to win by nearly 6L, eased down over the last 50m. The overall time and closing sectionals were stronger than the bm64 on the same night and with Kah taking the ride, I think the $2 is more than fair.

 

(7) Maui won that bm64 at Pakenham and as I said, Eagles Crag definitely stacked up on the clock. Away from Pakenham is some risk for Maui.

 

(4) Prism is racing consistently as usual and will be thereabouts.

 

(5) Sky Horse is probably the main danger 2^nd up, coming off a solid run behind Silent Sovereign and Need New Friends, who nearly knocked off Chaillot on Saturday. He’s 2/2 at the mile and should be running on.

Tip: (9) Eagles Crag- $2.10 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 5 units WIN Eagles Crag

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

(2) Mystery Shot looks ready to win. He was woeful first up down the straight when drifting heavily, but put in a much improved performance at Caulfield, running on behind Regardsmaree and really picking up nicely the last 200m and through the line. He looks like he wants the 1600m this prep and any improvement off last start will see him going close.

 

(1) Biometric is racing really well and comes out of the strongest race behind Best Of Days, although he was probably flattered by how slow they went. He could get a fair way back from barrier 12.

 

(11) Independent Road is only 2 from 20 but does keep racing well and the form around him is good. He gets in with 54kg which looks attractive.

 

(9) High ‘n’ Dry was wide and not far off Independent Road at Flemington, also getting in with 54kg after the claim.

Tip: (2) Mystery Shot- $4.45 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Mystery Shot

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

Tough finish. (11) Fighting Harada resumed off a very long break at Pakenham and was too good with 61.5kg. This is much harder, but he has shown he’s up to it, albeit 2 years ago. Just not sure what to do with him 2^nd up off such a long break.

 

(7) Imperial Lad is bursting to win one and just got run down late on the Hillside over 1400m last start by a handy one in Merchant Of Venice. I still have my queries on him at 1400m, but he’ll get the right run and hold on at some point.

 

(10) Barbie’s Fox can run a race at double figure odds. I liked the run last start when finishing hard behind Silent Sovereign and Need New Friends when slowly away at Caulfield. Willo takes over from the apprentice and she draws perfectly in barrier 5.

 

(9) Sign Of Ussuri is a handy McEvoy horse first up. He’s won first up in the past and although the draw is sticky, the stable placement shouldn’t be underestimated.

Tip: (10) Barbie’s Fox- $13.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Barbie’s Fox