Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 3rd

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

Nice little open affair to start the day and there is definitely one I want to have a bet on.

(3) Tuscan Gaze gets back on top of the ground after a solid fourth placing at Kensington last time out. The Snitzel colt started reasonably and had to sit in the second half of the field on the back of some below average pace. He travelled wide throughout which didn’t help his cause but managed to hit the line with gusto, running the quickest last 200m of the race and the third quickest of the meeting. To accompany that, he ran the fourth quickest last 400m of the meeting after doing the extra work. He should handle the mile with no worries, and I can see them obtaining a spot closer in the run and that should give him a much better chance.

(1) Ma and Pa comes from the same race and will look to replicate his run first-up. I expect him to take up the speed from the ideal barrier and be fighting out the finish. If not, hopefully setting it up for our top pick and stable mate.

(7) Contract Signed has been backed in the lead up to this on the back of his run at Newcastle. Despite being slow out and finishing well, I thought conditions suited her with the pace in front being above average but take nothing away from her effort. She will appreciate the 1600m.

Tip: (3) Tuscan Gaze $5.50

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Tuscan Gaze FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

This is a challenging two-year-old race here with a handful that can win this.

(13) Yatsumi goes on top here on the back of a nice trial behind metro winner and stable mate Mazu. She was shoved a long a touch but still well held together throughout the trial and being the second of her two trials, will come into this with some fitness. She is drawn ideally and should enjoy the above average pace of this race.

(1) Trinity Missile pushed forward last start to sit outside of Emerald Bay at Gosford before kicking home nicely in a pretty quick race overall. This will be a lot harder, but race day experience will do him a world of good as will the likelihood of the gelding sitting on pace. He will need to from the wide draw.

(6) Otelo is a huge chance despite the poor draw. He started well last start before drifting back to last at Kensington after facing the possibility of a wide trip throughout. He flew home to finish fourth whilst running the fastest last 400m and 200m of the race, so the talent is there but he will be giving them a start.

Tip: (13) Yatsumi $9.50/$3.20 E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

This is a cracking race with plenty of value and chances.

(2) Bazooka goes on top for me with the expectation of a hot pace in this race. He stepped up in grade last start to a benchmark 78 in Saturday grade in a race that was controlled and won by Starspangled Rodeo. He started well and travelled well but faded in the end and he will love the step back in grade as well as a dry track. He proved the start before that this is more his grade and his record shows the dryer the better.

(7) Nicci’s Fling is another who is going to love this expected speed. She was very good in a benchmark 72 at Canterbury first-up before stepping up massively in grade to the Group 2 Light Fingers, where she was outclassed. Although she finished tenth, she was under four lengths from the winner and all nine that finished in front of her went to the Group 1 Surround in their next start, meanwhile she steps back to a benchmark 68! She is drawn well and should drift back and save her run until late.

(3) Much Much Better will go forward from the wide draw after fighting hard first-up at Newcastle. He should come on nicely from that one and be competitive once again.

Tip: (2) Bazooka $12.00/$3.80 E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit WIN Bazooka FIXED, 1 unit WIN Bazooka FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

This is definitely a two horse race, but it could go either way between the two.

(6) Quiet Riot is coming back from a break and a gelding operation, biding their time until they struck a firm surface. They will get that here and she did have a tick over trial to keep his fitness up which should keep him competitive first-up. He looks very promising and should position himself just off the leaders before striking in the straight.

(5) Coco Cuber is the one with a fitness edge and he is coming off a hard-fought win at Kensington last start, beating home The Neon Knight. He steps back slightly in grade to take on his own sex, but the query will be the 1200m where he hasn’t performed well in the past. Considering there isn’t much depth to this race, this is by far his best chance to win at 1200m and I will be surprised if he isn’t fighting out the finish.

(8) Isorich is a warhorse and will no doubt be thereabouts again here.

Tip: (6) Quiet Riot $2.80

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

I can’t go past (2) Exotic Ruby here and I think she starts a lot shorter come race time. Forget her last start after she was caught wide without cover and later discovered that she was 2/5 lame. The start before she beat all bar Vulpine who has since come out and performed well in Saturday grade. She steps back from the Group 2 Millie Fox to a benchmark 72 and gets a strong rider aboard in Nash Rawiller. She will be hard to beat.

(6) Grace Bay is a terrific each-way chance, and she has been racing well. She was no match for Brazen Gem last start, but she comfortably beat the remainder of the field. She will prefer the pace of this race in comparison to last start and I think she can run a huge race.

(5) Hyannis Port gets McDonald aboard after she ran against her usual pattern last start. She gets a half kilo swing on Exotic Ruby but I think she will need more than that to overturn their previous meeting.

Tip: (2) Exotic Ruby $2.70

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Exotic Ruby FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

(3) La Grisa is on the quick back-up from that horrid Gosford meeting last Wednesday where the pace was hot. She came home well enough before being shuffled back on the turn, but she did get going late to make the result a little less embarrassing. Back on top of the ground is a big tick as is the step back in distance. I think she wins, but I am not confident.

(2) Jungle Book is one that looks like he will be suited to the step up in distance. He has had no luck over his past two at Canterbury and he will be looking to bounce back today. They have drawn poorly though so the query will be the plan for the race and what is going to suit him best. He is probably unders due to predicted pace and map, but he is in form.

(11) Shadow Flight is over the odds and can run a big race. He ran a nice race in terrible conditions last time out and gets to step back in distance and grade here, which gives him a terrific chance.

Tip: (3) La Grisa $4.50

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

This is a one act affair, and many punters will be shocked if it is anything but a win for (4) Lost and Running. He has had two trials this time in and he dominated the last trial, which contained horses like California Zimbol, Forbidden Love and Saigon. Yes, I know it is only a trial, but he does things so effortlessly and I think he wins this in a canter.

(2) Marway has had a trial recently due to the gelding being scratched from other meetings, which was on the back of a nice win over this track and distance first-up. It does concern me that they have made so gear changes after a win and he does have to carry a big weight. He will be on pace and give himself every chance.

(6) The Neon Knight won’t be a push over here and I expect her to be in the top three.

Tip: (4) Lost and Running $1.80

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Lost and Running FIXED

Odds Last Updated: March 4, 2021, 10:36am (AEDT)

Tough race to finish the day and I am convinced that the market is all over the place.

(6) Saigon goes on top here after trialing up nicely behind Lost and Running. She is going to love the predicted pace in this race though she does have to take on the boys this time out. She should have some residual fitness from her run in December, but she does come to hand quite quickly and performs well fresh. She is slight overs each-way.

(4) Petronius has been gelded in his break and has had to delay his return due to track conditions. He gets the good track they wanted here though he likes to lead or be on pace, and there looks to be plenty of pace here so that probably doesn’t suit. He has the best rating coming into this race, but I want to see him return.

(11) Fashchanel is the best of the rest, currently under the odds.

Tip: (6) Saigon $8.50/$3.00 E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit EACH WAY Saigon FIXED