Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 14th

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 12:26pm (AEDT)

(3) Mynumerouno looks the horse to beat coming off a fairly dominant Swan Hill maiden win. He got a lovely run there and looks to do so again from barrier 3. The Nick Ryan camp is flying, the horse can only improve off that and he goes on top.

(4) Cecil Street Lad was scratched from Friday for this and has been well backed on debut. Jumped out well and won’t be a maiden for too long.

(2) Murrami Express drops back from 1400m to 1000m off a freshen which is a bit strange. The win over Set The Sails reads very well for this, but he might struggle to find a spot on speed over the short course.

Tip: (3) Mynumerouno- $3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mynumerouno

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(7) Continuance is an interesting runner. She started $2.90 and only picked up very late at Ballarat two back in a race won by Twist Of Fury, who she meets again. She meets that horse 2kg better at the weights and has been freshened for this, with an excellent jumpout since. Notably she went to the front in the jumpout, which is how she won first up at The Bool, so I think Prebble (who is in great form) is aggressive from the wide barrier.

(1) Twist Of Fury is an obvious chance but does go J Kah to Neindorf. Was too good in that strange Ballarat race and the key to her is clearly soft ground, which she should get.

(12) Tax Free Prophet has to be a chance given he ran 4th, beaten 2.8L by Malkovich last start, who nearly won a group 3 on Saturday. He had the 3rd fastest last 400m of the race (faster than All Of Brighton) and has clearly gone to a new level this prep. Soft ground is unknown but at double figures I want to be with him.

(11) Kev’s Girl was solid in that Ballarat race, just behind Continuance, and bounced back with a dominant all the way win at Swan Hill last start. Will lead them up and try to give them the slip.

Tip: (7) Continuance- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (12) Tax Free Prophet- $11.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Continuance, 0.75 units WIN Tax Free Prophet

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

(2) Choisir Lane was too good on debut last prep over 1400m, sitting on speed. Olly takes the ride and draws nicely, so he should get every chance.

(1) Lulu Darling won well on debut and was solid in a poor Saturday race since. Back to midweek grade and might be looking for 1400m now.

(5) It’s Classified ran 2nd to Lulu Darling two back, with a big gap back to 3rd. She was too strong stepping up to 1400m last start despite racing wide at Geelong. There’s not a stack between them.

Tip: (2) Choisir Lane- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

(9) Livingstone Falls looks ready to peak 3rd up at 1600m. She was huge first up and should’ve won over 1300m, started $1.60 2nd up and was unlucky again when held up. Now she’s built fitness and is up in trip, surely they’re more positive as they were last prep. Melham replaces Allen which is a positive and this looks her race.

(7) Worsfold is the obvious danger. He went back first up but powered home late in class 1 grade, winning well. Slight query given he bolted in on debut last prep and was beaten at his next two. Will need a good ride from back in the field.

(4) Highland Jakk was no match for Worsfold first up but will be improved.

(6) Toomuchtobear next best.

Tip: (9) Livingstone Falls- $3.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Livingstone Falls

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

(13) White Hibiscus looks overs. She got back and hit the line well first up in a strong race. King Magnus has come out of it and won on Saturday, and White Hibiscus is 2/2 when 2nd up. She had that dominant win 2nd up last prep on the Lakeside in fast time, subsequently starting $1.55 at Flemington and failing. Willo takes the ride, blinkers are on, $5 is a good bet.

(1) Ghodeleine was very good in the same race first up. Will get back with the weight and apprentice but has clearly come back well.

(8) Leale maps well and keeps Alana Kelly who is riding very well. This is harder than last start but will have a head start on a lot of the dangers.

(12) Under My Spell bolted in last start, is up to this grade.

Tip: (13) White Hibiscus- $5.00/2.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN White Hibiscus, 2 units PLC White Hibiscus

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

The favourite (11) Hosier will be very hard to beat, but at $1.60 isn’t a betting proposition. Has bolted in at two Australian starts and looks very promising. Races on speed and unless something goes very wrong, he’ll probably win.

(7) Feuermond is the danger in my opinion and I can have something on him each way, trying to get the odds on shot beaten. I really liked the win first up at Geelong over 1530m, settling last, coming to the outside fence (where most winners did), but he was still a mile off them in the straight and charged late in the 6th best last 200m of the day, the only horse to break 12 seconds for the race. Up in trip will definitely suit, and he does have a $2.90 SP at Flemington with genuine excuses. Happy to have a good place bet.

 

Tip: (7) Feuermond- $9.10/2.40 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units WIN Feuermond, 2.75 units PLC Feuermond

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

(10) Loveplanet will likely be the best horse to come out of this race. Two wins in his first prep were very good, bolting in by 6L to break his maiden and 2.5L at The Valley before a spell. Some query on soft ground given he ran 4th on debut the only time he’s seen it.

(5) The Difference looks ready for 1400m 3rd up, can go forward or back from the gate and is ready to win a race.

(14) Capodanno was good first up last prep in a similar race and does like it wet. Melham on suggests intent.

(6) Desert Dreamer won well last start, can continue to improve.

Tip: (10) Loveplanet- $3.45 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Not sure if (12) Brazen Bully is backing up from Saturday, which would be very interesting for a 1000m 3yo horse, racing twice in 5 days. If he is here, and the camp are happy with him, his form is very hard to knock. He loomed into the race as a winning hope but was a touch wayward and peaked on his run, beaten 0.7L by Deep Speed. I think 1000m might be more his go, and on class he’s got nearly all of these covered.

(11) Ziavera the obvious danger. She ran well first up in mare’s grade and does generally go well 2nd up. The 2nd to Miss Albania at the end of last prep is good form for this and Willo replacing Josh Richards is no knock either.

(9) Just Malcom next best, wasn’t suited last start.

If Brazen Bully were coming into this off his dominant maiden win I’d probably launch. The very quick backup, from 1100m to 1000m has to be a query, but I’ll trust the stable and back him in.

 

Tip: (12) Brazen Bully- $3.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Brazen Bully