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Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 14th

Tim Geers previews the nine-race card at Belmont on Wednesday afternoon.

belmont racing tips

Midweek racing in Perth continues at Belmont on Wednesday, where we have a nine-race card on what will be a very wet track.

After heavy rain all week, the track comes up a heavy 8, with the rail out 18m, with a cutaway in the straight.

Expecting horses on pace to be favoured and the cutaway rail could be absolute quicksand after they raced on that section of the track on Saturday.

Tim Geers has done the form on all nine races and provided his tips, best bets and betting strategy below!

Best Bet: Race 7 – (2) Mystery Man (save Crypto Queen)

Best Value: Race 4 – (6) Lollipop Lane

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Race 1

Morley Growers Market Mdn (1400m)
2:04pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Morley Growers Market Mdn (1400m)
2:04pm (AEDT)

1. Nick Of Time (10) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: G J Evans
119.5111111.210
2. Forty Niner (6) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Felicity Forbes-Ives
3.63.53.743.33.3
3. Gratias Deo (3) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: Daniel O'connor
55554.95
4. Dorado (8) J: Patrick Carbery (58kg) T: H S Mclaren
2626262625.526
5. Joyrize (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: D & B Pearce
1719181918.619
6. Lucie Manette (5) J: Troy Turner (56kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
1718181718.418
7. Artienne (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: L P Luciani
8. She's A Sweet Deel (9) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56kg) T: C & M Gangemi
2.32.32.152.252.352.25
9. Miss Rona (1) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Ray Miller
212121212323
10. Golden Tiara (4) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: M L Lane

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 2:06pm (AEDT)

Keen on (8) She’s A Sweet Deal here after a very good debut run behind the smart Stylax. She recorded the second-fastest final 200m of the entire meeting on that occasion. Has an awkward draw here but may play to her advantage with the inside of the track likely to be inferior ground. Winkers go on for the first time and at the prices, happy to back her to beat the favourite.

(5) Joyrize isn’t hopeless at big odds. Ran well last start.

Tip: (8) She's A Sweet Deal $3.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN She's A Sweet Deal

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Race 2

Glenroy Chaff Plate (Rs0mw) (1000m)
2:39pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Glenroy Chaff Plate (Rs0mw) (1000m)
2:39pm (AEDT)

1. Wuhan Warrior (11) J: Paul Harvey (57kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
1.851.851.81.91.861.8
2. Forever Autumn (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: T M Andrews
3. Hootie Da Blowfish (5) J: Chris Graham (57kg) T: Joshua Mcleod
2119312123.526
4. Via Monte (2) J: Brad Rawiller (57kg) T: D L Morton
11119.59.512.212
5. Talk Softly (9) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57kg) T: Coreen Maynard
514151614541
6. The Lady Is A Vamp (8) J: William Pike (55kg) T: L P Luciani
7. State Of Power (6) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: Simon Miller
3.53.53.43.53.453.5
8. Augusta Red (3) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55kg) T: A W Maley
616181818361
9. Tiny'n'tuff (7) J: Craig Staples (55kg) T: Matthew Scott
516767617371
10. Heavenly Miss (1) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
656655
11. Primative (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: L P Luciani

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 2:41pm (AEDT)

(1) Wuhan Warrior looks the obvious choice here after running 3rd in Saturday grade behind Storm Commander and Beads. Drops back to Wednesday grade and the wide barrier may be a blessing in disguise.

The interesting runner is (10) Heavenly Miss for the Parnham stable, coming into this off an 11-length trial win over 400m, although he only had one other horse in the trial. Inside draw a query on this track but no surprise to see it win off the back of that trial.

Happy to sit out.

Tip: (10) Heaven Miss $4.40 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

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Race 3

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs0ly (1700m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet-Rs0ly (1700m)
3:14pm (AEDT)

1. Next Stop The Moon (7) J: Ms Holly Watson (59kg) T: D & B Pearce
88.588.57.48.5
2. Native Chimes (3) J: Jett Stanley (58.5kg) T: Ms P Kenney
443.943.953.9
3. Luke's Choice (8) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56.5kg) T: Jarrad Noske
54.84.84.84.954.8
4. Conquered Zone (2) J: William Pike (55kg) T: G & A Williams
4.64.44.44.64.254.2
5. Costa Lante (4) J: Chris Graham (54kg) T: Joshua Mcleod
514151514941
6. Flying Target (1) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
1617181717.216
7. Miss Zedel (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54kg) T: A G Durrant
3.73.83.73.843.7
8. Power And Passion (5) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: P H Jordan
2321262625.523

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Keep me out of this one.

(2) Native Chimes started favourite last start but the saddle slipped badly, rendering it hopeless, so forget it went around. Form prior was sound but 1700m some query here.

(3) Luke’s Choice won over this sort of distance two starts ago before stepping up to 2200m last start. Sat wide without cover throughout so forgive him for that. Back down in distance, looks a good chance.

(4) Conquered Zone is a hard horse to catch and I’d be avoiding backing him as favourite here, while (7) Miss Zedel is hard to line up coming off three runs in Kalgoorlie.

Tip: (3) Luke's Choice $5.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

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Race 4

Free Entry To B. Park (Rs0ly) (2100m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Free Entry To B. Park (Rs0ly) (2100m)
3:49pm (AEDT)

1. Overthought (7) J: Ryan Hill (59kg) T: Fenella Martin
109.599.59.69.5
2. Crossaro (1) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: Patrick Keating
4.54.44.64.84.654.2
3. Aragain (9) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: D L Morton
3.93.93.83.93.53.7
4. Pretty Friar (2) J: Shaun O'donnell (56.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
998.58.598.5
5. Juliette (8) J: Ms Kate Southam (56kg) T: T R Harvey
77776.97
6. Lollipop Lane (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56kg) T: L Smith
1414151414.614
7. Showaddywaddy (6) J: Ms Madi Derrick (56kg) T: D L Morton
55555.15
8. Midnight Banquet (3) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55.5kg) T: O J Cocking
1616171516.416
9. Blaiszen Cazah (4) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
212121212023

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

Another very trappy race.

Interested in (6) Lollipop Lane here who could well run 1st or last. Resumes from a spell and goes straight to 2100m, which is an unusual set up but with this stable I’m not overly worried. The apprentice going on first up might suggest the horse isn’t ready yet, but it does need this distance to be effective. Actually wasn’t bad first up last prep over 1400m and the key today is leading. If it finds the front, it could take a lot of running down. If it takes a sit, our money is confetti. Expecting it to drift in betting so take Betfair SP and go each way. As I said, might well need the run and tail off but at big odds I’ll take the punt and find out.

Tip: (6) Lollipop Lane E/W $14 Betfair (take SP)

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Lollipop Lane

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Race 5

Crown Towers Hcp (C1) (2100m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Crown Towers Hcp (C1) (2100m)
4:24pm (AEDT)

1. Alkaline (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (60kg) T: A G Durrant
3.73.83.83.73.653.8
2. Ima Sly Fox (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (60kg) T: Ms S L Miller
3.13.12.832.93.1
3. Tactical Ploy (4) J: Chris Graham (60kg) T: Brian Rogers
2121192120.519
4. Man Of The Hour (2) J: Keshaw Dhurun (59kg) T: D L Morton
9.58.58.5108.48
5. One For The Road (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (59kg) T: A G Durrant
6.5666.56.36
6. Convalesce (8) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: S J Wolfe
7.587.57.57.58
7. Completed (9) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: J G Pike
1515151516.215
8. Darcele (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Greg Cave
464141614334
9. Hinchinmose (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: C G Willis
465141614341
10. Taxi (5) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: R C Mcpherson
151515171514

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

(1) Alkaline broke through for its maiden win last start at Pinjarra over a similar distance to this, setting a good tempo up front. Expecting similar tactics from the barrier today and with the rail out 18m, should prove tough to catch again.

(2) Ima Sly Fox drops heavily in grade after finishing midfield in Listed company last start. Looks the logical danger.

Tip: (1) Alkaline $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

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Race 6

Perth Racing Club Mship-Rs0ly (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Perth Racing Club Mship-Rs0ly (1400m)
5:00pm (AEDT)

1. Ginger Baker (8) J: Keshaw Dhurun (61kg) T: V A Brockman
554.84.855
2. Sunsphere (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant
6.56.56.56.576.5
3. Zac Luvs To Fly (1) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59kg) T: Ms C Stelmach
1919192119.619
4. Comealilbitcloser (5) J: William Pike (58.5kg) T: L P Luciani
76.566.56.66
5. Chaluke (4) J: Mitchell Pateman (58kg) T: Brett Pope
998.59.59.18.5
6. Olden (9) J: Ms Holly Watson (58kg) T: Daniel O'connor
1717171816.417
7. Tumivet (11) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: Martin Allan
4.54.54.64.64.54.6
8. Ghobella (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
43.93.93.93.853.9
9. Ready To Ride (6) J: Ms Victoria Corver (57kg) T: A G Durrant
10. Surrender Talks (10) J: Jason Whiting (56.5kg) T: L P Luciani
718181915781
11. Steel's The Deel (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: C & M Gangemi
464151614551

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Competitive race.

(4) Comealilbitcloser should be ready now, third up at 1400m. Comes out of a strong form race, gets the near-side blinker on for the first time, drops in weight and Pike sticks.

(8) Ghobella was very good first up and then a touch plain as the odds-on favourite at Northam last start. Will appreciate getting back to Belmont today in my opinion and third up should be hard to beat.

Other chances in the race but they’re the two I’ll be backing.

Tip: (8) Ghobella $5.00 Bet365

Also Backing: (4) Comealilbitcloser $6.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ghobella, 0.5 units WIN Comealilbitcloser

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Race 7

Amelia Park Hcp (C1) (1000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Amelia Park Hcp (C1) (1000m)
5:40pm (AEDT)

1. Apple Schnapps (3) J: William Pike (60.5kg) T: L Smith
4.24443.84
2. Mystery Man (2) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60.5kg) T: G W Dupre
5.55.555.55.55
3. Choice Bid (1) J: Chris Parnham (60kg) T: N D Parnham
4. Crypto Queen (7) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: Brian Kersley
2.62.62.42.52.652.4
5. Regal City (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: A W Maley
313131313034
6. City Cruiser (14) J: Ms Holly Watson (58kg) T: Russell Stewart
1919181818.819
7. Palaver (5) J: Joseph Azzopardi (58kg) T: Madeliene Young
516161616161
8. Strakin (6) J: Ms Kate Southam (58kg) T: T R Harvey
999108.68.5
9. Type Won (13) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (58kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
10. Spirit Of Prophecy (12) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (57kg) T: Alistair Chegwidden
466151514961
11. Stella Fair (11) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57kg) T: A G Durrant
8.58.5888.39
12. Magnuson Man (4) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: Roy Rogers
353434414134
13. Not My Fight (10) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Aaron Pateman
414141514541
14. Shezabutoo (8) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: Debra Lewis
91126101126111126

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 5:41pm (AEDT)

(2) Mystery Man is better than midweek grade in my opinion, so I’ll be taking the price about him to win first up here. He was very good winning first up over this distance last prep before going on to compete in tougher races. Hoping Laqdar can get to the outside from barrier 2.

Saving on (4) Crypto Queen who handed up the lead last start and then couldn’t run down the leader in time. Needs to kick up and lead as she’s quick early. If she does that, with the rail out 18m, she should be very hard to beat.

Tip: (2) Mystery Man $5.00 BlueBet

Saver: (4) Crypto Queen $3.00 BlueBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Mystery Man, 0.5 units WIN Crypto Queen

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Race 8

Schweppes Hcp (C3) (1200m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Schweppes Hcp (C3) (1200m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

1. Artie's Comet (9) J: Jason Whiting (59.5kg) T: Roy Rogers
1820212121.521
2. Convicted Man (4) J: Ms Madi Derrick (59.5kg) T: Sue Olive
1111101111.211
3. Excerpt (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59.5kg) T: A G Durrant
4. Special View (6) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne
332.932.93
5. Belle Of Liberty (11) J: Ms Victoria Corver (59kg) T: A G Durrant
6. Gunmetal Grey (8) J: Paul Harvey (58.5kg) T: R W Price
5.5565.54.85
7. Patrocity (7) J: Patrick Carbery (58.5kg) T: H S Mclaren
3.53.63.73.63.853.6
8. Smart Princess (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: J P Taylor
8.588.58.57.98
9. Domineer (5) J: Keshaw Dhurun (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
2121212620.523
10. What Planet You On (1) J: Unknown (55.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
11. Sumusu (2) J: Chris Parnham (54.5kg) T: L Smith
10109.5108.910

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 6:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Special View should be hard to beat fresh today. Won her first two easily last prep before failing at her final start of last prep. Wet ground a query as she’s never raced on it before but if she handles it, she’s the one to beat.

(6) Gunmetal Grey was good in her first prep, recording two wins and three placings from six starts. She’s another that’s never raced on wet ground but her form warrants her being respected here.

(7) Patrocity loves the wet and was good last start after sitting wide.

Tip: (4) Special View $3.30 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Special View

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Race 9

Heineken 3 (Rs0ly) (1700m)
6:57pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Heineken 3 (Rs0ly) (1700m)
6:57pm (AEDT)

1. Lordhelpmerun (3) J: Kristo Sardelic (62.5kg) T: S J Wolfe
7.5887.577.5
2. Nelson's Flight (9) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: M Morton
88888.38.5
3. Allez Allez (1) J: William Pike (58kg) T: V A Brockman
4. Bollinger Boy (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant
4.64.54.44.64.754.6
5. Street Fair (10) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: Brett Pope
888.58.57.67
6. Vital Flirt (7) J: Paul Harvey (56kg) T: D R Harrison
2.72.82.62.82.752.8
7. Musical Art (11) J: Ms Holly Watson (55.5kg) T: B H Hyde
676781818381
8. Diplomat Express (4) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: D S Barker
313134313334
9. Hezapro (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (54.5kg) T: M Santich
232126212626
10. San Crispino (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
9998.57.98
11. Differentiator (5) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Greg Cave
273134312934

Odds Last Updated: July 14, 2021, 7:01pm (AEDT)

(1) Lordhelpmerun drops heavily in grade and finds a suitable race, back to a No-Metro-Wins race after racing in a 72+ last start. On that alone, should be competitive.

(2) Nelson’s Flight did exactly that last start, dropping from a 72+ to a No-Metro-Wins and was only overhauled late. Should go forward and be tough to run down.

(4) Bollinger Boy doesn’t like winning but has been running well all prep.

(6) Vital Flirt was dominant last start and has to be respected, but does step up in grade.

Tip: (1) Lordhelpmerun $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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