Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, August 28th

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 12:21pm (AEDT)

(3) Tooradin looks ready to win. He’s had two runs at 2000m and been narrowly beaten in both, the latest by Hosier who looks very progressive. That was in a fast run race and he kept coming late, so I’ve got no issue with 2400m. A slightly softer track might have helped, but he maps to do no work and may even lead from the inside. Gets in with 54kg and looks hard to beat.

(1) Mahamedeis is on the quick backup and did win on the quick backup only a few weeks ago. He comes out of a brutally run race but does go up in trip and loves Caulfield. If he’s not flat he can win.

(2) Bedford loves Caulfield but was beaten fair and square by Mahamedeis last start. Strikes a dry track for his first go at 2400m which isn’t ideal.

With Tooradin, think he might start a bit longer though so play late.

Tip: (3) Tooradin- $2.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Tooradin (Best Tote/SP)

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 12:56pm (AEDT)

Going with the map horses here and I think (8) Deep Speed should be able to hold the lead from barrier 1 which is easily his best chance of winning. Kah off isn’t ideal but Lloyd is riding better than her stats suggest. Her ride on The Brumby at Sandown was a 10/10 for this stable, and this shouldn’t be a complicated ride. The market loved Miss Albania out of that straight race and this is a bit easier. Back around a bend and on a firm deck will suit.

(3) Destination is an out and out dry tracker and this is savvy placement from Godolphin. At his best he’s a very handy horse- he did run 2nd and arguably should’ve beaten Wild Ruler one day in listed grade, and his win last start was good when sitting 2nd in run. Olly is back in form, he should land in a good spot midfield from the barrier and can win.

Stablemate (11) Enfleurage has to be a chance. She started shorter than Destination in that race ($4.6 to $7.5) and did have to do a bit of work to find the front. She was first up off a year so she can improve, and meets Destination 3kg better. Lane goes on, she probably sits outside/just off Deep Speed and does have 0.3L 2nd at Caulfield in a Group 3, admittedly not a very strong one.

(5) The Gauch is progressive with a great record and did beat Pintoff first up last prep. He’s basically first up again here and is an obvious chance.

(10) Our Wind Spirit is airborne but does leave himself with plenty to do and likely gets back to last again.

Tip: (8) Deep Speed- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Value: (3) Destination- $9.00 at Topsport

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Deep Speed, 0.75 units WIN Destination

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 1:31pm (AEDT)

Wasn’t alone in making (7) Turaath a black booker after a dominant win last start, leading at a fast tempo and running her rivals ragged. I think she leads again and adopts the same tactics because she’s the fit, in form mare with most of her main rivals very early in their preps. Small query on a good 3 if we are on one, but she’s won on synthetic tracks overseas so I wouldn’t be too worried. Looks the logical, safe play and I can see her starting in the red.

(2) Annavisto is a mare I’ve always liked but her form is a bit questionable. She won a bm64 first up last prep, was beaten by Cumberbatch (with excuses) then beat Mozzie Monster twice due to map position, who looks completely gone since her 3yo days. She has to concede 3.5kg to Turaath off just one quiet trial which might find her out.

The one that looks overs is (4) Need New Friends. I thought she ran okay first up over 1100m in that Miss Albania race. She was outsprinted at 1100m but does have form here and progressed nicely last prep, running 2nd in a fairly strong bm78 when 3 wide the trip, and 2nd to Chaillot in a group 3. 1400m is her trip and she gets a lovely run behind the speed from barrier 4. Don’t think she deserves to be $15.

(8) Galgani might try to take Turaath on for the lead getting below the minimum weight but I don’t think she’s quite up to these.

Keen Turaath, with race fitness she’s going to take a stack of running down, and Need New Friends can run a place.

Tip: (7) Turaath- $2.20 at TAB

Also Backing: (4) Need New Friends- $15.00/3.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Turaath, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Need New Friends

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

Took me a while this race but I’m siding with the class and that’s clearly (1) Artorius. His Blue Diamond win was excellent, his Golden Slipper run when incredibly green was very good late, and his recent Flemington jump out was very nice. Would’ve preferred him drawn wider but if he’s within striking distance on the turn he’ll be very hard to beat, and the stable are confident he can do so without being 100% wound up.

Similar comments for (2) General Beau who apparently isn’t quite at his peak yet either. He ran well first up behind Ingratiating when probably going too slow in front. If he jumps and runs like he did as a 2yo and Artorius ends up 6-8L off him on the turn he probably holds on, but at 1200m which I think is still a query, he might not go all out.

(5) Mr Mozart was good in the Mckenzie and made steady ground. I think 1200m will suit him and he’s a chance of turning the tables on General Beau.

(9) Heresy is the lone filly in the race and ran well last start for 2nd to Gimmie Par. She looks well found at $4.80 however and I’m happy to risk her form against the boys.

Tip: (1) Artorius- $3.20 at Topsport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Artorius

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

Excited to see (1) Masked Crusader back. Didn’t really expect to see him here but he’ll clearly take a power of beating. Really lived up his potential last prep, winning the William Reid very impressively and charging home for 2nd in the TJ Smith behind Nature Strip. His trials have been outstanding, it’s just how much intent there is here. He’ll be last on the map, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him given a very quiet ride and hit the line, with an Everest slot already locked in. On weights and measures he’s a moral, but I don’t want to launch at $1.80 given the set up.

The most likely horse to beat him is (4) Oxley Road who comes out of the Miss Albania race that I think is a solid form reference. He had to concede 4.5kg to that horse and was clearly the best of the inside division. Should improve 2nd up and did bolt in his one go at Caulfield. Probably sits 2nd in run and if Masked Crusader is 8 lengths off him at the turn he might be able to pinch a winning break.

(8) Spaceboy should lead and is going well but just struggles to win. He meets Kalkarni Royale 5.5kg better for a 0.2L defeat.

(3) Crosshaven didn’t exactly fire last prep but wasn’t bad first up last prep behind Streets Of Avalon and Imaging.

All things equal, Masked Crusader would destroy this lot, but he doesn’t need to win this and at $1.80 that has to be factored in. Oxley Road really should be running top 3.

Tip: (4) Oxley Road- $7.50/2.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Oxley Road, 2 units PLC Oxley Road

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Great edition of the Cockram with two Group 1 winners at the top of the market. (1) Probabeel is the best horse in this race, with an excellent record first up, at this track, and at 1200m. She won the Bellmaine at this T/D first up last prep with 60kg, sitting wide but ultimately proving far too good. I think Lane is happy to employ the same tactics here- sit wide, keep her out of trouble, don’t worry about getting cover around the one turn, and she can still prove too good. She was off the map first up last prep too but has come up a much more dominant favourite here. Think she holds her price around $2.50 and goes close.

(2) Instant Celebrity is an interesting one. Clearly very talented having won the Sangster last prep, but the strength of that race is some query. Rubisaki didn’t do a whole lot subsequently and Subpoenaed was okay in two Queensland runs. Instant Celebrity’s worst run was her fresh run last prep, notably with top weight. She’ll need another great ride from barrier 3, as Willo gave her in the Sangster.

(4) Rich Hips could be the overs. She’s got a great first up record with 3 wins from 4 starts, the only miss coming on debut. She’s also jumped out very well and gets a soft draw. If this was 1400m I’d be keener, but I think she can run a race.

Tip: (1) Probabeel- $2.40 at Ladbrokes

Value: (4) Rich Hips- $12.00/3.20 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Probabeel, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Rich Hips

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Incredibly open race, mainly for stayers with plenty first up. Loved the run of (2) Angel Of Truth first up in the PB Lawrence, running the fastest last 200m of the meeting into 2nd. It was a better run than first up last prep and he bounced out of that to run very well here over 1800m, running the best sectionals of the race in a stronger event. If they hold a spot from barrier 5 he’ll be awfully hard to beat, it’s just how much intent they show.

(8) Mosh Music is one of my favourites and a big price at $26. First up last prep off 63 weeks she hit the line okay, which she did first up off a much smaller break this prep. 2nd up last prep at this T/D she ran the fastest last 600/400m of the meeting in arguably a stronger race behind Defibrillate. Gets in with 54kg here and can run well.

(7) Ziegfeld is going well in NSW and likely gets sent forward from the wide draw. Hits this 4th up coming back from 2000m so has a fitness advantage over most of these.

(9) Tralee Rose has class and will be hitting the line.

Tip: (8) Mosh Music- $27.0/7.50 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (2) Angel Of Truth- $5.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Angel Of Truth, 0.25/0.75 units E/W Mosh Music

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 4:47pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of the Group 1 Memsie Stakes, including a speed map and betting strategy, please follow the link below:

Memsie Stakes Runner-by-runner Preview

Odds Last Updated: August 28, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

Fascinating race with boom horse (11) Ayrton first up off a spell. He finished last prep with a dominant win in Queensland and has jumped out very well. My query is he’s drawn very wide which isn’t ideal here, and the stable have suggested they won’t be too positive out the gates. They’ve also made it public that he’s not fully wound up with The Epsom and Golden Eagle later targets in mind. Could blow these away, or could be solid 3rd.

(12) King Magnus looks a silly price. He’s flying this horse and should be unbeaten his last three, with Kelly missing the boat a bit last start and flying home to just miss. He stays right down in the weights with 51.5kg again and draws for a very economical run. With any luck I think his turn of foot can win him this race.

(15) Imperial Lad is flying but this does look a tricky race with plenty of pressure. Gets in light but barrier 14 isn’t ideal.

(10) Regardsmaree can improve out to 1400m and back to Caulfield.

Ayrton is clearly the one to beat but there’s a bit against him and I think King Magnus is a good each way bet at the price. I think he should be 2nd favourite at about $7-8 and Ayrton should be $2.50.

Tip: (12) King Magnus- $13.00/3.40 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W King Magnus