Flemington Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 22nd

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(1) New York Baby won her only start at The Bool earlier this year quite nicely. She’s spelled since then and 1000m should suit, but she does have to carry 61kg.

(2) Dueastar also ran in that race and was wide no cover, which was hard to do all carnival. She started $5 there to New York Baby’s $4.80 and the runs were similarly meritorious. Didn’t love the most recent Casterton jumpout.

(3) Forever And A Day won well on debut beating Heresey which reads well, but that was 1200m and she’s since been to 1400m.

(4) San Telmos Fire won well on debut and has to be considered.

 

Tip: (2) Dueastar- $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

First 2yo race of the season and they just aren’t my forte. (1) Contemporary has jumped out well and Godolphin colts on debut are usually ready to go.

(4) Nominator is perhaps the danger for the Waterhouse/Bott camp with Willo on.

Tip: (1) Contemporary- $3.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Going to have a spec on (4) The Duke Of Dubai at huge odds here. He led all the way on debut in what I think is a pretty good maiden. The 2nd horse Growl won very impressively on Sunday and the 3rd horse Extreme Flight bolted in at Moe last week. Completely forgive last start at The Valley where he was slow away, ended up near last on the inside, over racing badly in a much stronger race. At $41 he’s worth something 1×3.

(2) He’s The Ultimate ran in a very strong maiden behind Vilana and Frontman first up before bolting in on the synthetic last start. He has to be respected.

(3) Journalism should roll forward down from Sydney.

Tip: (4) The Duke Of Dubai- $41.00/11.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W The Duke Of Dubai

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

Siding with (2) Ashford Street who is very consistent. Many of the chances come out of a race at this T/D on the 7th of August won by Zorro’s Dream, and the top 3 were all back and protected from the wind, settling 15th, 16th and 13th at the 400m. Ashford Street sat 2nd in run and was only swamped the last 50m at his first go down the straight. Think he can run well here.

(4) Modear loves the straight and ran 3rd in that race, coming up the inside. Prefer her drawn out, although the rail is out 14m which might make things tricky for Llloyd.

(13) Teramia was very good in that race running 2nd and is a huge chance again.

(1) Our Wind Spirit has the best form in the race coming out of races behind Faretti, He’s A Balter and Second Slip. His one go down the straight was a forgive when lame. Neindorf back in the field doesn’t fill me with confidence but he’s a backable price.

Tip: (2) Ashford Street- $4.60 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (1) Our Wind Spirit- $11.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ashford Street, 0.5 units WIN Our Wind Spirit

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Very keen to see (2) Barb Raider again who I think is a leading Oaks’ chance. She couldn’t quite reel in the leader two back over 1400m but showed a very good turn of foot to bolt in over a mile last start. The overall time wasn’t great due to a slow early tempo but her closing splits were excellent, running the 3rd fastest last 200m of the meeting, only 0.11 off Diamonds Inthe Sky who was running over 1000m. The rise to 1800m won’t pose any issue and she really should be winning this.

(4) Blackcomb looks potentially the only danger, she did meet Barb Raider in the 1400m race and got too far back in an on-pace race, working home well. She’s since raced on the same day over the same distance as Barb Raider in the maiden. The overall time for Blackcomb was 0.1 seconds faster, but Barb Raider’s last 600m was 0.79s faster, her last 400m was 0.92s faster, and her final 200m was 0.75s faster. That says more than enough to me that Barb Raider has the wood over Blackcomb at this stage.

(1) Gonnadancealot third pick, she’s basically first up but has won at this T/D over the winter.

Tip: (2) Barb Raider- $1.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Barb Raider

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

My Derby pick is hopefully going around here too. (5) Footlights is accepted in the Gloaming Stakes in Sydney on Saturday, but no word on where he’s headed. If he’s here, he’s the horse to beat. The maiden win was very strong and he was a moral beaten against the older horses over a mile at Cranbourne, losing all momentum at the top of the straight when backed into $2.10. His last 100m and work through the line was outstanding to get 2nd, and he looks like a proper stayer. Olly on replacing Currie is a positive at the moment too.

Currie jumps on (8) Inverell who won very nicely on debut, sitting handy and proving too strong. He’s trialled very well since, hence the early market support.

(4) Venting comes out of the best form race behind Forgot You and Sandy Prince. That was a very fast run race and he didn’t completely drop out which was encouraging, finishing 4th. The draw hasn’t helped here but he’s a chance.

(12) Gundec started $2.10 at Geelong and only just went down.

If Footlights is here I’m backing him, otherwise likely staying out.

Tip: (5) Footlights- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Footlights

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Frustrating market because I really want to be with (18) Eagles Crag who is unlikely to get a run as the 4th emergency. He didn’t appreciate the walking tempo first up and got keen but still ran home to get 2nd to Mr Brightside, who is in this race. He meets that horse 5kg better at the weights and will be fitter. If he makes the field he’s a huge chance of turning the tables, and the recent trial was very good.

(3) Mr Brightside is flying and just keeps winning. He can land on speed from barrier 6, did win nicely against Eagles Crag two back, and the win since at The Valley was very good in a fast race. He got a nice run there but was easily holding off Worsfold and Chief Altony who came from a long way back. Hard to beat.

(12) Alcyone next best off a nice first up win. Up in trip will suit.

I’d be waiting to see if Eagles Crag makes the field, but given it’s very unlikely, Mr Brightside is still a very backable price at $2.60. If Eagles Crag makes the field, I’d simply be having the bet on him to beat the favourite.

Tip: (3) Mr Brightside- $2.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mr Brightside (if Eagles Crag comes out)

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

(16) Narvaez looks suited getting out to 1400m second up. He fought on well first up when outsprinted late, and 2nd up last prep at this T/D he ran very well when doing a power of work on speed. Gets map favours and will be hard to run down with a few dangers likely to get back. He needs two more scratchings to make the field.

(1) Yulong Storm is flying and ran very well behind Rainbiel at Swan Hill last start, but 1400m is a bit unknown. Drawn very wide, he’s going to be giving Narvaez a huge head start.

(2) He’s The Real Deel is also flying but I thought he had his chance behind Frankie Pinot last start and wasn’t good enough. The two wins prior were dominant and he can bounce back, he’s just very short.

(4) Saccharo can improve 2nd up off a nice effort fresh, but will also likely get a long way back.

 Backing Narvaez if he makes the field.

 

Tip: (16) Narvaez- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Narvaez