Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, September 24th

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Draft Day sat 3 wide no cover on debut but fought well to score a high rating maiden. There’s already been winners out of that race including Prowling, who he meets here again. Barrier 9 is a bit tricky over the 1200m at The Valley.

(6) Fire bolted in at Bendigo, showing a nice turn of foot from the front. He maps better from barrier 4.

(9) Minsk Moment won well on debut at Canterbury with a big gap back to 3rd. He’s trialled very well.

Tip: (5) Draft Day- $3.60 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 5:46pm (AEDT)

(4) Imperial Lad just keeps racing well, and no reason he won’t be around the mark again. I don’t mind him at 1400m, but his 1200m record is very good having never missed the top 3. He ran 4th to Ayrton last start and 2nd to Elephant before at 1400m. Back to 1200m, 57.5kg, he can only run well again.

(9) Lombardo was a huge winner in Adelaide last start. He’s always promised group class talent and he destroyed the bm78 field by 5.5L. Gets in with 52.5kg after the claim, if Kelly can hold the front from barrier 2, which I admit isn’t a guarantee, he’s got the talent to win this.

(10) Rainbiel was too good first up at Swan Hill. This is harder but she’s a talented mare and will run well again.

(12) Snapper did beat Rainbiel home when they met at this T/D and started shorter in the market that night. He kept kicking first up but just went down over 1000m, and is better suited here at 1200m.

Backing Imperial Lad and Lombardo.

Tip: (9) Lombardo- $3.20 at Bet365

Value: (4) Imperial Lad- $12.00/3.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Lombardo, 0.5 units E/W Imperial Lad

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

I’m with (4) Sandy Prince to turn the tables on Forgot You from last start. He started $2.70 here over 1500m and there was just way too much pressure up front on a very fast tempo. He fought them off, looked the winner at the top of the straight but the last 50m was weak and he was run down. He meets the winner 2kg better at the weights, gets a much softer lead from barrier 2 and looks the percentage play.

(3) Forgot You is a clear danger and his last 200m was very good to run down Sandy Prince. He looked suited to the fast tempo and was simply the best stayer in the field. A more even tempo, back and buried from barrier 3, I think it’s a completely different scenario. 

(5) Micro bolted in with a maiden last start but is fairly exposed before that.

(1) Mr Mozart did beat Artorius last start I’m just not sure 1600m will be his go.

Tip: (4) Sandy Prince- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Sandy Prince

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 6:46pm (AEDT)

Outside of Crystal Bound, I think the Cap D’Antibes is an awful race so I’ve gone looking for something different.

(2) Nice For What ran first up over 1000m at Cranbourne, well beaten by Direct but gapping 3rd. Direct is a handy enough colt (who we know are better overall than the girls) and has since run 3rd to General Beau and Ranveer on speed in a fast race. Nice For What does have form lines to suggest she’s a huge chance here- her debut run was the best in the race when just missing Dosh, who resumed with a 3rd in the Cap D’Antibes. D Lane sticks and at $17 she has to be overs given she’s just as good a horse as most of this field.

(1) Glistening hit the line well in the lead up but maps awkwardly again.

(5) Larkspur Run comes out of the best race won by Zouzarella, who is a short-priced favourite on Saturday. She maps for a great run with the red-hot Willo on board.

Tip: (2) Nice For What- $17.00/4.00 at Bet365

Saver: (5) Larkspur Run- $3.80 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Nice For What, 0.5 units WIN Larkspur Run

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 7:16pm (AEDT)

Having something on (11) Starry Legend first up as the 3yo in the race. He’s a very fast horse early, having led and won two races over 1000m to start his career in good time. He stepped up to 1200m in the Showdown and didn’t run it out, but he’s jumped out very well and looked sharp working with Profiteer, who is favourite in the Moir. He draws wide but I don’t mind that at this chute- there’s time to get across if you’re fast enough and Dee should be handlebars down.

(3) Esta La Roca is no slouch when she wants to be but she’s also accepted for Saturday at Sandown. She’s one of the other deadest 1000m horses and does draw inside Starry Legend if Richards wants to try and hold that horse out.

(9) Meteorite has that one huge win at this T/D one night in very fast time. He’s a bit hit and miss but has to be respected at his best.

This race has taken a solid hit speed wise with Starry Legend and Esta La Roca coming out. For that reason I’m going to play Meteorite at double figures who probably gets the lead and at his best is lightning quick.

Tip: (9) Meteorite- $10.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Meteorite

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

Good little race. (1) Homesman has class and races very well first up, and at The Valley. He’s a multiple group 1 winner and is coming off a 1.5L 2nd to Zaaki in the Q22 at the end of last prep. Has to carry the full 60kg which is the query.

(3) Defibrillate probably should’ve won last start behind Floating Artist. He drops in 4kg in weight but is just a bit of a query at The Valley potentially getting back in the field. He has won here but that was a 2500m bm78 against horses I can’t even remember.

The one that could upset is (5) Al Galayel who won this race last year and absolutely loves The Valley (4 wins from 9 starts including 3/6 at this T/D). He’s been a bit disappointing in two runs this prep and as an 8yo that’s not ideal, but last prep he was awful 1st and 2nd up before running a much-improved 4th to Romancer and Orderofthegarter which reads well. He’s had a trial and a track gallop since, Allen goes on, 55kg, drawn well, he’s set to peak.

Tip: (5) Al Galayel- $18.00/4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Al Galayel

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 8:16pm (AEDT)

For my comprehensive runner by runner preview of the Moir Stakes including speed map, analysis and betting strategy, please follow the link: https://www.racingbet.com.au/moir-stakes-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: September 24, 2021, 8:46pm (AEDT)

This is an absolute lottery. I like (12) Butter Chicken as a horse, and she trialled enormously leading into her first up run in the Let’s Elope where she hit the line well. Up to 1600m is a big tick but she’s drawn horribly and will be a long way back.

(1) Quantum Mechanic is probably the best horse in the race but she’s only 2nd up and was a bit plain in the Let’s Elope. Her run 2nd up last prep at Flemington, whilst in bm70 grade, was enormous, and she did win the Autumn equivalent of this race but was deeper in her prep.

(9) So You Assume is the map horse. She’s had a let up but had a decent trial in between, and did bolt in at this T/D two back when leading. On class she’s not quite up to these yet, but that might not matter if she gets an easy lead.

(13) Miss Guggenheim has upside and did win well last start.

Not betting here- So You Assume is the map horse but others have more talent yet might not be suited. 

Tip: (9) So You Assume- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet