Trent Crebbin has you covered with his runner by runner analysis of the race, including his speed map and betting strategy.
Tipping the 3yo Profiteer finds the front from barrier 7. He’s a very quick beginner and there’s not a huge amount of speed for a group one over 1000m. He’ll cross and lead from Ballistic Lover and Miss Albania if she begins better will look to come across and sit outside the lead. Wild Ruler maps well just behind the speed, Shaquero possibly 3 back the fence or box seat, Portland Sky will look to slot in with Swats That, The Inferno next pair outside of Trekking with September Run last the fence and Brooklyn Hustle outside her.
1. Trekking- Ran 2nd in this race last year to the speed machine Pippie. He’s obviously a high class sprinter and very consistent, but the fact is he’s not an 1000m horse. Ran well first up behind Nature Strip, but that horse was dominant and he’s finished behind Wild Ruler and in front of Handle The Truth. He does have a very strong 2nd up record, but I think he’s definitely past his best- all the runs in Queensland last prep were a couple of lengths off where he needs to be, and staying at 1000m I’m happy to oppose.
2. Wild Ruler- Beat home Trekking in the Concorde and did look half a chance of serving it up to Nature Strip at the top of the straight but was no match late. I’m still yet to see a proper, group 1 performance from this horse. He’s won at group 2 level as a 3yo, placed in a Coolmore behind September Run and Swats That and other than that he’s been a bit of a flat track bully. He maps beautifully again, which he seems to do every start of his life, but he does also go better first up than second up and I’m risking.
3. The Inferno– Comes out of the T/D lead up where he ripped off some huge late sectionals to win well off an average tempo. I think the race he’s coming out of is a bit questionable, outside the top 3, but that turn of foot is going to win him plenty of races. My query here is can he repeat the effort off a potentially faster tempo whilst staying at 1000m? All his form in Singapore was at 1200m, and a fast run 1000m can be hard to absorb and sprint off. He gets a decent map from barrier 5, likely off the fence and not last pair, and will be charging late.
The Inferno comes storming home in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes! pic.twitter.com/ru8rGCKGFG
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) September 4, 2021
4. Portland Sky- Has to have a case off his SP in the Mcewen, given he started $2.45 to The Inferno’s $6. He had every chance there on speed but was only first up and perhaps went too slowly in front. This horse’s best performance was dead-heating in a brutally run Oakleigh Plate where he absorbed the pressure and kept kicking. His run here in the William Reid was solid behind Masked Crusader but he did get every favour on the monorail that night, which I can’t see here.
5. September Run- She was very good first up behind The Inferno, actually running a better last 400/200m, but I absolutely hate barrier 1 at the valley for her. She actually seems to go quite well at this track- her run in the William Reid was very good against the bias, but she’s going to need absolutely everything to go her way from the inside. I’d rather be with The Inferno or Portland Sky out of that race just given the map.
6. Swats That- She was very good first up last prep in the Lightning behind Nature Strip and September Run, but just fair in the William Reid when well beaten by Portland Sky and September Run. Her whole career she’s never been quite as good as her rival September Run in my opinion, but she’s consistent and should run well if she can get into a nice spot from an awkward barrier.
7. Brooklyn Hustle- Good mare that is still looking for her maiden group 1. She was desperately unlucky in the Oakleigh Plate and the Newmarket, but she loves finding bad luck. She ran 4th in this race last year, running the best last 600/400m of the race for 4th, and it looks a similar scenario again. Drawn the carpark and with no early speed, she’ll be last and looking to circle the field. The wide draw is better than September Run in 1, but I think she’s better over 1200m and will give them too big a start.
8. Ballistic Lover- Looks very short for a horse coming out of listed grade to her first group 1. She got every favour last start at this T/D and won an awful race, beating Esta La Roca, who is in the 955m race, and Miss Albania who blew the start. Can’t see her winning, she does draw for a nice run but I don’t think she’s quick enough to lead and might end up being a roadblock for a couple.
9. Miss Albania- She completely blew the start in the race won by Ballistic Lover last start when backed off the map and ran on okay, but prior to that she was winning (narrowly) in bm84 grade. I like the horse, but this is too tough at WFA. If she jumps better, she can follow Profiteer across and sit 2nd in run, but I can’t see her figuring.
10. Shaquero- Interesting runner as the other 3yo down in the weights. He’s 1/1 at 1000m but that was on debut, and I think he’s probably better at 1200m, but I thought that with Ranch Hand who beat Ingratiating first up and profiles similarly. Off their 3yo form last prep he’s got a few lengths to make up on Profiteer, but the Pago Pago win was solid enough, he’ll just need a bit of luck from 2. The trials have been solid without raving, he could be marked shorter than Ballistic Lover and I’d rather be on him at $31 than a couple others.
11. Profiteer- Everything just sets up beautifully for him. I don’t think there’s anything quick enough to lead him- he’s so quick out of the barriers. His first two starts over 1100m were dominant, beating a pretty handy horse in Ranveer on debut. He got too keen at 1200m in the Todman but was still only beaten a head by Anamoe, before failing in the Slipper. All his jumpouts leading into this have been outstanding- he’s jumped well and been settling when something wants to lead him such as Enthaar in the Sandown jumpout. Extreme Choice and She Will Reign have won this race as 3yo’s in recent years, and when there is a good one, they generally run well. If Jye plays to his strengths and goes fast, he’s going to be very hard to run down and is a very backable price.
Anamoe knocks off Profiteer in the Todman Stakes… pic.twitter.com/XsoI0QBOz7
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) March 6, 2021
I have to be with Profiteer here. He’s the fastest horse in the race and with his gate speed should be able to lead from barrier 7 out of the chute. Despite never having raced at 1000m, everything he does suggests the short course is ideal. There isn’t much pressure for a Moir in reality, and with a well-judged ride and provided he doesn’t over race, which I doubt he will over 1000m and off his jumpouts, he’s going to be nearly impossible to run down. The Inferno is the danger, his win in the Mcewen was very good but this is a very different scenario. Portland Sky can bounce back off his SP last start and in a faster race and Shaquero is the best roughie with the Waller Queensland prep.
2.5 units WIN Profiteer