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Flemington Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 22nd

The Derby and Oaks’ trials headline a great day at Flemington on Saturday and Trent Crebbin has previewed every race.

flemington racing tips

A great day of racing at Flemington on Wednesday with the Derby and Oaks’ trials headlining the card.

Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card and his best bet comes up in Race 5.

The track is rated a soft 5 and the rail is out 14 metres.

Best Bet- Race 5 (2) Barb Raider

Best Value- Race 3 (4) The Duke Of Dubai

TAB Sky Racing

198310

Race 1

Rokon Sprint (Bm64) (1000m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Rokon Sprint (Bm64) (1000m)
1:00pm (AEDT)

1. New York Baby (2) J: Damien Oliver (61kg) T: L & T Corstens
2.82.82.92.82.92.8
2. Dueastar (5) J: Dean Yendall (59.5kg) T: M J Williams
6.56.5776.76.5
3. Forever And A Day (6) J: Damian Lane (59.5kg) T: D T O'brien
3.73.73.63.83.43.7
4. San Telmos Fire (3) J: Zac Spain (59.5kg) T: C W Mcdonald
7.57.577.57.47.5
5. Niccolite (4) J: Jordan Childs (58.5kg) T: G M Begg
55.5555.35.5
6. Little Schnitty (1) J: Lachlan King (56.5kg) T: L & T Corstens
181720212016

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 1:01pm (AEDT)

(1) New York Baby won her only start at The Bool earlier this year quite nicely. She’s spelled since then and 1000m should suit, but she does have to carry 61kg.

(2) Dueastar also ran in that race and was wide no cover, which was hard to do all carnival. She started $5 there to New York Baby’s $4.80 and the runs were similarly meritorious. Didn’t love the most recent Casterton jumpout.

(3) Forever And A Day won well on debut beating Heresey which reads well, but that was 1200m and she’s since been to 1400m.

(4) San Telmos Fire won well on debut and has to be considered.

 

Tip: (2) Dueastar- $6.50 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

198310

Race 2

Darley Spring Preview (900m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Darley Spring Preview (900m)
1:35pm (AEDT)

1. Contemporary (7) J: Damien Oliver (58kg) T: James Cummings
1.91.851.851.91.881.85
2. Eltanin (3) J: Craig Newitt (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
8.587.57.58.67.5
3. Excel And Fly (5) J: Daniel Stackhouse (58kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
262626262326
4. Nominator (4) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
555.55.555.5
5. Cavalla (1) J: Patrick Moloney (56kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
1112111211.411
6. Little Strawberry (6) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: Clayton Douglas
2626262624.526
7. Runaway Belle (2) J: Ben Allen (56kg) T: P Stokes
1111111211.411
8. Yakutsk (8) J: Joe Bowditch (56kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell
1313131512.413

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 1:36pm (AEDT)

First 2yo race of the season and they just aren’t my forte. (1) Contemporary has jumped out well and Godolphin colts on debut are usually ready to go.

(4) Nominator is perhaps the danger for the Waterhouse/Bott camp with Willo on.

Tip: (1) Contemporary- $3.30 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

198310

Race 3

Myer Fashions (Bm64) (1420m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Myer Fashions (Bm64) (1420m)
2:10pm (AEDT)

1. Zerelle (1) J: Craig Newitt (60.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
1515131615.414
2. He's The Ultimate (9) J: Luke Nolen (59.5kg) T: P G Moody
44443.94.2
3. Journalism (13) J: Jordan Childs (59.5kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
887.58.58.38
4. The Duke Of Dubai (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (59.5kg) T: M D Moroney
413434413434
5. Cheerful Moment (7) J: Jye Mcneil (59kg) T: L Smith
2321262626.526
6. El Rocko (12) J: Jamie Mott (59kg) T: John Mcardle
2021212120.521
7. Festivus (10) J: Luke Currie (59kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
9.599.510109
8. Get On The Gas (5) J: Damien Oliver (59kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell
9.51011108.810
9. Mattash (4) J: Blaike Mcdougall (59kg) T: D J Mccarthy
10. Morecoruba (8) J: Josh Richards (59kg) T: J R Welsh
87.5778.17.5
11. Tramontana (2) J: John Allen (58.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
1212131210.611
12. Cuban Link (3) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: G Eurell
77.57.57.57.57.5
13. Playing It Safe (11) J: Declan Bates (57kg) T: L Smith
1211121212.212

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Going to have a spec on (4) The Duke Of Dubai at huge odds here. He led all the way on debut in what I think is a pretty good maiden. The 2nd horse Growl won very impressively on Sunday and the 3rd horse Extreme Flight bolted in at Moe last week. Completely forgive last start at The Valley where he was slow away, ended up near last on the inside, over racing badly in a much stronger race. At $41 he’s worth something 1×3.

(2) He’s The Ultimate ran in a very strong maiden behind Vilana and Frontman first up before bolting in on the synthetic last start. He has to be respected.

(3) Journalism should roll forward down from Sydney.

Tip: (4) The Duke Of Dubai- $41.00/11.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W The Duke Of Dubai

198310

Race 4

Resimax Trophy (Bm70) (1100m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Resimax Trophy (Bm70) (1100m)
2:45pm (AEDT)

1. Our Wind Spirit (17) J: Lachlan Neindorf (62kg) T: L Smith
76.56.576.26
2. Ashford Street (8) J: Ms Tatum Bull (61kg) T: Simon Ryan
4.64.84.854.854.8
3. Azaly (12) J: Luke Nolen (61kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
414134413834
4. Modear (14) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (60.5kg) T: Patrick Payne
5. Lady Pluck (11) J: Josh Richards (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
1414141513.814
6. Conceited (4) J: Damien Oliver (59.5kg) T: James Cummings
111011119.211
7. Bones (3) J: Daniel Moor (59kg) T: Mitchell Freedman
678181818171
8. Button Express (5) J: Lachlan King (59kg) T: Ray Matthews
2626262626.526
9. Moor Wanted (1) J: Damien Thornton (59kg) T: P A Chow
2121212118.421
10. Quiet Lucky (10) J: John Allen (59kg) T: Ms W Church
615151516151
11. Cosmic Rhapsody (18) J: Will Price (58.5kg) T: Ms M Cunningham
414151414141
12. Veranskova (15) J: Jye Mcneil (57.5kg) T: Ms C Alderson
43.93.943.953.9
13. Teramia (7) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: M M Laurie
4.64.84.64.64.95
14. Ruby Street (13) J: Teodore Nugent (56.5kg) T: K L Corstens
1817202118.218
15. Saorsa (6) J: Jake Noonan (58.5kg) T: R W Harrison
16. Chipsaredown (16) J: Blaike Mcdougall (58kg) T: Sylvia Thompson
17. Spare Change (2) J: Thomas Stockdale (57.5kg) T: Shane Stockdale
18. Universal Lady (9) J: Unknown (55kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 2:46pm (AEDT)

Siding with (2) Ashford Street who is very consistent. Many of the chances come out of a race at this T/D on the 7th of August won by Zorro’s Dream, and the top 3 were all back and protected from the wind, settling 15th, 16th and 13th at the 400m. Ashford Street sat 2nd in run and was only swamped the last 50m at his first go down the straight. Think he can run well here.

(4) Modear loves the straight and ran 3rd in that race, coming up the inside. Prefer her drawn out, although the rail is out 14m which might make things tricky for Llloyd.

(13) Teramia was very good in that race running 2nd and is a huge chance again.

(1) Our Wind Spirit has the best form in the race coming out of races behind Faretti, He’s A Balter and Second Slip. His one go down the straight was a forgive when lame. Neindorf back in the field doesn’t fill me with confidence but he’s a backable price.

Tip: (2) Ashford Street- $4.60 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (1) Our Wind Spirit- $11.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ashford Street, 0.5 units WIN Our Wind Spirit

198310

Race 5

Kennedy Oaks Preview (1800m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Kennedy Oaks Preview (1800m)
3:20pm (AEDT)

1. Gonnadancealot (9) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
7.57.57.57.57.77
2. Barb Raider (8) J: Craig Williams (57kg) T: Jerome Hunter
1.61.61.61.651.621.6
3. Tiz My Bay (7) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: R Griffiths & M De Kock
1615161616.215
4. Blackcomb (2) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: D T O'brien
665.565.96
5. Game Legend (10) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: J D Sadler
1918181617.218
6. Morrissette (11) J: Teodore Nugent (56kg) T: Simon Ryan
2020181919.419
7. Vanzali (1) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: N A Blackiston
353434414134
8. London Lemming (5) J: Lachlan King (56kg) T: Brian Mcgrath
201201151201191201
9. Stavanger (12) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
464151514041
10. Fabiola (3) J: Craig Newitt (56kg) T: K & K Keys
616167716761
11. Laelaps (13) J: John Allen (56kg) T: D T O'brien
515161616151
12. Commando Drift (4) J: Fred Kersley (56kg) T: D T O'brien
13. Sabre Athena (6) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: Tim Hughes
126126201151131151

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

Very keen to see (2) Barb Raider again who I think is a leading Oaks’ chance. She couldn’t quite reel in the leader two back over 1400m but showed a very good turn of foot to bolt in over a mile last start. The overall time wasn’t great due to a slow early tempo but her closing splits were excellent, running the 3rd fastest last 200m of the meeting, only 0.11 off Diamonds Inthe Sky who was running over 1000m. The rise to 1800m won’t pose any issue and she really should be winning this.

(4) Blackcomb looks potentially the only danger, she did meet Barb Raider in the 1400m race and got too far back in an on-pace race, working home well. She’s since raced on the same day over the same distance as Barb Raider in the maiden. The overall time for Blackcomb was 0.1 seconds faster, but Barb Raider’s last 600m was 0.79s faster, her last 400m was 0.92s faster, and her final 200m was 0.75s faster. That says more than enough to me that Barb Raider has the wood over Blackcomb at this stage.

(1) Gonnadancealot third pick, she’s basically first up but has won at this T/D over the winter.

Tip: (2) Barb Raider- $1.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4 units WIN Barb Raider

198310

Race 6

Penfolds Vic. Derby Preview (1800m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Penfolds Vic. Derby Preview (1800m)
3:55pm (AEDT)

1. Celestial Fury (12) J: Craig Newitt (58.5kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
272626262526
2. Rhinoceros (13) J: Jordan Childs (57kg) T: E & D Browne
1516151514.215
3. Saint Tropez (10) J: Joe Bowditch (56kg) T: Lloyd Kennewell
9.599.599.19
4. Venting (15) J: Damian Lane (56kg) T: D T O'brien
8888.57.67.5
5. Footlights (8) J: Damien Oliver (56kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
444.24.24.054
6. Sharper (3) J: Jye Mcneil (56kg) T: M E Templeton
516161716971
7. Grinzinger King (5) J: John Allen (56kg) T: D T O'brien
65.555.55.55.5
8. Inverell (7) J: Luke Currie (56kg) T: Clayton Douglas
66666.16
9. Sebastian The Fox (2) J: Jarrod Fry (56kg) T: Shay Keating
718181818381
10. Top Boy (6) J: Dean Holland (56kg) T: J P Salanitri
201201151201221151
11. Storm De Lune (11) J: Damien Thornton (56kg) T: M Ellerton & S Zahra
1717161617.216
12. Gundec (9) J: Craig Williams (56kg) T: Symon Wilde
76.56.56.56.67
13. Magic Mikey (1) J: Declan Bates (56kg) T: S Foster
616161615961
14. Fazzabeel (16) J: Brett Prebble (56kg) T: C J Waller
15. Shabalala (14) J: Fred Kersley (56kg) T: D T O'brien
16. Alpine Aviator (4) J: Daniel Stackhouse (56kg) T: M M Laurie

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:56pm (AEDT)

My Derby pick is hopefully going around here too. (5) Footlights is accepted in the Gloaming Stakes in Sydney on Saturday, but no word on where he’s headed. If he’s here, he’s the horse to beat. The maiden win was very strong and he was a moral beaten against the older horses over a mile at Cranbourne, losing all momentum at the top of the straight when backed into $2.10. His last 100m and work through the line was outstanding to get 2nd, and he looks like a proper stayer. Olly on replacing Currie is a positive at the moment too.

Currie jumps on (8) Inverell who won very nicely on debut, sitting handy and proving too strong. He’s trialled very well since, hence the early market support.

(4) Venting comes out of the best form race behind Forgot You and Sandy Prince. That was a very fast run race and he didn’t completely drop out which was encouraging, finishing 4th. The draw hasn’t helped here but he’s a chance.

(12) Gundec started $2.10 at Geelong and only just went down.

If Footlights is here I’m backing him, otherwise likely staying out.

Tip: (5) Footlights- $4.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Footlights

198310

Race 7

Hanan Displays (Bm78) (1630m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Hanan Displays (Bm78) (1630m)
4:30pm (AEDT)

1. Hezashocka (18) J: Jordan Childs (61kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
9191811019781
2. Just Benjamin (5) J: Damian Lane (60kg) T: A & S Freedman
232126262026
3. Mr Brightside (6) J: Craig Williams (60kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
2.052.12.052.22.22.1
4. Nikau Spur (14) J: John Allen (59.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8.58.58.598.98.5
5. Petruchio (3) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (59.5kg) T: Archie Alexander
1414131513.414
6. Sous Les Nuages (7) J: Fred Kersley (59.5kg) T: Matthew Cumani
464141515341
7. Impecunious (13) J: Luke Currie (59kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
8. Seiners Express (9) J: Josh Richards (58.5kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
8.58.59.58.59.18.5
9. The Regiment (1) J: Jarrod Fry (58.5kg) T: J F Moloney
1011011019197101
10. Air Defence (11) J: Damien Thornton (58kg) T: S Fliedner
343434313534
11. Tyche Goddess (15) J: Daniel Moor (58kg) T: T Busuttin & N Young
12. Alcyone (4) J: Damien Oliver (57kg) T: James Cummings
5.55554.555
13. Johandough (16) J: Will Price (55kg) T: Thomas Carberry
676167717361
14. Brian Epstein (17) J: Jye Mcneil (56.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
15. Orleans Rock (2) J: Unknown (56kg) T: P A Preusker
181917161719
16. Get In The Queue (12) J: Jack Hill (55.5kg) T: M Price & M Kent Jnr
312631313026
17. Mystery Island (10) J: Declan Bates (55kg) T: L Smith
18. Eagles Crag (8) J: Damian Lane (54.5kg) T: Archie Alexander

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Frustrating market because I really want to be with (18) Eagles Crag who is unlikely to get a run as the 4th emergency. He didn’t appreciate the walking tempo first up and got keen but still ran home to get 2nd to Mr Brightside, who is in this race. He meets that horse 5kg better at the weights and will be fitter. If he makes the field he’s a huge chance of turning the tables, and the recent trial was very good.

(3) Mr Brightside is flying and just keeps winning. He can land on speed from barrier 6, did win nicely against Eagles Crag two back, and the win since at The Valley was very good in a fast race. He got a nice run there but was easily holding off Worsfold and Chief Altony who came from a long way back. Hard to beat.

(12) Alcyone next best off a nice first up win. Up in trip will suit.

I’d be waiting to see if Eagles Crag makes the field, but given it’s very unlikely, Mr Brightside is still a very backable price at $2.60. If Eagles Crag makes the field, I’d simply be having the bet on him to beat the favourite.

Tip: (3) Mr Brightside- $2.60 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Mr Brightside (if Eagles Crag comes out)

198310

Race 8

Mittys Trophy (Bm70) (1420m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Mittys Trophy (Bm70) (1420m)
5:05pm (AEDT)

1. Yulong Storm (18) J: Ms Madison Lloyd (63.5kg) T: Nathan Hobson
1112121212.212
2. He's The Real Deel (3) J: Josh Richards (62.5kg) T: Matthew Brown
2.62.62.62.62.752.6
3. Yeldarb (2) J: Ms Tahlia Hope (62.5kg) T: D J Mccarthy
676181818371
4. Saccharo (16) J: Will Price (61kg) T: Archie Alexander
1212131313.213
5. Cassius (9) J: Daniel Stackhouse (60kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
465141514141
6. Ghost Doctor (19) J: Lachlan Neindorf (60kg) T: J A Fraser
7. Tanker (17) J: Teodore Nugent (60kg) T: C Maher & D Eustace
9.51099.59.810
8. Zoist (1) J: Ms Alana Kelly (60kg) T: T & C Mcevoy
65.5565.35.5
9. Diamonds'n'stones (11) J: Fred Kersley (59.5kg) T: M, W & J Hawkes
232121262223
10. Dimaggio (4) J: Damien Thornton (59.5kg) T: K L Corstens
121212121113
11. Naval Envoy (5) J: Craig Newitt (59.5kg) T: Ms D Loos
616161614961
12. Moeen (6) J: Luke Nolen (59kg) T: P Stokes
1717181718.218
13. Excelida (13) J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg) T: Ben & J D Hayes
9.588.598.28
14. Rock In The Park (10) J: Daniel Moor (59.5kg) T: Shea Eden
616161716361
15. Pres De Toi (15) J: Damian Lane (57kg) T: P A Chow
16. Narvaez (8) J: Craig Williams (58kg) T: G Waterhouse & A Bott
17. Laffalong (14) J: Michael Dee (56kg) T: N A Blackiston
18. Plucky Pirouette (12) J: Brett Prebble (55kg) T: Caroline Jennings
19. Almighty Will (7) J: Unknown (57kg) T: Liam Howley

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 5:06pm (AEDT)

(16) Narvaez looks suited getting out to 1400m second up. He fought on well first up when outsprinted late, and 2nd up last prep at this T/D he ran very well when doing a power of work on speed. Gets map favours and will be hard to run down with a few dangers likely to get back. He needs two more scratchings to make the field.

(1) Yulong Storm is flying and ran very well behind Rainbiel at Swan Hill last start, but 1400m is a bit unknown. Drawn very wide, he’s going to be giving Narvaez a huge head start.

(2) He’s The Real Deel is also flying but I thought he had his chance behind Frankie Pinot last start and wasn’t good enough. The two wins prior were dominant and he can bounce back, he’s just very short.

(4) Saccharo can improve 2nd up off a nice effort fresh, but will also likely get a long way back.

 Backing Narvaez if he makes the field.

 

Tip: (16) Narvaez- $5.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Narvaez

Trent’s interest in the thoroughbred started out as a spark with Black Caviar, became a flame with Winx, and has now intensified into a burning obsession with Arcadia Queen. He started out throwing loose change on random trifectas at the pub, but it wasn’t long before he was watching replays and looking at sectionals, weights and markets. Trent specializes in Victorian racing and hopes his first winner as an owner is just around the corner.

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