Belmont Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 22nd

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:16pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on (3) Pale Rider here who is flying without winning. First up he settled last and was the only horse to break 11 seconds for his final furlong. He then backed up quickly the next week and was beaten less than a length, once again running home strongly. He now backs up for the third week in a row and gets up to 1400m. There was a tactics change last start that they wanted to settle more forward, but he ended up near last again. Expect him to settle forward today if he jumps with them.

(7) Champagne Dame led in the same race as Pale Rider on debut, where Pale Rider ran 4th. Should go forward and take it up here and will be hard to run down getting straight up to 1400m.

Tip: (3) Pale Rider $2.70 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Pale Rider

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 3:51pm (AEDT)

There’s no world where I’d be taking $1.45 about (8) My Fury here, who has gone down at $2.00 and $1.95 in her past two starts. Pike goes on today and she finds a much easier race back to maiden grade, but I wouldn’t be launching in at that price.

(4) Star In Time resumed in a decent race first up at Northam behind River Rubicon, who then ran well in Saturday grade on the weekend. Draws the inside and can improve.

Tip: (4) Star In Time $6.10 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 4:26pm (AEDT)

(7) Justamiddy looks extremely hard to beat here. He trialled well leading into his debut and ran well on race day behind the smart Red Fifty Three. He settled last and ran home strongly despite hanging in. He the lined up last Wednesday and was beaten a nostril by Miner Addiction, another horse which came out of that race behind Red Fifty Three. The form looks very good and we just need some good riding from barrier 8.

(8) Zadar Rock had trialled the house down leading into debut but went absolutely awfully. He did race wide throughout but his performance was too bad to be true. Drawn the rail today, I’d be surprised if he didn’t find the lead and from there he’ll be the one to run down.

Keeping (9) Hannele safe first up.

Tip: (7) Justamiddy $2.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Justamiddy

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 5:01pm (AEDT)

Not keen here.

(1) Rain God ran well first up behind Sumusu and can go on with the job here.

(2) The Republican was only just beaten last start and gets barrier 1 again today so should get his chance.

(3) Ambergate Rose won on debut last prep before failing at her second start. Resumes from a spell today and I’d keep her safe.

(4) Fish Hook had excuses first up and the stable think he’ll go well here.

Include (7) Jay Dee who can run a race first up.

Tip: (1) Rain God $2.60 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 5:36pm (AEDT)

(7) Testing Love returns to the races today with two wins and two placings from five starts. She’s just had the one trial leading into her first up run here and she’s drawn out awkwardly in barrier 8. Think she’s the horse to beat but she’ll need to be good.

(3) Standout Rose was my best of the day first up but that was before the track was cooked. You needed to be on speed and on rails all day and it was just a horror show for her the entire race. Forget she even went around. She’s good enough to win this.

(5) Jarman is in the same boat as Standout Rose, caught out wide in the quicksand. Has been running really well so the $10 looks a bit over the odds today.

Tip: (3) Standout Rose $5.50 Sportsbet

Value: (5) Jarman $10 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Standout Rose, 0.5 units WIN Jarman

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

(2) Flicka’s Chance did a good job to win first up at Northam. Not sure how good the form out of the race is but I think he finds a really winnable race here.

(8) Antique Jewel will be really popular given the Pike/Peters factor but I just don’t know how good she actually is as a horse. Some of her form is good and some of it isn’t so good. Interesting to see how she returns today.

 

Tip: (2) Flicka's Chance $3.20 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Flicka's Chance

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 6:46pm (AEDT)

Going to play two at odds here in what is a really tricky race.

(11) Jadavi draws barrier 1 and could be buried back in the field but the 3kg apprentice does get the cutaway rail to help. The horse comes off a good run behind Smashing and Ginger Flyer, and third up last prep ran super. Carries just 51kg here so can go close with luck.

Another that can go close with luck is (9) Holyoake, who actually ran home OK first up before being caught three-wide the trip last start. Third up, up in trip, and Shaun McGruddy takes the ride. He’s operating at nearly 40% for the month of September so if anyone can get it home from barrier 12, he can.

(2) Alimentaria goes from Keshaw Dhurun to Chris Parnham and should improve second up.

(1) Salon Du Cheval has the ability.

Tip: (11) Jadavi $9.00 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (9) Holyoake $10 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Jadavi, 0.5 units WIN Holyoake

Odds Last Updated: September 22, 2021, 7:26pm (AEDT)

(2) Castillo Del Lago gets the right set up today. First up he covered plenty of ground and pulled up with a slow recovery. Last start they rode him cold from the wide draw, but from barrier 2 today he’ll go forward and be hard to beat.

(3) Big Screen won the race Castillo Del Lago ran in last start and he will definitely go forward from barrier 14.

(5) Real Passion might find this a bit sharp first up 1400m with just one trial? Wide draw likely to see her well back in running.

And the biggest nutter in WA racing, (7) Yulong Earth gets a run. He’s a hard horse to trust as he finds ways to throw races away, but he actually finds a good race to resume in today from the inside draw. May well look the winner at some stage.

Tip: (7) Yulong Earth E/W $12 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet