Ascot Racing Tips: 2020 Kingston Town Classic Day

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(5) Astrape comes up the short-priced favourite here after running 2^nd in the Crystal Slipper Stakes two weeks ago, where just like her trial, she was green in the straight wanting to swish her tail under pressure. Aside from that though, she had every chance, sitting box seat throughout before being presented with a perfect gap at the top of the straight. Pike goes on today so it’s no surprise she’s the price she is, but I thought she was rock bottom odds.

(6) Flying Missile ran 3^rd in that race after leading. She was ridden by Laqdar Ramoly that day but Chris Parnham takes over today, which is a pretty significant switch. The drop back to 1000m probably suits her better than Astrape and she should be right there abouts again today.

(9) Ultimate Command is the stablemate of Flying Missile and has trialled well for Brad Parnham, who sticks with this filly having also piloted the topweight in both his trials. I thought her effort in her latest trial was quite good so she appeals at the price.

I think the value in the race is (8) Policiere at $14. She’s trialled well and had no luck whatsoever in her latest trial. She was badly held up throughout and ran up backsides on multiple occasions in the straight. She looked to have plenty to offer and was strong through the line in restricted room so it wouldn’t shock me to see her perform well here on debut.

The winner of that Policiere trial was (7) Pixie Chic who must be included if Policiere is fancied.

Open race, no need to really bet here but Ultimate Command and Policiere at double figure odds is the way I’d be leaning.

Tip: (9) Ultimate Command $6.50 Sportsbet

Value: (8) Policiere $14 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Ultimate Command, 0.5 units WIN Policiere

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

This is an open race but there’s been a huge market move for (11) Bragwell since markets opened. He was put up $6.50 and smashed into $2.70. He’s a three-year-old and comes out of the WA Guineas last weekend, where he was beaten 3L by Watch Me Dance, who is a live chance in today’s Kingston Town Classic. That form reads well and he’ll be hard to beat, but he’s short enough now in a competitive race.

(8) Mr Delegator was beaten first up at Northam but I think stepping up to 1600m today is key. Whether that Northam form is good enough is the query but we saw him beaten early last prep over similar distances before exploding when he got out to the mile. He should come across to lead or sit outside Butterlea Lad, and I think we’ll see him run a big race at each way odds today.

(3) Phoneme settled last in the run last start and was then held up until the 100m mark before surging late to be beaten 1.9L. He draws awkward again today and gives the likes of Bragwell plenty of weight, but Michael Lane has this horse flying and this is his only runner of the day. Keen to have something on.

The blowout chance in the race is (4) Baramagic at $41. He ran last first up but that was on a complete bog track and he just doesn’t go in the wet. He won second up last preparation and he draws the inside today, so back on firm ground should bring about sharp improvement.

Thought (5) Tiff Has Spoken had absolutely every chance last start and gets a negative barrier draw today so happy to oppose.

Tip: (8) Mr Delegator $5.60 Sportsbetting

Value: (3) Phoneme $8.50 Sportsbet & (4) Baramagic $41 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.75 units WIN Mr Delegator, 0.5 units WIN Phoneme, 0.25 units WIN Baramagic

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another very open race. We see Pike on the $2.80 favourite (5) Long Beach here but I was quite happy to take him on dropping back to 1100m after a plain effort over 1200m last start. He may not have been suited by the way the track played early last start, and he did run 2^nd to Elite Street prior to that, but I still thought on face value his effort was only fair in defeat last time out.

I could make a case for quite a few of these at big odds. (9) Prim And Proper can run a big race at $20. She always races well fresh, placing in three of her four starts when first up, and she’s got an identical record at the track and distance. She’s got two wins and three placings overall from six starts here at Ascot, and so long as they are able to make ground, I think she’ll go very well here.

(2) Speeding Comet is also first up and he’s placed in five of seven starts when fresh. He ran 3^rd first up last prep behind the likes of Downforce and Miss Tycoon, and he’s also got horses like Pym’s Royale, Wrinkly, Luke’s Gold and Celebrity Queen scattered through his form, which are decent references. Knockout chance at $27 and must be included in numbers.

(3) Mum’s My Hero failed badly first up but did sit three-wide the trip and the tongue tie goes on for the first time today, so maybe there was an issue. Senior rider takes over today and drawn well in barrier 4, he has the potential to improve sharply at $21.

(6) Plutocracy gets Chris Parnham on first up for Simon Miller, which is always a dangerous combination. Rarely runs a bad race, placing in all bar one of his eight starts last prep. Drawn the inside and will get the run of the race so can go close.

(8) Megazone ran 2^nd in the same race that Long Beach ran 3^rd in last start, albeit he got some neat inside runs. This stable is absolutely flying at the moment and every runner of theirs must be respected.

Plenty of chances in a very tough race.

Tip: (9) Prim And Proper $20 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Prim And Proper

Odds Last Updated: December 13, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is another nightmare of a race. We see three horses donning the cerise and white colours, with two of them being ridden by apprentices. (1) Midnight Blue has won his past two but goes from William Pike to Carleen Hefel today and draws barrier 15. That’s enough to make me stay away.

Pike instead goes on (5) Adornment who has actually placed behind Midnight Blue in her past two starts. She had her chance last start but Midnight Blue was simply too good for her, although she did dislodge a tooth pre-race, which can’t have been too comfortable. Drawn 16 so won’t have an easy time of it, but Pike may be the difference.

(6) British Bessy sat three-wide the trip last start behind Midnight Blue and did well to finish midfield. She’s got a good record over the track and distance but just seems to be struggling to find her best form.

(13) Celtic Diva is a knockout chance at $91. He’s up to a distance he can be competitive at now. It was only when he jumped from 1600m to 2200m last prep that he started to show his best and he always takes a few runs to get going.

(14) Pink And Purple is another that can be included at big odds. Ran 2^nd to the in-form Secret Pearl last start and prior to that buck jumped when a $5.50 chance over this track and distance. Three starts ago had no luck at all.

Tip: (5) Adornment $5.00 Ladbrokes

Value: (13) Celtic Diva $91 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(1) Chantrea returns today, first up off a 20-week spell following her victories in the Belmont Oaks and Belmont Classic. She’s undefeated from six career starts and looks a potential star. William Pike has ridden her in all six starts and remains in the saddle for her first up run today. Whether the 1400m is short of her best distance is the obvious (and only) query, but I suspect the market on Betfair pre-race will tell us all we need to know.

Her stablemate (10) Tycoon Storm should have probably won the Jungle Mist Classic last start, but was badly held up in the straight. She draws barrier 1 today so she’s going to need luck once again, however stepping up to 1400m is a positive for her. This is her best distance, with all six career wins coming over 1400-1500m.

(11) Ration Aly looks the value at $15. I was keen on her in the Jungle Mist but she played up pre-race and then sat three-wide without cover. From barrier 2 today she’s going to get a much better run and given she started $7.50 in the Jungle Mist, the $15 looks over the odds today.

(5) Sophie’s Song has placed in nine of her 10 starts at the track and distance so  has to be included, while (6) Serenity Bay was a huge run in defeat first up.

Happy to back Chantrea, tipping she’s the best horse in the race. Something small on Ration Aly and will save on Tycoon Storm.

Tip: (1) Chantrea $4.80 Bet365

Value: (11) Ration Aly $15 Unibet

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Chantrea, 1 unit WIN Tycoon Storm, 0.5 units WIN Ration Aly

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a proper race! Outside of the Group 1, this is by far the best race of the day.

I think today is the day we find out just how good (3) Chantorque is. She’s hardly put a foot wrong in her career, winning four of her five starts, and she just continues to get better and better with each start. She put the 1200m query to bed emphatically last start in the Placid Ark Stakes and what was most impressive about that effort was how she put them away when she got balanced up. Steps up to 1400m today which is again another box she has to tick, but she draws to do no work at all and will be right in the finish. Unfortunately we’ve missed the $4.80 for Chantorque and she’s been smashed into $3.60 this morning.

We also get to find out just how good (5) Western Empire is. He was the run of the race in the WA Guineas last weekend, coming from well back to finish 4^th, beaten 1.8L. He was an emergency for today’s G1 Kingston Town Classic, which tells you how good they think he might be. The query is dropping back to 1400m, which isn’t ideal, but he should sit right on the back of Chantorque and it will be a fascinating contest in the straight if they go together.

Then we have the fillies coming out of the Champion Fillies Stakes. (4) Snickerdoodledandy started $2.40 in that race but probably wasn’t at her very best on the bog track, but on her form prior to that, she has to be seriously respected here. She was also an emergency for the Kingston Town, and if she got a run she would have been very hard to beat. She also steps back in distance to 1400m and draws out wide in 10, but she’s got the talent.

Tip: (3) Chantorque $3.60 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Chantorque

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I think this is quite clearly the best bet of the day. (10) Celebrity Queen comes into this off a luckless 2^nd behind Elite Street in the G1 Winterbottom Stakes last weekend and she arguably would have won had she got clear running a couple of strides earlier. She has a big finish on her so I don’t foresee the 1400m being an issue, though she does still have to tick the box. William Pike replaces Chris Parnham and with even luck, she looks incredibly hard to beat.

(7) Flow is one to include at $61. He had no luck lasts tart behind Neufbosc over this track and distance and was running well prior to that.

Tip: (10) Celebrity Queen $2.15 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 4 units WIN Celebrity Queen

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE G1 KINGSTON TOWN CLASSIC!

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Absolute lottery to finish off the card. (6) Dark Mission looks the obvious starting point as favourite for Pike and Team Williams. He won first up last prep but then failed to go on with it in two subsequent starts. Her recent trial was solid and both of her first up runs in her career have been very good, so I trust that she’ll bounce back to her best today. If she does, she looks the one to beat.

(3) Skinnen Tins is an absolute blowout chance at $41. She peaked on her run and faded out of it first up in the Jungle Mist Classic but she drops heavily in class today and this stable are airborne. Have to include any runner of Ash Maley’s at the moment and this mare has won two of her four starts when second up in the past, so sharp improvement wouldn’t surprise me today.

(15) Rosebush is another to include at $41. Her run two starts ago was one of the runs of the day and she was simply outclassed in the Jungle Mist last start. Drawn well and can outrun her price.

(1) Agent Jay and (9) Beat The Bro have claims, as does (13) Cockyjoy but the 1200m is the query there.

Tip: (6) Dark Mission $2.85 Sportsbetting

Value: (3) Skinnin Tins $41 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Dark Mission, 0.25 units WIN Skinnen Tins