Pakenham Racing Tips: Saturday, December 5th

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

In an open race, (4) Martini Special looks to be a touch of value. She’s had two career starts, winning on debut at Moe before stepping up to 1200m at The Valley and just getting run down by Passionate Lass, who looks to be very talented. I liked the fight Martini Special showed there, and she’ll be strong at the end of 1000m. Ideally Willo gets outside the lead and really pours the pressure on, making it a testing 1000m.

(6) Written Miss has been well backed coming off a strong win over Zoushine on debut, who did have some decent stakes form. I thought the price was a bit of an overreaction to the support, but she’s an obvious chance and does look talented.

 (3) Nantucket took a while to wind up but managed to chase down the tearaway leaders last start. The form out of that race is a bit patchy, but his form last prep was strong.

 Tip: (4) Martini Special – $7.50 Sportsbet SCRATCHED

 Betting Strategy – 0.5 units WIN Martini Special

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Plenty of angles here. (8) Meteorite is the deserved favourite. He went under at $1.50 last start, but that form doesn’t look as bad now with the winner Grandview Avenue coming out and dominating a stakes race, beating (2) Human Nature by 4.3L. Meteorite gets Kah on for the first time, which is a positive, and really any of his last four runs go very close here. The only negative is him perhaps being a touch flat, with a heavy 10 run three back and his last effort a disappointment (according to his SP anyway).

 

Of the others, I want to forgive (1) Tony Nicconi. I made him my best value bet last start, and he finished last after leading, but he did pull up lame and with throat issues. First up he gave 6kg to Human Nature and was beaten 0.2L by that horse. His SP’s and margin last start should ensure we get a big price come jump time, and with the blinkers on first time I’m going to spec him to bounce back.

 

(5) Pariano is 3/3 first up and 4/9 at the 1000m which all looks very appealing, but it is all in weaker grade. Whenever she’s stepped up to this sort of class she’s been well beaten.

 

Tip: (8) Meteorite $2.80 Bet365

Value: (1) Tony Nicconi $26 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy – 2.5 units WIN Meteorite, 0.5 units WIN Tony Nicconi

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Gee this is tough. (4) Humble Pie is the favourite coming off a strong win at The Valley, where he was able to control the race quite comfortably. He draws wide here so I’m not sure he’ll be up on speed.

 

(6) Nerve Not Verve was given a great ride by Olly to get to the front last start, which was suited by the pattern of the night. She draws well in barrier 4.

 

Include (7) Royal Performance at big odds. The form guide doesn’t read well whatsoever, but he was given no hope last start in the Donald Cup. His run in the Horsham Cup was solid, as were his two runs over 1600m earlier in the prep. The Lindsey Smith camp is absolutely airborne (32% SR from last 50), Nolen jumps on, and he draws to do no work from barrier 2. Unless the market really likes the L Smith factor, I think you’ll get longer on the day and in a near impossible race, you’re getting nearly $10 the place.

 

(13) Doroza was a strong winner last start and was good at Flemington the start prior.

 

Tip: (7) Royal Performance – $31 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy – 0.25 units E/W Royal Performance

 

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Doesn’t get much easier, although I am keen to be against the favourite (6) Astraeus who just got every favour last start at The Valley on a leader’s highway. Drawn wide here and with much more pressure, he looks short enough.

 

There looks to be plenty of pace, which should suit a few stalking midfield. One of those can be (10) Not Mine who made sound headway last start behind Just Folk and Caffrey. Stays in the same grade, Willo sticks, and he draws better here in barrier 6.

 

(8) Capodanno is a strange horse. Both runs this prep he’s hit a big flat spot when asked for an effort but has hit the line strongly. I think he’s crying out for 2000m, but he does get an extra 100m here. Whether it’ll be enough, or if he’s actually good enough, is the question, but I think the faster they go the better he’ll be.

 

Tip: (10) Not Mine $15 Palmerbet

Danger: (8) Capodanno $8 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Not Mine, 0.5 units WIN Capodanno

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

With even luck, (8) Tavidance is going to be very hard to beat here. He’s one of mine, but the fact is he’s a very talented horse who’s had a few issues. First up at Flemington he was beaten 8.6L but honestly, you could make the case he should’ve gone close to winning. Every single which way Kah turned, the gap closed, and he was eased out of the race late. Last start in the Kilmore Cup he was slowly away, held up badly around the turn, had to go back to the inside and ran on very strongly to just miss Pancho. With even luck he would’ve won comfortably. My issue with him last prep was a good track, which he didn’t seem to enjoy, but both runs this prep have been on firm decks, and there is a bit of rain around Saturday which would only enhance his chances. With 56kg and even luck, he should be too strong here in the small field.

 

The only horse that scares me is (1) Night’s Watch because on his day, he’s a group 1 horse. Obviously, he hasn’t won for a long time and is an absolute tease, but even still, it’s only been just over a year since he ran 2^nd to Fierce Impact in a Toorak. Now with the Archie Alexander stable, who have taken all the head gear off, he comes up at double figure odds with Lane booked. He’s jumped out very well (as he always does), and he’s really just too good a horse to let go around at the price.

 

Very keen on Tavidance, and happy to save on Night’s Watch at $13 just as a bit of insurance.

 

Tip: (8) Tavidance – $2.50 Ladbrokes

Danger: (1) Night’s Watch – $13 Ladbrokes

 

Betting Strategy – 4.5 units WIN Tavidance, 0.5 units WIN Night’s Watch

 

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tricky little sprint to dissect. The favourite (5) Sirius Suspect looks a bit short in my opinion, considering nearly all his form is down the straight. His run first up behind Exhilarates and The Astrologist was very good, but away from Flemington I’m happy enough to be against.

 

(2) Tavisan is an interesting one. He was solid first up in the Doveton behind Shamino, but the big query is 1200m. He has won twice at the distance, but one was on a biased Moonee Valley track in a bm90 and the other was in a maiden as a 2yo. He’s not completely hopeless, but Sirius Suspect generally likes to roll along and has 1400m form, so I’d expect a genuinely run race.

 

I’m not sure the race was all that hot, but I’m going again with (8) Hi Stranger. I’ve no doubt he should’ve won last start if McNeil had gotten him to the outside, because when he finally did, he charged late and just missed Excess Funds. That form ties in well, as Excess Funds finished ahead of (1) William Thomas a few starts back and had excuses in the Sirius Suspect race. Hi Stranger gets Nash here which I think will really suit the horse, and he draws beautifully in barrier 4.

Also in the Hi Stranger race was (9) Enigman, and if Hi Stranger should have won, this horse should’ve run 2^nd. It wasn’t Will Price’s finest ride, getting back to last, trying to pierce a gap between runners and getting held up badly, before finally going back to the inside and letting down very strongly. His last 200m was outstanding (2^nd fastest of day) and whilst he’s not the most conventional horse, having raced in Darwin recently, if he brings that run again and gets an uninterrupted run, he’ll go close at double figures.

 

Tip: (8) Hi Stranger – $4.80 Sportsbet

Value: (9) Enigman – $11 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy- 2 units WIN Hi Stranger, 1 unit WIN Enigman

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The feature of the day is the Pakenham Cup, and it’s not an easy, or particularly vintage edition. (4) Attorney is the favourite coming off a good 4^th in the Zipping Classic behind Sound. He’s an obvious chance, but his form isn’t any different to a few others here.

 

(5) Creedence is one of those. He’s had 4 weeks between runs but did finish 4^th behind True Self in the Queen Elizabeth last start. His runs prior in the Geelong Cup and Bart Cummings were also very good, and in the latter, he was 1.1L off Sound, which ties in Attorney easily. He also gets Willo on and would just need a gap from barrier 1 to be in the finish.

 

(7) Knight’s Order looks way too short. He drops sharply in the weights but comes out of an average race behind Sin To Win, who failed badly in the Sandown Cup, and he got every possible favour in his win prior at Randwick.

 

(2) Princess Jenni won the Bendigo Cup at big odds last start, denying a very unlucky Pondus, who then ran 2^nd in the Queen Elizabeth, 2.5L ahead of Creedence. The issue for her is the weight- as a mare she has to carry 61kg, 5.5kg more than her Bendigo win. She was given a gun ride there from a good barrier too and draws wider here with 5 weeks between runs.

 

Having potted most of the market percentage, I went looking for a real roughie that could bob up, and (9) Northwest Passage could fit that bill. His run last start in the Kyneton Cup over 2000m was solid in a fast race, running on well for 4^th, beaten 4.3L. His form prior was terrible, but this horse just needed more ground and fitness, both of which he gets here. It was a long time ago, albeit only one preparation ago, but he ran 4^th in a Bart Cummings behind a prime Avilius, and 2^nd in a Geelong Cup beating home Finche. Up to 2500m will definitely suit, and with Knight’s Order and last year’s winner (6) Our Big Mike in the race, there looks genuine speed. Gets John Allen on and at a whopping $61 he’s not hopeless. He’ll be a big result at the odds, and I’ll save on Creedence who gets a bit in his favour.

 

Tip: (9) Northwest Passage – $61 TAB
Saver: (5) Creedence – $6 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy – 0.5 units E/W Northwest Passage, 0.5 units WIN Creedence

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Ah, (5) The Astrologist. I wasn’t alone in making him my best bet of the day at Ballarat, and he arguably should’ve won after getting a fair way back and having to loop the field 4 wide. He didn’t exactly flash home, but he clearly ran on the best and only missed the leader/winner Sisstar, who got every favour. He goes 1100m up to 1400m, which can sometimes be a concern, but he has had a 1200m run this prep and off his last start he may actually be looking for 1400m now. His only run at the trip was a 2^nd to Rubisaki when having to lump 59kg (5kg more than her). Just needs a bit of luck early and I think he can repay the faithful at a better price. It is D-Day though.

 

(12) Ocular just can’t seem to draw a gate recently. His run behind Outrageous at Flemington was enormous, and again last start at Ballarat he was huge, coming from a long way back to run 5^th to Titan Blinders. He draws barrier 14 here which seems to force his hand, but there does look genuine pace. If the track is playing fairer than Ballarat, he’ll go close.

 

(3) Galaxy Raider next best coming out of a good race behind Junipal and Kenya, but he hasn’t won in a while.

 

They are top two in the market, but I think the $3 and $6.5 about The Astrologist and Ocular are both backable, because they do look the clear two chances. Slight leaning to The Astrologist who is more tactically versatile, but you’re getting better than even money for the two which seems fair.

 

Tip: (5) The Astrologist – $3 TAB

Danger: (12) Ocular $6.50 Sportsbet

 

Betting Strategy – 3 units WIN The Astrologist, 1.5 units Ocular

 

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

As usual, very open mare’s race to finish. One of the main form races is a 1200m race at Ballarat, and the best runner from that race lining up here was clearly (11) Score. She was rails in run from barrier 1 and had a fairly good run but was held up a bit in the straight having to pick gaps. She ran on well behind Snapdancer for 4^th and did finish 2.4L ahead of (6) Lunakorn there.

 

Bringing some different form is (13) Metronome who was a touch unlucky last start behind Dee Keepa. Her run at this T/D three back was very good on a heavy track.

 

Coming here first up is (4) Librate. Her first up record doesn’t read well with a 2^nd from two starts, but the 2^nd was on debut, and the miss was a desperately unlucky 4^th over 1200m behind Overkill when badly held up. She draws wide which isn’t ideal, but 1400m should suit if she’s fit enough. I can’t find any comments from Mick Price about the horse, but if he’s suggesting she’s not far off then she looks a big chance at double figures.

 

Tip: (4) Librate – $11 Palmerbet

 

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Librate