Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, December 5th

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

It is a tough call for the first race on the card, but I am confident the winner comes out of the top two in the market. (1) Smart Image is the class runner of this race and holds the form to knock these away, despite having to carry 59.5kg. He has had two nice trials in preparation for this and reeled in some nice figures on debut last preparation, which gives me more confidence here being first-up. I think being back on top of the ground gives him an extra tick and is drawn to get a nice run throughout without being too far away from the leaders.

(6) Kiku is the other I will be specking. Drawn awkwardly so will probably head forward and ideally, they will be looking for a spot just off the leaders. Has 2 runs under her belt and will appreciate the 1300m.

(7) Zoumist going through the grades nicely, one for exotics.

(2) Cultural Amnesia next best.

Tip: (1) Smart Image $3.90 Bet365

Also Playing: (6) Kiku $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Smart Image, 2 units WIN Kiku

Odds Last Updated: January 3, 2021, 12:51am (AEDT)

(8) Ellsberg looks the one here as he looks to avenge his 2.8 length loss in the Spring Stakes. He missed the kick a touch and was urged up from the gate to lead which would have used a bit of petrol though like the bulldog he is, kept fighting despite being headed. There looks to be little speed here so Tim Clark should be able to get him to the front to settle him. He gets the blinkers on the near side which should keep him focused and the drop back to 1500m looks a nice move. He just has to do little work early and he will be the one they have to beat.

(2) Lando Bay is one I am going to have a speck on at big odds. Forget last start, they went back off a bad barrier and that isn’t the horse’s pattern, at an unsuitable distance. Up to 1500m is ideal and Tom Sherry’s 2kg claim will be used from the inside barrier to sit midfield. He is overs.

(7) Toscanini will be right behind the leaders and if they push too hard, he could be the one.

(3) Papal Warrior next best.

Tip: (8) Ellsberg $3.40 Bet365

Also playing: (2) Lando Bay $20.50 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Ellsberg, 0.5 unit EACH WAY Lando Bay

Odds Last Updated: February 21, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

Settled with (10) Post Free here from the Danny Williams stable. Two starts ago she broke her maiden at Gundagai before really impressing over the 1600m at Canberra, especially late in the piece. Her closing sectionals are good, and she should be well suited to the step up from the 1800m. She carries no weight with the 2kg claim of Louise Day and is drawn to sit just off the speed out of barrier two. She just needs some late luck, and you will see a nice burst of speed in the straight.

(1) Deadly Impact looks well suited here but will need luck from the barrier.

(5) Rumberella is another who will love the distance and is going for three in a row. No weight and should be in the finish from the good draw.

(3) Proven Class next best.

Tip: (10) Post Free $13.00 Bet365 E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit EACH WAY Post Free

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(6) Atlantic King is the on topper here despite his last start fifth at Kembla Grange. I am putting a line through the run as I don’t think the form on that day will hold up. The start prior over the mile was very good and I think the 1800m is an ideal step for this gelding. The draw is okay and should get into a nice spot with little speed in the race. He is also going to love being on top of the ground here as well, so expect Collett to have him peeling off them upon entering the straight.

(12) Dhakuri is a nice price and I suspect that is due to the poor draw. Won at this track and distance last start and will take the step from maiden grade to benchmark 72. Worth a speck each way.

(8) The Elanora looks best of the rest, poor draw.

(1) Prospectus next best.

Tip: (6) Atlantic King $5.50 Sportsbetting

Also playing: (12) Dhakuri $9.60 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Atlantic King, 0.5 unit EACH WAY Dhakuri

 

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Looks a day of many chances and another race where I will be playing two runners. (5) Edison is on top for me here after his impressive run at Newcastle, where he was chased down late by the impressive Through The Cracks. Drawn the widest barrier with Josh Parr aboard and will streak across to lead this race no doubt. He is fighting fit and 1400m suits, so I expect him to be hard to run down in the latter stages.

(9) Onslaught is silly odds for a horse who has previously run well in this type of grade. Nice run first-up but being from Kembla Grange, I will take it as a nice fitness run. Goes good second-up and will carry no weight. Each way at massive odds.

(10) Bigboyroy will be just off the leader and will get his chance.

(7) Enchanted Heart next best.

Tip: (5) Edison $3.50 Bet365

Also Playing: (9) Onslaught $23.00 TAB E/W

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Edison, 0.5 unit EACH WAY Onslaught

Odds Last Updated: January 25, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

This race has been decimated by scratchings but I do believe on of the better bets of the day is in this race with (6) Gone Bye. He was huge behind Atlantic King two back at Randwick after sitting outside the leader the entire way and just kept fighting towards the line. He then come out and trounced his rivals by 3 lengths at Canterbury over the 1900m (even though there was a slight bias). The form out of that race has been good with Kutayha and Nyami both winning next start. 2000m will be fine here and with Tom Sherry’s claim will bring his weight down to 57.5kg. Despite drawing barrier 7, he will head forward and lead with no fight and will be very hard to run down in the closing stages.

(13) Significance is the main rival here with a nice draw and if the leader goes amiss, he will be right there.

(4) Across Dubai is one I have plenty of time for and will be fighting to the line.

(5) Vegas Jewel next best.

Tip: (6) Gone Bye $4.00 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Gone Bye

 

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Eleven Eleven is the one I like in this race on the back of two nice trials. Although his stats don’t look good in the first-up department, he had poor recovery when finishing fifth, three preparations ago and his last two preparations he has raced in much better quality, finishing third behind Le Palmier in the Winning Rupert and fifth in the Arrowfield Sprint at Randwick on the heavy going. He will love the good track and his mate Keegan Latham is back aboard. The barrier is a touch awkward, so I am expecting them to play for luck going forward and trying to slot in around fourth. If they can do this, they will be flying late at nice odds.

(12) Stephan is massive odds and goes well when he comes to Rosehill. $51 is overs.

(9) Express Pass is up to try and claim a win, he will be thereabouts late.

(8) Pandemic next best.

Tip: (2) Eleven Eleven $8.60 Sportsbetting E/W

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Invinciano is going for three in a row after a couple of nice wins at Canterbury and Kensington. She won well at Kensington, holding off Rathvilly Miss and Acrophobic before backing up 5 days later at Canterbury. In that run, she led the entire way thrashing her opposition by 2.8 lengths. She has had a nice tick over trial since and should have plenty of residual fitness and be prominent in the run from a nice barrier. She is nice odds for the step up in grade.

(15) Turnstyle is another who will be prominent from their draw and hit the line well last start. Should be at peak fitness now.

(6) Bring The Ransom won well at Newcastle and will appreciate the extra distance.

(11) Selica next best.

Tip: (2) Invinciano $9.00 Sportsbet E/W

Betting Strategy: 0.5 unit EACH WAY Invinciano

Odds Last Updated: January 17, 2021, 9:36am (AEDT)

I think (10) Dunbrody Power can send us home a winner here and hopefully Hugh Bowman can sit a touch closer, especially with all the speed in this race. Had to come from a mile back to run 1.6 lengths in fifth at Kembla Grange though she was very good winning the start before at Kensington. She drops 2kg from her last run and if she can keep up with the field, she is a nice chance to win the get out stakes.

(1) Big Parade gets the blinkers off after being disappointing last start. Will lead from a wide barrier.

(9) Surreal Step is drawn awkwardly and will be heading forward to stalk the leaders.

(11) Above and Beyond next best.

Tip: (10) Dunbrody Power $6.10 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet