Ascot Racing Tips: 2020 Railway Stakes Day

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Looks a great opportunity for Pike to strike with his first ride back here. (3) Long Beach comes into this having run 2^nd to Elite Street last start, which looks a strong form reference, and prior to that he was a tough unlucky as a $3.70 chance behind Laverrod. Pike replaces Jade McNaught here, so that’s a big jockey change, and the step back up to 1200m should suit.

The slight query is the track – it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it favour those on speed early, given the rail goes back to the 3m position and the inside 6m of the home straight will be a fresh pad of grass.

With that in mind, I think the value in the race is (1) Carocapo, who looks well suited back to a 72+ race second up. He has a great record at this track and distance, with five wins and three placings from 13 starts. He’s only won once before when first up – that was on debut – so he tends to improve with a run under the belt. He’s got a better second up record, so with apprentice Laqdar Ramoly on board, if he can find the front from barrier 1, he could take some running down at double figures.

(5) Boomtastic next best.

Tip: (3) Long Beach $2.00 Bet365

Value: (1) Carocapo $13 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Long Beach, 0.5 units WIN Carocapo

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Crystal Slipper Stakes for the two-year-olds looks an open affair. I’m very interested in (2) Success Play at $21 though. Chris Parnham is booked for the ride for his father Neville Parnham, which catches the eye, because he jumps off both (5) Liwa and (10) Astrape to do so. Liwa is the $3.80 favourite for this race, so there would have to be a good reason for him to jump ship. He’s drawn awkwardly in 12 but at those odds, I’ll be playing.

Liwa started favourite on debut but finished 5^th, however she did pull up with heat stress and had trialled well prior to that, so she has to be given another chance.

Pike goes on Liwa’s stablemate (9) Amelia’s Picante, who has also trialled well, and the booking of the Wizard is a solid lead. He has a strike rate of about 32% for this stable.

I thought the trial of (10) Astrape was actually quite good. She was very green and swishes the tail twice when Chris Parnham gave her a gentle tap behind the saddle with the whip, but she was making nice ground through the line and I don’t think she was under maximum pressure. Again, Parnham jumps off to ride Success Play.

(11) Flying Missile trialled well over 400m and Neville Parnham keeps his apprentice Laqdar Ramoly on for raceday. Expect her to make use of barrier 1.

Open race but I’ll be playing Success Play at the odds, and the $10 about Astrape is also quite enticing.

Tip: (2) Success Play E/W $21/$5.50 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Success Play, 0.5 units WIN Amelia’s Picante, 0.5 units WIN Astrape

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Another strong chance for Pike here with (4) Midnight Blue, who comes off a last-start win over 1800m. Up to 2200m third up today, a distance he ran 2^nd over last prep in the Melvista Stakes. Pike replaces apprentice Laqdar Ramoly and with even luck from barrier 3, they look the obvious choice.

The horse that beat Midnight Blue in the Melvista Stakes in March was (3) Red Hot Tip. He was ridden negatively from a wide gate last start, but he’s much better when being allowed to roll along in front. Expect them to go back to those tactics here, which should bring about sharp improvement. I’d be having something on him at double figure odds, but he has the bar plates on for the first time, so I’ll leave him alone.

(10) Great Waters bolted in over 1800m in a Class 3 last start. He can mix his form a bit but if he reproduces his effort from last start, he will give this a good shake. He won over a similar trip three starts ago before dropping back down to 1800m, so the distance should be no issue and with a good run from barrier 2, he looks a live chance at $14.

(6) Come Right Back and (7) Adornment next best.

Tip: (4) Midnight Blue $2.80 TopSport

Value: (10) Great Waters $14 TopSport

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Midnight Blue, 0.5 units WIN Great Waters

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Only a small field here for the Placid Ark Stakes but it’s a decent little race.

(4) Chantorque is a horse I’ve got plenty of time for. She’s won three of her four career starts, including both starts this preparation. She got the better of (1) Charleton Eddie last start, despite carrying just 1.5kg less than him when rated 12 points less. She meets him even better at the weights today, so I would think she’s got him covered.

Her only query is the step up to 1200m for the first time. I actually think they went too slow on Eddie last start, which made it a dash home from the 400m and Chantorque had the better sprint. If Eddie rolls along in front today, maybe Chantorque could be suspect at a strong 1200m. However, I don’t think that will be the case and with the good draw, I’m sticking with her to win again.

(2) Acromantula won his debut over 1000m on a Soft 7 deck. He led all the way on that occasion, but will he be able to lead today? I doubt it with Charleton Eddie drawn inside him. He of course has more scope to improve and he’s from a strong stable, so he has to be respected.

(3) Queen Brown has been racing in stronger races, lining up in the likes of the 3YO Classic, Belgravia Stakes and Burgess Queen Stakes this prep. She has been outclassed in those but might find this a shade easier. She drops back from 1400m to 1200m and back onto a firmer deck should suit her.

Tip: (4) Chantorque $3.20 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Chantorque

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(12) Western Empire is an emergency for the WA Guineas later in the day, but with him unlikely to gain a run, he’s also entered to run here. He was well beaten on debut at Northam, but the step up in distance brought about sharp improvement last start, running 2^nd in the Fairetha Stakes. He stays at the 1400m today and Pike goes on from a middle draw. He looks the one to beat.

With Western Empire now scratched, (8) Tiff Has Spoken looks the horse to beat. He resumed with a 2^nd placing to Point Taken over this track and distance. He won second up last preparation and draws well in barrier 3 today. Paul Harvey sticks and if there’s any chinks in the favourite’s armour, Tiff looks very capable of winning.

One of the pacesetters in this race could be (2) Sophie’s Song, who has placed in eight of nine starts at the track and distance. If the track is playing to those on speed, she will be hard to run down with Brad Parnham replacing apprentice Chloe Azzopardi.

(7) Ocean’s Fifteen has been running well without much luck and can go close at each way odds. He was 2.4L behind Tiff Has Spoken last start but sat four-wide the trip. His form prior behind the likes of Dom To Shoot looks sound.

Tip: (8) Tiff Has Spoken $3.20 Bet365

Value: (7) Ocean’s Fifteen $9.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Tiff Has Spoken, 0.5 units WIN Ocean’s Fifteen

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

This is a super, super competitive WA Guineas.

I think there’s one at monster odds here in (7) Phanta for Lucy and Justin Warwick. He’s a $26 chance but I think that’s well over the odds. He won on debut at Belmont, defeating (2) Dom To Shoot, who is close enough to favourite here. Granted, Dom To Shoot gets a decent weight swing, but that shouldn’t mean Phanta is five times his price. Phanta then had nine weeks off the track before returning in the Fairetha Stakes. He led and was only run down to be beaten 0.35L. Last year’s Guineas winner War Saint also led and ran 4^th in the Fairetha Stakes before coming out and winning the Guineas, so if Phanta has improved from that last run, which there’s every chance he has, he’s going to give a great sight at big odds.

Dom To Shoot started $2.50 in the Fairetha Stakes and ran home in the fastest final sectionals. They crawled in that race and it was a sit-sprint, so he had little chance to pick them up after settling 10^th in the run. His prior form was good and he’s certainly capable of atoning here.

(1) Gemma’s Son is much better suited back to his own age group after finishing 2L off Kay Cee in the Lee-Steere Stakes last start. Prior to that, he carried 59kg in the Belgravia and was only beaten a touch over a length. Back to set weights today, he looks a big chance.

(11) Watch Me Dance won the WA Champion Fillies Stakes last weekend on the bog track and backs up into this week’s Guineas. Arcadia Queen did that with success in 2018, but the query has to be the quick backup after that heavy surface seven days ago.

(14) Brave Angel was the run of the race in the WA Champion Fillies, storming home from worse than midfield to be beaten about a neck. Again, the query is how she goes on the quick backup after that heavy track last week, but a repeat of that run would see her very competitive today.

First emergency (17) Western Empire gained a run this morning after the stable scratched his stablemate. His run last start was super and he has to be rated very highly now he’s in the field.

Tough race but happy to take $26 for Phanta!

Tip: (7) Phanta $26/$6.00 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Phanta

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The Jungle Mist Classic looks a great race for (1) Flower Of War, who is thrown in at the weights with just 57.5kg. She’s rated 97, with the next highest rated horse being 87. There is only a 2.5kg spread in the weights so under the conditions, Flower Of War looks very well placed. She’s got an incredible record at the track and distance, with four wins and a 2^nd from five starts. Chris Parnham takes over the ride, back up to 1200m obviously suits and if she finds the front from barrier 8, she’s going to eb awfully hard to beat.

(9) Ration Aly looks the danger and the value at $8.00. She’s won four of her five career starts, with her only defeat coming on debut, where she stormed home from last at 50/1. She’s had a short let up after her last run and comes into this fresh. She was backed off the map first up last prep over this distance and got the job done with a booming finish, and although this is a decent field, I think she’s a very good mare. Happy to be on her at the price.

(8) Tycoon Storm is another good mare with an outstanding record, notching up six wins from 10 starts. Ration Aly actually beat her three starts back, albeit Tycoon Storm was a bit unlucky that day, and they started a very similar price. I don’t think Ration Aly should be $8.00 when Tycoon Storm is $4.60. Notably, Brad Parnham rode Flower Of War last start but elects to stay with Tycoon Storm today.

The two at blowout odds to include in your numbers are (12) Solid Azza and (10) Rosebush, who was one of the runs of the day in defeat last start.

Tip: (1) Flower Of War $3.10 TopSport

Value: (9) Ration Aly $8.00 TopSport

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Flower Of War, 1 unit WIN Ration Aly

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE RUNNER-BY-RUNNER PREVIEW OF THE G1 RAILWAY STAKES!

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The final race of the day is a bit of a lottery, but there’s a few at decent odds here.

(6) Luke’s Gold has a big finish on him when he’s at his best, and he won here two starts ago despite sitting wide throughout. He can mix his form, but I think his run last weekend was actually decent on the soft track, because he clearly does his best racing on firm ground. His effort to finish 4^th was good. He’s got a good record at the track and distance and so long as the track out wide isn’t completely cooked, he’s a chance in this at big odds.

(8) Pym’s Royale is an emergency in the Railway, so you’d think he would be competitive here. He has the pads off his feet for the first time, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see sharp improvement.

(12) Festival Miss was blocked the entire straight first up from a spell. Pike goes on today and with 53kg she looks well placed to have an impact.

(9) Laverrod had Festival Miss’s measure when they met last prep. He is the sole four-year-old in the field this year, and four-year-olds have a great record, winning four of the past six editions of this race. He drops back from group 2 company, and prior to last start he won, beating Celebrity Queen, who then came out and own her next start. He should go close, but he does get Peter Knuckey replacing Pat Carbery who has ridden Laverrod in every single career start.

(13) Serenity Bay has a good record first up, while (14) Point Taken isn’t hopeless at big odds.

Tip: (6) Luke’s Gold $19 Palmerbet

Also backing: (8) Pym’s Royale $8.50 Unibet

Betting strategy: 0.25 units WIN Luke’s Gold, 0.25 units WIN Pym’s Royale