Ballarat Racing Tips: Saturday, November 21st

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) The Gauch looks hard to beat here. He’s had an outstanding prep, with 2 wins and 2 seconds from 4 starts. He couldn’t quite hold out Ocular last start but ran very well for 2nd, and that horse was huge at Flemington at its next start. This is an easier race in my opinion, and he’ll be right up on speed from barrier 2, likely leader’s back. Will just need an ounce of luck and he should be too strong.

(3) Rock Prophet looks the danger, coming off a desperately unlucky run last start behind Hi Stranger, where he should’ve been in the finish. His run prior in the Bobbie Lewis was good, but perhaps a bit flattered by how slow they went. He has a habit of missing the start, and I can’t see a scenario where he isn’t at the tail of the field, giving The Gauch 4-5 lengths head start on a fast deck.

(9) Tan Tat Harmony and (5) Hidden Legend are both rough hopes, but I’m happy to stick with the inform horse who will be on speed.

Tip: (2) The Gauch $2.9 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN The Gauch

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very open, and very uninspiring contest over 2600m. One of the main form references is a 2500m race at The Valley. (12) Wahine Toa finished 2nd behind an all the way winner and was strong. No questions on him staying the trip but he looks a touch short at $4.

Vividredsky looked overs, but has been scratched this morning, leaving me with one at $13 in the form of (2) Yulong Rising who pulled up lame behind Sin To Win last start. His run prior at Caulfield was strong, and if he’s bounced out of that run, he brings the better form. No question marks on him staying the trip either- he’s run 2nd to Ablaze over 3000m and they’ve notified of their intention to go forward from an outside barrier.

Tip: (2) Yulong Rising $13 Bet365

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Yulong Rising

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very keen to see (1) Shelby Cobra again. I’m a huge fan of this horse- he should’ve won on debut at The Valley when having no luck, before atoning with a dominant win on heavy ground at Sale. The form out of that maiden has been solid too, with Singleton Park bolting in at Mornington Wednesday. It was his last run at Flemington however that really stamped Shelby Cobra as a talent. I loved his win over Tommy Gold, Deep Speed and Allibor, who won the Sandown Guineas at his next start. He ambled up to them and put them away like a good horse, and with the exception of perhaps one danger, that was a much stronger race. He maps beautifully, Zahra jumps back on, he’s got race experience, and I fully expect him to be winning.

The only danger in my opinion, Reciprocation, has been scratched, meaning Shelby Cobra is as short as $1.45. I would’ve been happy to launch at the $1.80, but at $1.45 even with the danger out I’d be hoping for a drift back out on race day. If we see $1.70, he’s a max bet job.

Tip: (1) Shelby Cobra $1.45 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- No bet

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Strange race the Clockwise Classic, going the Sydney way around a tight turning track. (9) Jayanthi missed the start in her jumpout but weaved her way through the field to win running away. It’s not an ideal thing to do, but if she does jump with the field, she’ll be very hard to hold out late.

(4) Ranveer looked good and professional winning a jumpout here, as did (3) Rambeau who actually beat (6) Butter Blonde, who won on debut and ran 3rd behind Dosh last start.

(2) Prince Amongst Men didn’t look to handle the heavy track on debut behind Butter Blonde, but clearly has some talent and won a jumpout here by 3 lengths. He draws wide which probably isn’t ideal around this circuit, but at $20 he’s not hopeless.

Tip: (9) Jayanthi $5.5 Sportsbet

Value: (2) Prince Amongst Men $20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Jayanthi, 0.25 units WIN Prince Amongst Men

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tough race, mainly because there are holes in so many runners. The only one that doesn’t have an obvious knock is (6) Hi Stranger, who is a consistent galloper, having placed at 50% of his runs. We were on him first up at Bendigo over 1100m and I thought it was a strong win with 61.5kg. His last 400m was only 0.01 seconds off the day’s fastest, and he beat a handy horse there in Overkill. McNeil jumps back on which is no knock, and his 3yo sprinting form was very strong in my opinion. 2nd up off 11 weeks last prep he ran 2nd to Roccabascerana, beating home the likes of The Astrologist, Hilo and Lombardo.

(7) Excess Funds looks the danger. He was okay last start down the straight behind Exhilarates and The Astrologist and was solid but did have every favour two back.

(4) Mystyko isn’t hopeless. He was a bit plain first up, but he isn’t an 1000m horse. He’s better suited here, but I don’t love the 3kg claimer on and he hasn’t won in a while.

(2) All Too Royal would probably win this on his best form, but he looks in the wilderness. He had a tough run first up but was still beaten a fair way and his two runs last prep were awful. He’s also generally better fresh and they’ve gone with a 3kg claimer too. Could easily win but until he really shows some form, I’m happy to be against.

Tip: (6) Hi Stranger $3.8 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 1.5 units WIN Hi Stranger

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

You could spend hours on this race and still have absolutely no idea. 16 mares over 1200m at $5 the field, with a speed map that is very much up in the air. I’ve found one at odds on top in the form of (14) Excelida at $21. She ran okay first up over 1300m and fitness would’ve played a big part in that when finishing 8th behind Mrs Beckham. She’s never run a place from 4 attempts when first up but is 2 from 2 when second up. Like most of these, her best is probably good enough, but she can often find one or two better. Some of her form around Wild Vixen and Xilong is certainly good enough, and Olly sticks here for a very much in form Lindsay Park. She draws very wide, which is an obvious knock, but there isn’t much speed here and she has raced on pace before, so perhaps he tries to find a spot on speed. If that happens, I think she’ll give a real sight.

(13) Lunakorn is the favourite and does look ready to win, I just wonder how far she’ll get back in a big field. With the right run she’s the hardest to beat.

(15) Merited looks one of the pace influences, drawn barrier 3 first up. She has a very strong 4th against some good 3yo males last prep, as well as a 3rd in the Creswick behind Front Page. She’s 2 from 2 on good tracks and probably finds the front here which could be key. Also at double figures, she looks an easy bet to have.

(7) Chassis is an obvious hope but is another that draws wide. She wouldn’t surprise at all despite the 12 week let up.

Tip: (14) Excelida $21 TAB

Danger: (15) Merited $10 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy- 0.5 units WIN Excelida, 0.5 units WIN Merited

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

The favourite looks very hard to beat here. I speak of (3) Right You Are, who ran very well first up at 1600m last start in a stronger race. Mick Price said just before the race that the horse couldn’t win and wasn’t fit enough, but he was very nearly wrong. He did take a while to get going, but his final 200m was lengths faster than the next best when finishing 3rd by 0.3 lengths. The form out of that race is strong, with Power Scheme running a very narrow 2nd to So Si Bon at his next start. My only slight knock on Right You Are is staying at 1600m, but really, he should be too classy here. At around $2.90, he looks one of the better bets of the day.

Interestingly, Olly has jumped off Right You Are to stick with (6) Think ‘n’ Fly who was a good winner last start. He’s a chance and is 4 from 5 at the 1600m, although I would’ve thought he’d step up in trip after last start.

(16) Serengeti is flying but this is a big step up, whilst (1) Heavenly Emperor isn’t hopeless at big odds coming off a wide run first up. He’s got a good record 2nd up and can go forward from a middle barrier. At $34 you could do worse than have something on.

Tip: (3) Right You Are $2.9 Palmerbet

Value: (1) Heavenly Emperor $34 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy- 3 units WIN Right You Are, 0.25 units E/W Heavenly Emperor

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very strong edition of the Ballarat Cup. We’ve got multiple group one winners at the top of the weights and plenty of horses in scintillating form, none more so than (4) Junipal. He was great last week over 1500m in the Sandown Stakes, getting the better of Kenya and Buffalo River. He’d prefer a softer track, but my main query with him is 2000m, and potentially a strongly run one. He hasn’t been stretched out to 2000m for well over a year, and even a run this time last year over 1800m suggested he doesn’t really stay. He’s a much improved horse, but you can be as good a horse as you like- if you don’t run the distance you won’t win.

The one I’ve found on top is (5) Al Galayel. This horse was in excellent form prior to last start in the Coongy, where he was ridden upside down on pace, fading late and subsequently pulling up lame. He easily accounted for (9) Plein Ciel in the JRA Cup before that, smashing Mirage Dancer and Miami Bound who have since won the Metropolitan and MV Gold Cup respectively. Before that, Al Galayel beat Caulfield Cup favourite Orderofthegarter in a strong race at Caulfield. He’s 5 weeks between runs but that isn’t an issue for Maher/Eustace, and the horse has won off 4 weeks twice already this prep. I don’t mind the map for him- drawn barrier 10 he should be able to blend into the race at the right time, and a dry track over a fast 2000m is his perfect set up.

(10) Affair To Remember just knocked off (20) Paradee last start in the Matriarch. Affair To Remember will always need luck coming from near last, and this is a stronger race against some WFA males. I doubt Paradee gets a run, but if she does, she can turn the tables with a 2kg swing and the 2000m run under her belt.

(3) Kings Will Dream is the best horse in the race, but I’m not sure how well he’s going. The Makybe Diva run was a forgive when hampered by Gatting breaking down, but his run in the Turnbull was just fair despite only being beaten by 2.5 lengths, only just beating home Django Freeman and Vow And Declare.

Tip: (5) Al Galayel $15 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy- 1 unit WIN Al Galayel

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Very keen on (3) The Astrologist here, who just looks to have a few lengths on these. He bolted in first up with 62.5kg, beating home Fundraiser by nearly 3L and Triton Rising by nearly 4.5L. Both came out and won their next start impressively, so the form already looks strong. The Astrologist then went to Flemington, started favourite and was only run down late by Exhilarates who got last crack at him. He gets in very well with 59kg here and is very adaptable in his racing pattern. The 1100m chute start at Ballarat is similar to Caulfield, meaning wide draws are generally no disadvantage. Looks very, very hard to beat and anything above $2 looks a bet.

(1) Hawker Hurricane is a good horse and took on some strong races last prep but hasn’t won since his 2yo days on this day in the Clockwise Classic and I’m happy to risk first up.

(4) Whipcracker Way is a handy horse, but this is much tougher. He’s also accepted Friday night, but I hope he’s here so we get a better price about the favourite.

(2) Can’t Be Done will improve 2nd up after pulling up lame first up.

Tip: (3) The Astrologist $2.3 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy- 4 units WIN The Astrologist

Odds Last Updated: November 22, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Tricky one to finish. (11) Ocular was huge last start at Flemington, coming from a long way back to finish 2nd to Outrageous. The problem is, he’s drawn the carpark again and will be giving them a big head start. He can still win because he’s easily good enough, but you’d want to be sure they’re making substantial ground before backing him.

(7) Yao Dash is an interesting one. He had a forgetful prep last time in, striking two heavy tracks which he just doesn’t go on. He trialled very well leading into his first up run down the straight and I thought he ran well for 4th. He drew inside and was the closest to the fence for most of the race which wasn’t ideal. I’m also convinced he didn’t handle the straight particularly well- he was chasing a long way out and off the bit early, looking a bit lost. Once he saw the winning post, he did put his head down and finish off well, running the 2nd fastest last 200m of the race behind Exhilarates. There’s no doubting his talent- he beat Funstar at his 2nd ever start and was only beaten 1.5L in 4th in an elite Golden Rose behind Bivouac. Drawn barrier 7 here, I suspect he follows (5) Titan Blinders across and either sits outside the lead or lobs into the 1-1. Back around a bend from that position, he’ll be very hard to beat.

(19) The Difference needs one more to come out but was a good run in the Ocular race. He draws wide again too but could perhaps go forward. Ocular’s run was marginally better, but it’ll all depend on where they settle.

Tip: (7) Yao Dash $4.4 Palmerbet

Betting Strategy- 2.5 units WIN Yao Dash