Ascot Racing Tips: 2020 Winterbottom Stakes Day

Odds Last Updated: December 6, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

We’ve seen a big market move on (1) Sassy Trader in early markets here, being crunched into $2.45 after opening $4.20. That’s not the first plunge from this stable in recent weeks though, with both Charleton Eddie and Laverrod both being supported in similar fashion, but neither have gone on to win.

I’m going to take on Sassy Trader here, with (2) Madam Torio the way I’ll go first up with Chris Parnham booked to ride. She bolted in by 5.7L first up last preparation at Belmont. It was only a 2YO No-Metro-Win race but she was utterly dominant after finding the lead early. I’m sure they’ll attempt to lead here but she will want to be fast away, as there is no shortage of speed in the race.

(7) Toscana comes to town after impressing in two starts at Mount Barker and Albany. I was very keen on her last start when she cruised home but this is a big step up in grade. She also ran a slower time last start than the other 1100m race on the same day.

(5) Januara is the blowout chance here, rated $26 by the market. She was beaten first up at Northam, but she was ridden by an apprentice that day and senior rider Ryan Hill takes over today. She was well beaten first up last prep but came out and won second up, where she led. No surprise to see them be more aggressive today and at the odds I could include her.

Tip: (2) Madam Torio $3.60 Ladbrokes

Value: (5) Januara $26 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Madam Torio, 0.25 units WIN Januara

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Not very keen to bet here as nothing really stands out, but I’ll definitely be taking on (10) The Fugazi. I thought his first up run was sound, and he was potentially a bit out of his grade last start, but he gets back onto a firm deck today and I query whether he’s at his absolute best after the long break.

(2) True Attraction lands on top by default. I was keen on his chances last start but he was pretty disappointing, it must be said. There’s also a little query at him staying at 1400m. I’m going to forgive him for last start as it rained heavily on the day and the track ended up a bog. Prior to that, he ran 2^nd to Inspirational Girl and then flew home second up when he drew the carpark. Better drawn today, Pike goes on and if he brings his best, he’ll win.

(7) Rebel Knight keeps turning up and running well. He just keeps finding a couple too good for him. The big query today is the bar plate going on his back feet for the first time.

(3) Bad Wolf is the blowout.

Tip: (2) True Attraction $3.20 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 14, 2021, 11:46pm (AEDT)

Pretty keen on the chances of (5) Island Missile here. His first two runs in WA were outstanding – he was outbobbed first up and then sat three-wide the trip from barrier 2 second up, beaten 0.6L by Schoolhouse Rock. They changed tactics with him last start, taking him back to last from the wide gate, and he exploded in the straight to score well. That was midweek grade and he steps up to Saturday grade now, but he draws well and he gets back onto a firmer deck, which really suits him even better. This looks a winnable race so with $4.80 on offer, I’m keen to back him.

Two of Neville Parnham’s horses have been very well supported in early betting. (7) Beffunjar draws barrier 1 and drops to 54kg with the claim for Laqdar Ramoly. He’ll get a good run and has two wins from three starts at the track and distance. His stablemate (13) Wakan Tanka is one of the more intriguing horses in the state. They just keep truckloading this horse in betting, and up until last start, he had showed absolutely nothing. But last start he got things perfectly in his favour, sitting outside the leader on a day which heavily suited frontrunners, and he bounded away to score by 2.8L having been backed from $26 into $5.00. Hard to know what he does today!

The other Parnham horse, (12) Captain Burglar gets Chris Parnham on board, dropping down in grade having run 10^th in the Fairetha Stakes. He draws well and run give this a shake.

I think there’s three blowout chances in the race: (3) Zackariah Beau, (6) Yadreamin’ and (10) Dalswinton. Zackariah Beau tends to improve third up, Yadreamin’ comes out of a good form race and ran well at this stage last prep, and Dalswinton hasn’t had much luck in his first two starts in WA. Stable rider takes over from the apprentices today.

Tip: (5) Island Missile $4.80 TAB

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Island Missile

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

 

Highly competitive race here. (7) Wild Fusion won first up, his first win in nine attempts at this track. There was money to suggest he would go well that day and it was spot on. Chris Parnham rode him and sticks with him today, and even though he has a slightly more awkward barrier draw, I think he can run very well again. The $8.50 looks slightly over the odds.

(9) Mood Goddess ran 4^th in that same race, and I thought her run was terrific. She was slow away, settled last and then took inside runs in the straight. She hit the line very well to be beaten 1.5L. Gets a small weight swing today and the blinkers go back on second up, so I’m expecting her to go very close and there is $8.00 currently available.

The horse that ran Wild Fusion to a nose in that race was (6) Glamour Packed, who was my tip that day. He got a lovely run from barrier 3 and had absolutely every chance. Gets a 1kg swing in the weights on Wild Fusion but I’m not sure he should be $6.00 with Wild Fusion and Mood Goddess $8.00 plus.

The horse that genuinely spooks me is (5) Classy Macro. This is the most mysterious horse in Western Australia! He runs one of two ways; he either wins (or goes close) or runs last (or close to last). There’s no in between with him. He was beaten 13.7L, 6L, 9.7L and 5.2L in his first four starts, then came out and ran 2^nd, and then broke his maiden by 6L. After that he ran last, beaten 13L. First up this prep, he ran last beaten 20L, and then came out second up and won easily. Predicting how he runs is truly a guessing game. If he runs to his best, he will probably win this, but he could very well run last.

Tip: (7) Wild Fusion $8.50 Bet365

Also backing: (9) Mood Goddess $8.00 Betfair

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Wild Fusion, 1 unit WIN Mood Goddess

 

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

No surprise to see a big market move early for (6) Resortman, who was ridden negatively first up and was never in the race. They’ll definitely change tactics and roll forward today, which should bring about significant improvement. The other key is the step up to 1200m. He’s the best horse in the race so if he can get across without too much trouble, I expect him to win.

(1) Mr Kunafa is a good horse and he resumes from a spell over 1200m today. This is likely short of his best distance and his trials have been uninspiring, so with those things in mind and an awkward draw, I’ll watch him today to see how he is through the line.

(4) Puli gets blinkers on for the first time today and will be keen to get across from barrier 11. He’s failed in two starts at Ascot and he probably prefers a bit of cut in the ground.

(7) Platinum Bullet is a talented mare and she trialled very well. Her first up run last prep was outstanding after settling last and from barrier 13 first up, she might be back there again. Query on this stable’s form at the moment though.

Pike goes on (5) Sweet Dreamin’ for a trainer he doesn’t ride for normally, so that catches the eye.

(12) Denim Pack can run a cheeky race at $18. He’s won two of his past four and has had excuses in the two he failed in. Two starts ago he struck an unsuitable track and last start he was wide throughout.

Tip: (6) Resortman $2.80 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Resortman

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

(1) Carocapo was actually in the field for the G1 Winterbottom Stakes but they’ve scratched him from that race and chosen the easier option here. He won last weekend in slightly easier grade over this track and distance, with the same barrier draw, the same jockey and a similar weight. He should find the front again from the inside gate and he’ll prove very hard to run down.

(7) Luke’s Gold is the value in the race for mine. He also raced last weekend and they elected to lead on him, which he’s literally never done before in his career. Expect them to ride him much quieter today and allow him to try and finish off. His best distance might be 1400m so this distance might test him, but I think he’s a bet at double figure odds.

(10) Fred Dag has plenty of talent but has also had his fair share of problems. His run first up last prep was enormous, where he split Red Can Man and Pym’s Royale. Red Can Man ran 4^th in last weekend’s Railway Stakes, so that form is obviously outstanding. My query with him is he’s trialled only once this prep leading into his first up run, so whether he’s sharp enough at 1200m fresh is the question.

(5) Dig Deep was brave last start and looks a good chance third up from a spell.

Tip: (1) Carocapo $4.00 Bet365

Value: (7) Luke’s Gold $13 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Carocapo, 0.5 units WIN Luke’s Gold

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The Regional Championship Final is a complete lottery, but there is a stack of value so we’ll try and snag something at odds. The top four of last year’s edition of this race all came from the Kalgoorlie and Albany qualifiers, so that’s where I’m focusing my attention.

(8) Magic Opus comes out of the Albany heat, where he ran 2^nd. He was beaten about a length first up and then 0.25L last start. He’s got a good third up record with two wins and two placings from five starts. He should roll forward and give a sight at $34.

(15) The Beach ran a huge race in the Kalgoorlie qualifier. She led and copped a stack of pressure throughout, but still fought on bravely to run 3^rd. Kershaw Dhurun has ridden her in her past two starts but Jade McNaught jumps aboard today. She’ll be right up there from barrier 1 and should go well.

(1) Manhattan Money won the Kalgoorlie qualifier and carries 62kg today, but that’s also what last year’s winner Mr Genoa did. He’s drawn a bit tricky in barrier 11 though so Brad Rawiller will have his work cut out. Since moving to Kal, the horse has had six wins and two 2nds from 10 starts.

(3) Pure Magnus ran a very narrow 2^nd to Manhattan Money last start and gets a little weight swing in his favour today. Mitchell Pateman actually chose to ride Pure Magnus over Manhattan Money last start and sticks with him today, so it’s no surprise to see him backed into $11 since opening around $22.

The blowout could be (10) Dalgaranga at $51.

I’ll be on Pure Magnus, The Beach and Magic Opus.

Tip: (15) Pure Magnus $11 Bet365

Value: (8) Magic Opus $34 Bet365 & (15) The Beach $15 Bet365

Betting strategy: 0.5 units WIN Pure Magnus, 0.25 units WIN The Beach, 0.25 units WIN Magic Opus

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

The staying race of the day here and (10) Royal Command goes on to for Pike, Durrant and Peters. The key today being William Pike back on board, who has ridden him to all six career victories. Third up today after a long break, well-drawn in barrier 3, he looks hard to beat.

I think the value is (4) Double Digit. He won two in a row over 2200m here leading into last start, but he just didn’t handle the heavy track at all. Chris Parnham jumps back on today – he rode him to both of those recent victories – and back onto a firmer track should help. This stable is flying so at $12.50 on Betfair, he’s worth having something on.

I expect sharp improvement from (1) Spiritual Warrior today. He was never a chance first up in the Railway Stakes over a trip well short of his best, but that would have been to just blow out the cobwebs. Lucy Warwick got off and said he’s on track for the Perth Cup. He won second up last prep when he got up to this sort of distance, so expect him to improve sharply.

(12) Utgard Loki ran well behind Too Close The Sun last start and can run well again.

Tip: (10) Royal Command $2.60 Palmerbet

Value: (4) Double Digit $12.50 Betfair

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Royal Command, 0.5 units WIN Double Digit

Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

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Odds Last Updated: November 29, 2020, 12:53am (AEDT)

Two horses I’ll be backing in the last, in what looks a competitive affair. (14) Tollman won last start and I think he can win again. The form out of that last win has been very good – Naughty By Nature and Red Publisher have both come out and won, while Paddy’s Shadow ran 2^nd. He’s got a good record at the track and distance, and overall he’s got five top-two finishes from six starts at 1600m. Drawn well and should go close again.

I’m convinced (1) Harry Thomas can run a big race today. It’s the first time this prep he’s found a suitable race. Last start he ran 4^th in Listed company behind Too Close The Sun on a bog track, which he isn’t suited to; two starts ago he settled back in the field on a day when the rail was red-hot; three starts back he sat three-wide the trip behind Inspirational Girl, and prior to that he was beaten 1.6L by Money Matters on a wet track. Today, he drops into a rating 78+ race, he gets a firm track, the 3kg claim brings him down to a winnable weight, and he should be able to find the lead in a race lacking any sort of tempo. I really think if he can get the rail in front he’ll be in this for a long way at $16.

(2) Money Maher should be ready third up off a long spell. He was brave last weekend sitting three-wide the trip, and he also sat wide without cover first up behind Inspirational Girl.

Tip: (14) Tollman $5.00 Bet365

Value: (1) Harry Thomas $16 Bet365

Betting strategy: 1.5 unit WIN Tollman, 0.5 units WIN Harry Thomas