Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, December 18th

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 4:07pm (AEDT)

(1) Revitup couldn’t have been more impressive last start, destroying her rivals by 4.5L. She’s undefeated at the track and distance after being run down very late over 1100m two starts back. Goes up in weight with Brad Parnham back on replacing apprentice Holly Watson, but they’ll have to be pretty good to beat her. Only little concern is this is now her fourth run of her first racing campaign.

(2) Does He Know returns as a gelding on the back of a winning trial. Not without hope here.

(11) Vonsnip debuts and comes off a winning trial where she beat Saintorio and Swim Through. Swim Through won on debut midweek to give that form a little boost.

(6) Costume Party finished off well last start, while (3) Saintorio has talent but is likely to need further.

Tip: (1) Revitup $1.70 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 4:47pm (AEDT)

Competitive race with plenty of speed.

Things might set up well for the old boy (10) Red Publisher here and he can run a nice race at each way odds. He’s had real excuses in recent starts and he gets in on the minimum off a rating of 72. He ran in a similar race last week and never saw daylight the length of the straight. He’ll sit off the tempo and be hitting the line late.

(9) Beat The Bro bolted in in the Pinjarra Grandstand Cup a fortnight ago and he should get a similar run to what he had that day. The form out of that race is very questionable but this race sets up well.

(7) Big Screen just runs well all the time. He’s had seven starts this prep for six top-two finishes. Leads from the inside gate and will take beating.

(5) Big Bada Boom was hard in the market last start but bombed the start and basically took no part. Form prior was good.

(3) Friaresque is ready third up now back in grade, while (2) Lorentinio and (8) Em Tee Aye have claims but tough speed maps.

Tip: (10) Red Publisher $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 5:32pm (AEDT)

The day’s feature is the Group 2 Ted Van Heemst Stakes, which is one of the key lead ups to the Perth Cup.

(1) Regal Power has a mortgage on the race on the back of his victory in the G1 Kingston Town Classic. There’s just nothing in the same class as him here and at weight-for-age, he looks just about unbeatable.

(5) Marocchino found it hard chasing the speed in the Towton Cup but if he can tuck in behind Juicing Carrots here, he’ll run a much better race.

Not much else to write about here.

Tip: (1) Regal Power $1.35 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 6:07pm (AEDT)

The gate makes things tricky but (10) The Velvet Queen might just be better than these. She’s been terrific in two starts this prep, winning both, and while the margins haven’t been great, it’s the way she’s won them. She came from last at the 200m to pick them up last start and has run the fastest final 400m of the meeting in both victories this time in. Parnham didn’t even use the whip on her last start. Likely to be back there again but if she gets a tag into the race, I think she’ll finish too well.

Parnham jumps off (9) Safety Fuse and is replaced by Shaun O’Donnell. This filly has won three of her past four starts, and the one she lost, she sat three-wide the trip. Draws perfectly and no reason she can’t run well again.

(6) Pixie Chix ran well behind The Front Bar and subsequent winner Beads, which looks a good form reference, while stablemate (8) Pat’s Got Sass drops in class from what she’s been racing against this prep.

(12) Forever Dreaming worth monitoring first up off two good trials.

Tip: (10) The Velvet Queen $2.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN The Velvet Queen

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 6:42pm (AEDT)

(5) Nowhiteflag faces his toughest test today. Fourth run back into his campaign, back to 1200m against some proper horses, I think the 1200m suits him better than the 1400m – class got him over the line last start – but there is a fair whack of speed in this race too. He’ll jump and run as he does, and so long as he doesn’t cop too much pressure, he can win again.

(1) All Day Session won two on the bounce, then had no luck in the Colonel Reeves Stakes and then ran within a length of Triple Missile last start. He didn’t get a lot of luck in that race either. Carries top weight of 61kg here but draws well and gets Chris Parnham on. Looks a huge chance.

(3) Son Son returned with a very good effort behind a very good horse in God Has Chosen. The barrier and speed map are difficult for him here with Apple Schnapps and Nowhiteflag drawn inside him. He’s a good horse though.

(7) Jedi Mind can improve from his first up run last week, while (8) War Warrior is flying.

Tip: (5) Nowhiteflag $4.00 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 7:17pm (AEDT)

(12) Queen of Soul is two from two this preparation and with even luck from the gate, could make that three today. She was very impressive last weekend in a Westspeed Platinum race and while that form typically isn’t that strong, she had plenty on her opposition.

(14) Bread To Flirt is a 59 rater in a 66+ race, but if you rate Queen Of Soul then you must give this mare a small chance. She was luckless first up behind Queen Of Soul, held up the length of the straight before surging late. Drops from 60kg to 54kg, draws low and could run a cheeky race.

(9) Miss Vasari draws barrier 1 here so could be buried on the rail. She was a good winner last start, seemingly appreciating the 1200m more than the 1000m. Has to be rated highly again.

(2) I’m Pretty next best first up but may be looking for 1400m.

Tip: (12) Queen Of Soul $4.20 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 7:57pm (AEDT)

(1) Dance Music is the class runner of the field as a 105-rater and is so well suited at set weights and penalties. She’s run in Group 1 company at her past two starts and now drops back to a Listed fillies and mares race. She should have no dramas getting across from the wide gate and from there she looks awfully hard to beat.

(4) Angelic Miss just continues to handle whatever is thrown at her. There were doubts about her over 1400m in the Jungle Dawn last start, but she came from last to win, and it will be a similar case here stepping up to the mile for the first time. Has the ability, the only question is whether she gets the distance. If she does, she’ll go very close.

(7) Beret is flying with back-to-back wins and four consecutive 2nds prior to that. Draws for a good run and can feature.

(8) La Farola looks the value in the race but the gate hurts. She beat God Has Chosen first up, that horse has since gone on to win twice since, and then was held up the entire straight last start from barrier 1. With the inside again today she’s going to need luck but she’s not without a hope of causing an upset if she gets it.

(9) Bright Diamond has obvious claims.

Tip: (1) Dance Music $2.90 Bet365

Value: (8) La Farola $14 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Dance Music, 0.5 units WIN La Farola

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 8:27pm (AEDT)

Competitive race this.

(12) Written Matter has to step up once again today but he’s building a very good record now with four wins from five starts. He only just got up in a bob of the heads last start, but he should appreciate getting back up to 1200m here.

(4) Resortman is unbeaten second up from a spell, has four wins from six starts at the distance and two from three at this track and distance. Comes out of a strong race and is a definite chance in this.

(2) Gemma’s Son is unbeaten first up from two attempts. First up at 1200m is a query as most of his racing has been done over the shorter trips and the two races he’s won over 1200m have both been Magic Millions restricted races.

(1) Carocapo carries plenty of weight here but drops out of Group 1 company back to a 78+ race.

(7) Flying Missile next best.

Tip: (12) Written Matter $3.90 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 9:02pm (AEDT)

(4) Crezee is my best value bet of the day here. He’s only got two wins from 26 career starts but he comes into this at the right stage of his preparation. He’s run 2^nd in both starts when having his fifth run into a campaign, and his last run put the writing on the wall that he was ready to feature. He settled back in the field and was held up for the first half of the straight before getting clear and working home into 4^th. That was behind Black Shadow, who then came out and won a Listed race at his next start.

(7) He’s A Lucky Lad has three wins from his past four starts and now gets up to 2100m for the first time. He should get a sweet run in midfield and looks the horse to beat.

Tip: (4) Crezee E/W $23/$5.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Crezee

Odds Last Updated: December 18, 2021, 9:37pm (AEDT)

(12) Red Hot Hope has draw barriers 9/10, 10/12, 9/10, 14/15 and 11/12 since dead-heating first up from barrier 1. Finally, today he comes up with a gate in 5. Hopefully that means he can settle midfield rather than out the back, because he’s actually been working home fairly well from too far back.

(3) Conquered Zone was ridden to lead for some reason last start and went way too quick out the front. Senior rider goes on today from a good draw, won’t lead and will be a good chance in this.

(1) Come Right Back was held up the length of the straight last start. Holly Watson again takes the ride from barrier 13 so tactics will be interesting. If they go back, I’d be taking it on.

(2) Kerman Rock gets Chris Parnham booked third up from a spell and out to 2100m. The problem with him is he’s won just one race from 21 starts.

Throw in (4) The Roan Ranger (one win from 24 starts) and (5) Sentimental Friend (two wins from 27 starts) and there’s a few real suspects at the top of betting.

Tip: (12) Red Hot Hope E/W $20/$4.80 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Conquered Zone $9.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Red Hot Hope, 0.25 units WIN Conquered Zone