Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, December 17th

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 6:17pm (AEDT)

(10) Indy Rose Warrior has run well at her last two at this T/D. She was a touch weak last start but went quite slowly in front and was in the worse ground. She’ll lead from barrier 1 and take some running down, but this is D-Day.

(5) Tricology was good on debut at Mornington, getting back and sustaining a long run to just miss the leader. They put a good gap on 3^rd there and with even luck from a tricky barrier he’ll be coming over the top of them.

(1) Django Express ran well in two career starts last prep and maps well from barrier 4. This is his first time on a dry track and he might improve.

Tip: (10) Indy Rose Warrior- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Indy Rose Warrior

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 6:47pm (AEDT)

(6) For Real Life wasn’t given much hope here last start, sitting 3 wide no cover on speed. She was there until the 150m mark and faded to be beaten 6L but given the run she had it wasn’t a bad effort. There’s precious little speed here and Olly going on is a huge positive- she should be able to sit outside the leader and control the race.

(1) Danny’s St Darci was held up at a crucial stage in the same race before sneaking up the inside and finishing well for 2^nd. She wouldn’t have beaten the winner but still beat For Real Life home by a few lengths and has to be respected from a soft gate.

(9) Rioyuki has won a jumpout since her last run behind Espiona at Flemington, beaten a long way but not disgraced by a potential superstar.

(7) Moon And Back will lead from barrier 1 but would need bias in her favour because 1200m is a big query.

Tip: (6) For Real Life- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (1) Danny’s St Darci- $4.60 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN For Real Life, 0.5 units WIN Danny’s St Darci

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 7:18pm (AEDT)

Looks a fairly simple two horse play in the 3000m race. (5) Saving bolted in here over 2500m two back before being taken on at Sandown last start, setting a strong tempo in front which set it up for Tigertiger to swoop. Back to The Valley and with Kah on board, he’ll be hard to run down.

(6) Aberlady clearly comes out of the best race, beaten 2.8L in the Sandown Cup over 3200m. She was good prior here over 2500m, albeit in a much slower run race than Saving’s win. She’s proven at the longer trip and this is a much more suitable race.

(3) Ourkhani has been going well in SA without winning, the latest over 2500m at Morphettville. He hasn’t won in 70 weeks is the main query.

 

Tip: (5) Saving- $2.80 at Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (6) Aberlady- $7.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Saving, 0.5 units WIN Aberlady

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 7:47pm (AEDT)

Tricky race. (4) Spanish Snitzel is the $3 favourite which looks too short. He’s ready to win 3^rd up but gets back in the field with the 3kg claimer on.

(6) Fontein Diamond was solid on speed at this T/D last start and will look to cross and lead again. She went quite slowly in front there in a messy race so perhaps the wide gate and Kelly replacing Lloyd will ensure she puts the pressure on.

(1) Humble Pie was good first up and suited up in trip, but may need 2000m and one more to be ready.

Tip: (6) Fontein Diamond- $6.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Fontein Diamond

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 8:17pm (AEDT)

Have to follow up with (2) Pravro at the price he is, despite Lloyd staying on, who gave him an awfully negative ride first up when smashed in betting. She had every opportunity to follow the 3 wide line before the turn but chose to stay in and ease off heels late, flashing into 2^nd. The horse has a good 2^nd up record and the market support first up was telling.

(4) Sweetzou was too good for Kev’s Girl first up, who has won one of these since. Small query with her is in most of her preps she’s won first up then spelled. She ran 2^nd up last prep and was solid over 1100m so it’ll be interesting to see how she goes 2^nd up staying at the 955m.

(1) Heavenly Bridges is a handy mare who has run well in stronger grade. She’s a winner over this course and could show up fresh.

Tip: (2) Pravro- $16.00/5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Pravro

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 8:47pm (AEDT)

(9) Poppy Joan is ready to peak 3^rd up after an unlucky run last start. She’s got upside and gets Kah on from a good gate to stalk the speed. In a race where most have met their mark, she’s the one that appeals.

I’m sick of (8) Sacred Lass who has run a 0.1L 2^nd at this T/D her last two. Madi Lloyd stays on and I think she should’ve made the most of her claim and easy lead last start to take off early. She’s becoming very hard to back.

Tip: (9) Poppy Joan- $3.30 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Poppy Joan

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 9:17pm (AEDT)

Tough race. (2) Merle The Pearl won two races last prep over 1400m and 1600m, the latter a good win in town. 1200m is the query.

(13) Escadora has upside with just the two runs last prep. She’s jumped out well and gets Kah on.

(4) Gloves Are Off was a surprise winner over this T/D last start but it was a tough win on speed. He draws wide here but will try hard again.

Not much interest betting here.

Tip: (4) Gloves Are Off- $5.00 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: December 17, 2021, 9:47pm (AEDT)

(9) La Caresse had absolutely no luck at this T/D behind Savannah Cloud last start. He got into an awful spot on the rails and only got out at the 150m, with Jye barely able to start riding him out. His effort to finish 3^rd to a couple of smart horses was good.

(14) Rights Of Man was just fair over 1000m first up, going through the line well for 3^rd but never looking a threat. I think he’s been priced on potential and jockey/trainer over what he’s done to date, and he’ll need to be good from the wide gate. He needs two runners to come out, and I hope he does so we get better prices.

(6) Rock Tycoon sat 3 wide no cover on speed in the same race as Rights Of Man and was only 1.3L off that horse. I think he’s better over 1200m than 1000m and his very narrow 2^nd to Imperial Lad over this T/D last prep reads very well for this. The draw is sticky again but he always goes around good odds.

Tip: (9) La Caresse- $4.80 at TopSport

Value: (6) Rock Tycoon- $11.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN La Caresse, 0.5 units WIN Rock Tycoon