Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, December 26th

Odds Last Updated: February 10, 2021, 6:16pm (AEDT)

(9) Silent Act has had a few chances but this is probably the best of the lot for her to break through. She’s placed in seven of her 11 starts and comes into this off a six-week freshen up, having won a trial in between races. She brings form behind the likes of Brave Dream and Beau Zoom, which is good enough for her to win this.

(5) Warlago should lead and can give a sight. The track at Ascot is likely to be rock-hard with very hot weather all week, and with the rail out, it could prove very tricky to run horses down early in the day.

(8) Wicklow Princess was heavily backed first up last prep and only went down narrowly after sitting three-wide the trip.

(1) Prized Nemesis was a big run first up at Bunbury but has had numerous opportunities to win one.

Tip: (9) Silent Act $2.30 Bet365

Value: (5) Warlago $11.20 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1 unit WIN Silent Act, 0.25 units WIN Warlago

Odds Last Updated: January 31, 2021, 9:06am (AEDT)

(10) Hot Mix has been impressive in both career starts, winning over 1200m on debut before dropping back to 1100m last start and repeating the dose. There is some query over the form out of that race last start, but she won easily and although stepping up from 1100m to 1400m isn’t ideal, I think she’s good enough to handle it.

(3) La Farola was good in defeat first up at Bunbury where she likely needed the run. Chris Parnham jumps off to ride Hot Mix but Pike takes over. Drawn well, up to 1400m suits and should be ready.

(2) Chilli Is Hot won her first two starts and then returned with a 4th placing behind Toscana, where she probably should have finished closer. Making up the ground might be the issue but she’s clearly got plenty of ability.

Tip: (10) Hot Mix $2.85 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Hot Mix

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I think $41 for (1) Rock’n’ruler is way over the odds. He ran last at his first run back from a spell, beaten 7.7L, but he’s done that in his past two preparations before coming out and winning second up on both occasions. He was beaten 10.3L at Northam first up last October, then came out second up and won at York, and then first up in April he ran 9th before winning second up over this track and distance. I expect him to improve sharply.

(10) London Miss broke through for a deserved win last start over 1200m. The race was all over after 100m when she found the front and was able to dictate. She had run the fastest final 600m in defeat in her two starts leading into that. Tackles 1400m for the first time today so I wonder if they’ll be looking to take a sit behind the likes of Scooter’s Machine and Wakan Tanka. With that in mind, as well as the rise to Saturday grade, I’ll be against her.

(7) Scooter’s Machine and (11) Wakan Tanka look the two leaders and get their chance once again.

Happy to have something small each way on Rock’n’ruler at $41/$11.

Tip: (1) Rock’n’ruler $41 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.25 units WIN/0.5 units PLACE Rock’n’ruler,

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(8) Son Of A God resumes from a spell today with Chris Parnham booked for Simon Miller. He’s won five of his eight career starts and he’s tactically versatile, so he could lead or take a sit from the inside gate. The form around Windstorm and Massimo from the end of last prep looks good for a race like this.

(1) Malibu Style might be past his best but he gets a big drop in grade today, all the way back to 78+ race.

(5) Ziebell has won his past two starts, but they’ve been over 1100m and 1000m. He now steps up to 1200m, a distance he’s never won at.

(7) Diablerie is racing well and can feature in the placings again.

Tip: (8) Son Of A God $1.85 Ladbrokes

Betting strategy: 2 units WIN Son Of A God

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

I was with (4) Mr Kunafa last start and I’m going to stick with him today. Might be going off one run early because I would have preferred him stepping up in distance, but he should be ready to do something third up today. He made improvement from his first run to his second run – jumping cleanly helped – but hopefully he can settle a touch closer today and if that’s the case, he might be competitive.

(2) Kelly’s Calisto should lead and be hard to run down, just as he was last start. He goes well at this track and distance and he gets a positive jockey change today with Chris Parnham replacing Carleen Hefel.

(7) Glamour Packed gets blinkers on for the first time. She was a bit plain last start but if the shades sharpen her up, she’ll be hard to beat.

(6) Crystal Valley next best.

Tip: (4) Mr Kunafa $9.00 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 0.5 units E/W Mr Kunafa

Odds Last Updated: February 28, 2021, 9:56am (AEDT)

(4) Beret was dominant first up at Bunbury but was a touch flat last start, when well-backed to win again. Pike takes over from Laqdar Ramoly today so will give him another chance from the good draw.

(5) No Surrender should lead easily and that makes him very hard to beat. Chris Parnham takes over from Mitchell Pateman and despite the drop back in distance, he’ll go very well.

(11) Regal Magic is a good roughie at blowout odds. She was very brave last start when she sat three-wide the trip and only went down narrowly. She should go forward and even though she steps up to Saturday grade, she can outrun her price.

(6) What About Moses next best.

Tip: (4) Beret $2.55 Sportsbetting

Value: (11) Regal Magic $35 Sportsbet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Beret, 0.25 units WIN Regal Magic

Odds Last Updated: January 10, 2021, 12:55am (AEDT)

Going to be backing the top two in the market here. (2) Lipstick Flickers won first up last preparation and has a good record at this track and distance, with a win and two 2nds from three starts. Won her recent trial and should go forward from barrier 8 to sit right up on the speed. Looks well placed.

(10) Sweet Strawberry didn’t come up as good last prep but she returned with a very easy win first up at Bunbury. She won by a length but she could have won by about three if Pike had ridden her out to the line. Pike sticks with her today and she might be the horse on the up.

(3) Bee Quick has won two from two this prep and has obvious claims again, while (6) Seminole Brave peaked on his run first up and may be better second up today.

Tip: (2) Lipstick Flickers $3.80 TAB

Also backing: (10) Sweet Strawberry $5.00 Unibet

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Lipstick Flickers, 1 unit WIN Sweet Strawberry

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

(2) Neufbosc is my best of the day here. He was running well against the likes of Inspirational Girl earlier in the prep, before being outclassed in the Kingston Town Classic. He bounced back with a good run in defeat in the Towton Cup last start when it was a horror show for backers. He was held up badly behind a wall of runners while Trap For Fools skipped clear on the turn. Once he got clear, he really hit the line hard and indicated he is spot on for a race like this heading towards the Perth Cup. Hopefully he gets a bit more luck today.

(6) Money Maher also didn’t get much luck in the same race, held up for the majority of the straight. His only other run over the track and distance before that was a win, so with even luck today he should be competitive.

(7) Mystery Miss jumps from 1600m to 2200m and Pike goes back on, so look for her to improve.

Tip: (2) Neufbosc $2.50 Bet365

Betting strategy: 2.5 units WIN Neufbosc

Odds Last Updated: December 27, 2020, 12:51am (AEDT)

Keeping it simple in the last, backing (10) Mood Swings and saving on the form horse (6) Leica Jaguar.

Mood Sings won easily on debut last prep and then went on to be competitive against horses like Miss Frost, Windstorm and Indian Pacific. That’s very good form for a race like this so if he’s improved with the break, he should be very hard to beat.

Leica Jaguar has won his past two starts at the track and distance and from five starts at the Ascot 1000m, has finished in the top two on four occasions. Draws midfield and Chris Parnham retains the ride. Should be finishing hard.

Tip: (10) Mood Swings $3.80 Bet365

Saver: (6) Leica Jaguar $5.10 Sportsbetting

Betting strategy: 1.5 units WIN Mood Swings, 0.5 units WIN Leica Jaguar