Racing Tips

Ascot Racing Tips: Saturday, October 16th

Tim Geers previews Northerly Stakes day at Ascot and picks out his best bets on the card.

by
Tim Geers
15 October 2021

A good day of racing today at Ascot in the West with the Group 3 Northerly Stakes and the Listed Crawford Stakes headlining a nine-race card.

The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 5m.

Tim Geers has picked out his best bets on the card, which come up in Race 1, Race 7 and Race 8.

Scroll down to find our Ascot racing tips below!

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Race 1

Happy 70Th Reg Bartle (Rs1mw) (1200m)
3:36pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Happy 70Th Reg Bartle (Rs1mw) (1200m) 3:36pm (AEDT)
1. Multinational (9) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: N D Parnham	14	13	12	12	10.8	13
2. Devoted (4) J: William Pike (58kg) T: G & A Williams	2.3	2.35	2.3	2.4	2.3	2.25
3. Six Carat (7) J: Craig Staples (58kg) T: P H Jordan	101	91	81	91	65	81
4. Buzzoom (5) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: D L Morton	5	4.8	4.6	4.6	4.95	4.8
5. Hardly Ever (2) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: Simon Miller	2.8	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.95	2.9
6. Plemont (1) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: F R Kersley	17	18	18	20	19	18
7. Yemen Lass (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Luke Fernie	41	34	34	34	26.5	34
8. The Lady Is A Vamp (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: L P Luciani	34	31	31	31	24.5	31
9. Dadirra (3) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (55kg) T: F R Kersley	23	20	19	19	16	19

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Keen to be with the very promising (5) Hardly Ever who was backed as if unbeatable on debut and delivered by producing a barnstorming finish from the back of the field. Looks to be a serious filly for the Simon Miller stable and I expect her to be very hard to beat again today.

(2) Devoted beat Noble Born on debut at Northam and they pulled nearly 7L clear of the rest of the field, but Noble Born failed to win on Wednesday so there is a small query over just how good that form is.

(6) Plemont is still a maiden but I think has some talent and did trial well. Can be included at $20.

Tip: (5) Hardly Ever $2.75 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Hardly Ever

Race 2

Morley Growers Market (Bm72+) (2200m)
4:19pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Morley Growers Market (Bm72+) (2200m) 4:19pm (AEDT)
1. Roman Flirt (5) J: William Pike (60kg) T: D & B Pearce	2.2	2.35	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.4
2. Baramagic (6) J: Brad Parnham (58kg) T: Brian Kersley	5.5	5	5	5	4.55	5
3. Final Chill (1) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh	19	16	15	15	15	15
4. Saxon Saxoff (7) J: Ms Holly Watson (57kg) T: K M Green	51	41	41	41	32	41
5. Queen Takes King (3) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: L Smith	6.5	6.5	6.5	7	5.7	6.5
6. Secret Pearl (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: Ricky Moss	8	8	7.5	8	8.1	7.5
7. Regal City (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: P J Fernie	7	6	5.5	6	7.1	5.5
8. Schooling (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: J J Enright	41	34	34	34	34	34
9. Trade Master (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: E A Martinovich	18	18	18	18	14.8	18

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 4:21pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tabtouch Platinum (Rs0mw) (1200m)
4:55pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Tabtouch Platinum (Rs0mw) (1200m) 4:55pm (AEDT)
1. Apple Schnapps (7) J: William Pike (61kg) T: L Smith	4.2	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.6	4.4
2. Image Keeper (1) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	3.3	3	3.1	3.2	3.35	3.2
3. Flicka's Chance (3) J: Jason Whiting (57.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich	4.2	3.9	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.8
4. Pink 'N' Gray (4) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57.5kg) T: G P Evans	23	21	18	20	17.4	18
5. Jaguar Grey (10) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56.5kg) T: B V Watkins	10	10	10	10	9.4	10
6. Smashing (6) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham	6.5	7	7	7.5	6.2	7
7. Miss Quoted (8) J: Ms Victoria Corver (55kg) T: G M Ayres	35	34	34	34	31	34
8. Winsalot (5) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: L P Luciani	15	15	14	15	15.2	14
9. Advocator (9) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: F R Kersley	34	34	31	34	25.5	31
10. Rexford (11) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	101	126	101	101	87	126
11. Rock Hard Omaru (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54kg) T: Kirsten Melis	31	31	26	31	22.5	26

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 4:56pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Seacorp (Bm72+) (1600m)
5:44pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Seacorp (Bm72+) (1600m) 5:44pm (AEDT)
1. Staralign (8) J: Paul Harvey (60kg) T: P J Fernie	5	4.8	4.4	4.4	5.1	4.8
2. Karijini Aurora (6) J: William Pike (58kg) T: Summer Dickson	3.4	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5
3. Miracle Man (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: Jordan Rolfe	41	41	34	41	36	34
4. Son Of Bacchus (5) J: Shaun O'donnell (57.5kg) T: Rhys Radford	4.5	4.2	4	4.4	4.1	4
5. Rebel Knight (1) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	4.8	4.6	4.6	4.6	4.35	4.6
6. No Apology (3) J: Brad Parnham (56.5kg) T: S J Miller	6.5	6.5	6.5	7	5.9	6.5
7. Miss Marietta (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (55kg) T: Brett Pope	12	12	11	12	11.2	11
8. Yadreamin' (2) J: Steven Parnham (55kg) T: C R Green	41	34	34	34	31	34

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 5:46pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw) (1500m)
6:27pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Glenroy Chaff (Rs1mw) (1500m) 6:27pm (AEDT)
1. Outback Jack (10) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (59.5kg) T: S J Miller	9.5	9	9	9	7.9	9
2. Little Flirt (7) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (59kg) T: R W Matthews	15	15	14	14	12.4	15
3. Celebrity Witness (8) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: D & B Pearce	8	8	7.5	8	8.1	7.5
4. Jag The Joker (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A W Maley	23	21	21	21	20	23
5. Jarman (9) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: G P Jones	15	16	16	16	13.2	16
6. Spritely Star (2) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: G & A Williams	1.7	1.75	1.7	1.7	1.82	1.75
7. The Roan Ranger (6) J: Troy Turner (55.5kg) T: P E Roberts	41	41	41	41	33	41
8. Costa Lante (4) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: Joshua Mcleod	101	101	101	101	111	101
9. My Fury (3) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.2	5
10. Special Picture (1) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (54kg) T: Raymond Vincent	27	26	26	26	27.5	26

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 6:31pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Brava Mento Rec. Holder-Rs1mw (1000m)
7:05pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Brava Mento Rec. Holder-Rs1mw (1000m) 7:05pm (AEDT)
1. Double Jeopardy (11) J: William Pike (60kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson	12	11	11	11.6	11
2. Triple Missile (5) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: L Smith	2.15	2.15	2.15	2.1	2.15
3. Desert Thorn (6) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: J J Enright	51	41	41	53	41
4. Forest War (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (59kg) T: J P Taylor	12	11	10	11	10
5. Vadette De Star (10) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: Simon Miller	3.1	3.1	3.1	3	3.1
6. Cockyjoy (1) J: Steven Parnham (56.5kg) T: J E Grieve	20	21	21	17.2	23
7. Blankenberge (9) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite	41	41	41	43	41
8. Requisition (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (55.5kg) T: Brett Pope	19	21	21	20	23
9. Katona (12) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: R G Turrell Jnr	41	34	34	26	34
10. My Blueboy (7) J: Keshaw Dhurun (55kg) T: P E Roberts	31	26	26	28.5	26
11. Strike (8) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
12. Go Forward (4) J: Brad Parnham (54kg) T: C & M Gangemi	14	13	12	10.4	12

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 7:06pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Furphy - R.S. Crawford Stakes (1000m)
7:42pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Furphy - R.S. Crawford Stakes (1000m) 7:42pm (AEDT)
1. Elite Street (2) J: Brad Rawiller (59.5kg) T: D L Morton	5.5	5	4.8	4.8	5.1	5
2. Indian Pacific (9) J: Brad Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	3.1	3.2	3.1	3.1	3.55	3.2
3. Flirtini (10) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56.5kg) T: Simon Miller	9	9	8.5	9	8.8	8.5
4. Stageman (5) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant	4	4	4	4.2	4.15	4
5. Mervyn (6) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: Luke Fernie	12	12	12	13	10.8	12
6. Bam's On Fire (7) J: Steven Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham	41	34	34	34	26.5	34
7. Rock Magic (4) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: C & M Gangemi	12	11	10	9.5	9	11
8. Carocapo (3) J: Jason Brown (55kg) T: J P Taylor	41	41	34	41	29.5	34
9. Don't Fuss (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: D & B Pearce	35	34	31	34	25.5	31
10. River Beau (1) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: B V Watkins	9	9	8.5	9	7.5	8.5

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

Cracking edition of the Crawford here with a very strong field.

I think we’ll see the old boy (7) Rock Magic run a cracker here. The 12-year-old normally runs very well first up. Last prep he flashed home in the Northam Stakes, the prep before that he did similar when 3rd in the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes, and this time two years ago he ran 4th in a Manikato. Draws well, very well weighted with 55kg here and has to be a strong place chance.

(1) Elite Street will win this if he turns up at his absolute best but that’s the obvious concern.

(2) Indian Pacific is better suited here than he was in the Newmarket with 61.5kg. Down to 57.5kg today and gets back to Ascot where he absolutely loves this track and distance.

Tip: (7) Rock Magic to place $3.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units PLACE Rock Magic

Race 8

Crown Perth - Northerly Stakes (1400m)
8:18pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Crown Perth - Northerly Stakes (1400m) 8:18pm (AEDT)
1. Regal Power (2) J: Patrick Carbery (60.5kg) T: G & A Williams	12	13	13	13	13.2	13
2. Valour Road (6) J: Brad Rawiller (58.5kg) T: Simon Miller	5.5	5.5	5	4.8	5	5.5
3. Neufbosc (12) J: Jason Brown (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham	41	41	41	41	38	41
4. Western Empire (5) J: William Pike (58.5kg) T: G & A Williams	3	3	2.9	3.1	3.15	2.9
5. Kay Cee (11) J: Steven Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	18	18	18	20	20	17
6. Taxagano (7) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57.5kg) T: F R Kersley	35	41	41	41	30	41
7. Massimo (13) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi	5.5	5	4.8	4.8	4.8	5
8. Uni Time (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller
9. Platoon (10) J: Chris Parnham (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham	14	14	14	14	11.8	14
10. Last Of The Line (1) J: Ryan Hill (56.5kg) T: S J Miller	21	20	19	20	19	19
11. Dance Music (8) J: Brad Parnham (55.5kg) T: Simon Miller	7	7	7	7	6.5	7
12. Naughty By Nature (9) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (55.5kg) T: J F Miller	20	19	18	19	19.8	18
13. Vital Silver (4) J: Joseph Azzopardi (55kg) T: D & B Pearce	27	31	31	31	24	31

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 8:21pm (AEDT)

(13) Massimo ran a belter first up for the Gangemi yard and that was after a hoof issue which meant he had to wear a bar plate. The bar plate comes off today so if he improves with normal shoes on, he’s going to be very hard to beat. Should sit outside the lead and be hard to run down.

(2) Valour Road also ran particularly well in that Black Heart Bart Stakes, and should be suited second up at 1400m. Looks to sit one-one for an ideal run.

(11) Dance Music should lead but with the others having a run under their belts, I think they may just prove too strong today.

(10) Last Of The Line and (12) Naughty By Nature blowout chances.

Tip: (13) Massimo $4.40 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Massimo

Race 9

Amelia Park (Bm66+) (1400m)
8:55pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Amelia Park (Bm66+) (1400m) 8:55pm (AEDT)
1. Moschard (3) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (61kg) T: P J Fernie	9	8.5	8	9	9.1	8
2. Majinika (8) J: Ms Holly Watson (60.5kg) T: Summer Dickson	41	41	34	41	30	34
3. Position Of Power (7) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59.5kg) T: D R Harrison	31	31	26	31	27	26
4. Red Publisher (11) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58.5kg) T: A W Maley	27	26	26	26	27.5	26
5. Em Tee Aye (2) J: Brad Rawiller (58kg) T: T M Andrews	4.8	5	5	5.5	5.3	5
6. Beret (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	8.1	7.5
7. Downforce (4) J: Steven Parnham (56.5kg) T: N D Parnham	14	14	14	15	11.8	14
8. Point Taken (1) J: Laqdar Ramoly (56kg) T: J P Taylor	23	21	21	21	17.4	21
9. Island Missile (9) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: C & M Gangemi	9.5	9	8.5	9	7.6	8.5
10. Tiff Has Spoken (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: Ms S L Miller	17	17	17	17	14.4	17
11. My Fair Balentine (12) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54.5kg) T: Daniel O'connor	51	51	51	51	38	51
12. Real Charisma (10) J: William Pike (54kg) T: G & A Williams	2.5	2.45	2.35	2.3	2.55	2.5

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 8:56pm (AEDT)

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.