Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, October 16th

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

Going to back two runners at big odds here.

(1) Arapaho hasn’t won since arriving in Australia but there’s a set up here to suggest he might run well. He drops from a BM94 back to a BM78 and James McDonald goes on second up, carrying the full 61.5kg. He gets up to his preferred distance of 1400m now and gets a wet track which all three career wins have come on. Draws very poorly in 15 but at $17 he’s a bet.

(4) Zing is the other I expect to run well at double figure odds. Might be going off one or two runs too early but she has placed in her last two first up runs. She will love the conditions today, having placed in 10 of her 13 starts on rain-affected ground. That’s the big plus for her today and with any luck from the gate, she’s at least a place chance.

(14) Fox Fighter is absolutely flying with three wins from past four starts, but the step up from 1000m to 1400m on a heavy deck must be a concern.

Tip: (1) Arapaho $17 TAB

Also Backing: (4) Zing $10 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Arapaho, 0.5 units WIN Zing

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

(10) High Supremacy comes here on the one-week backup after contesting the Silver Eagle last weekend, where he was beaten 1.2L. Gets blinkers on first time here and carries just 52kg so rates highly, but you couldn’t tempt me to back him at even money.

(1) Rock drops out of Group 1 company, beaten 2.3L in an Epsom Handicap last start, and now returns to an Open Handicap. Whether he is at his best is the main issue but this is a race he should be very competitive in, despite carrying top weight.

(3) Looks Like Elvis ran a bottler first up behind Atishu in the Bill Ritchie. Aramayo was back in 3rd and that horse came out and ran 2nd in the Epsom, so the form looks strong. Main concern for Elvis will be the wet track – he isn’t hopeless on it but goes better on firmer footing. Chance nonetheless.

Tip: (3) Looks Like Elvis $9.50 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

Looks a nice race for (2) Ahead Start, who ran very well first up behind Leo in a similar race. He came from back in the field and ran home strongly, but just found Leo a touch too good. Leo then came out and bolted in last weekend in a harder race, so that’s a big positive for the form and with the better barrier draw today, Ahead Start should take some beating.

(12) Ten Bells didn’t get any luck last start, planted wide throughout. Won on heavy ground three starts ago and won a similar race to this two starts ago so has to be respected.

(10) Lady Demi hasn’t been at her best the past couple of preparations, but her best form would see her be very competitive in a race like this, so $61 looks way over the odds.

Plenty more chances in a typically open Highway.

Tip: (2) Ahead Start $2.80 PlayUp

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Ahead Start

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 2:16pm (AEDT)

(9) Riduna should find the lead here and will give this field something to chase. She only comes off a maiden win at Wyong but many of these fillies are in the same boat. Not a betting race for me but she should give a good sight at each way odds.

(5) Fangirl was dominant breaking her maiden at Goulburn last start, scoring by more than 5L. McDonald jumps off the stablemate which he rode to victory last start in order to jump on this horse which has to be a good lead.

(1) Decent Raine scored by a big margin on a heavy track at Echuca so she’ll handle the conditions, which is half the battle. Has been running well in Melbourne.

(3) Hoover Lucy will be thereabouts and (13) I Am Me can be included despite being a maiden.

Tip: (9) Riduna $7.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

(3) Art Cadeau has never finished out of the top two from 11 career starts so on that basis alone, he should be right in the mix for The Kosciuszko. Obviously goes well first up and is adept on all surfaces, draws well and Tommy Berry is booked so there’s plenty to like.

(1) Handle The Truth won this race two years ago and then ran 4th last year after sitting wide throughout. Draws the inside so won’t be sitting wide this year. He’s been running against half of The Everest field in his past couple of starts so it’s fair to say he will find this a great deal easier. Goes well on heavy ground and has to be a main contender.

(7) Edit has been set for this race some way out and stamped his claims with an impressive first up win in the Spring Cup at Tamworth. Bowman booked, tricky draw but will be flashing home.

(10) Nadaraja next best.

Tip: (3) Art Cadeau $5.00/$2.05 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Art Cadeau

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

The conditions really suit (5) Big Parade here but there’s two versions of this horse and the glaring statistic is that he’s never put two wins together in his career. Six of his seven career wins have been at this distance though. Will be in the finish but whether he can be a bit unreliable.

James McDonald has ridden (2) Signore Fox six times for five wins so it’s notable that he’s booked to ride him first up here. Has three wins from six starts first up, including last prep, but the biggest query is going to be the wet track, which his record isn’t as good on. If he handles the conditions he’ll go very close to winning.

(1) Kementari won down the Flemington straight first up. Amazingly, he’s never raced on heavy ground but he has run successfully on soft ground before. Bowman booked and will run his usual race.

(6) Prime Candidate looks the value at double figure odds.

Tip: (2) Signore Fox $6.00 TopSport

Value: (6) Prime Candidate $17 TopSport

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

Click here to find our runner-by-runner preview of the TAB Everest!

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

(1) Think It Over was my best bet of the day last start at a better price than this and I won’t be diving in today given he only scrambled over the line last start. He draws the outside today but that’s not a big issue with the small field. Likely to be better off for that last run over 2000m and he’s probably looking for the track to improve into the soft range given he’s finished out of the money in all three starts on heavy ground. Think he wins but no moral.

(2) Shared Ambition was the horse that took Think It Over all the way last start. Looks to find the lead again and will be right in the mix once again.

(12) Bargain can be included at big odds. Didn’t get a whole lot of luck last start and now gets up to 2000m.

(4) Yonkers defied the pattern of the day winning first up, has a good second up record and won his only previous start at the track and distance.

Tip: (1) Think It Over $1.75 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 5:31pm (AEDT)

I would have preferred a good track for (1) Entente but he should be hard to beat nonetheless here. He won the Colin Stephen before going down by a nose in The Metropolitan last start. We’ve seen a couple of examples in recent years of horses coming out of The Metropolitan and winning this race so I’ll butter up on him again.

Expecting sharp improvement from (2) Warning who has placed just once from 12 starts when first or second up, but has two wins from four starts when third up, including last preparation. Definitely worth having something on at double figure odds.

The same can be said for (8) Carif who also should improve sharply up to 2600m third up. He needs every bit of this distance.

(13) Purrfect Deal and (14) High Emocean chances.

Tip: (1) Entente $4.00 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) Carif $10 BlueBet

Value: (2) Warning $12 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Entente, 0.5 units WIN Carif, 0.5 units WIN Warning

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

(1) Equation gets his chance today with several things suiting him. He’s third up, drops out of the Silver Eagle, gets a wet track which he needs, draws well, gets some weight relief from the apprentice and gets up to 1400m. He was never a factor first up when settling last on a track where you had to be on speed. He then copped plenty of interference in the Silver Eagle after they had announced a change of tactics to go forward. I suspect we see him ridden much more positive today and he should be hard to beat.

(8) Promise Of Success will be at the other end of the field and will be launching late. She produced a big finish to win first up and then just found one too good last start. Goes well in the wet and she did run an enormous race in defeat third up last prep.

(15) Cape Breton is the interesting runner, having his first run as a three-year-old, having won his first two starts as a juvenile before finishing down the field in the JJ Atkins.

Tip: (1) Equation $3.30 BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Equation