Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, October 16th

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

(10) Eagles Crag has to go on top. Been a big fan of this horse and I think he’ll be a group class horse in time. The slow tempo got him over racing first up when $2.90 and 1.5L off Mr Brightside which is very good form, and he still hit the line well. He was far too good at $1.45 last start and the stable have a very high opinion of him. The map looks good, the only query is a wet track, although his trial before last start on heavy was good. Note that he’s got synthetic hoof filler on which is a small query and I do expect to get a better price late.

(5) Seiners Express is easy to tie in having hit the line well behind Mr Brightside at Flemington last start on a race dominated on speed. If he can settle closer from barrier 5 he’s a chance of knocking off the favourite.

(7) Mimi’s Award can improve up in trip but might need one more.

Tip: (10) Eagles Crag- $2.20 at BoomBet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Eagles Crag (Best Tote/Starting Price)

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

(1) Vianello ran well in the Jim Moloney last start, not beaten far by Queen Of Dubai and Zouzarella who were both well beaten in the guineas. She’s probably the most likely winner but I don’t want to back her.

(6) No Crying has run on well her last couple in fairly strong maidens. Up to 1400m looks ideal now and the form around Prowling/Our Boy Bryan two back is fairly strong.

Tip: (6) No Crying- $6.50 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(3) Extreme Flight is the horse to beat. His maiden win at Moe on a soft 7 was dominant with the blinkers on and his win at Sandown was very strong, beating Prix De Turn who ran very well in the Caulfield Guineas and Lina’s Legend. Wide draw not ideal but he’s on the up and should be hard to hold out.

(6) Cheerful Legend was very well backed first up at Mornington and won impressively. He does boast a 1.8L 4th to Lightsaber in the VRC Sires at 1400m and maps well here. Happy to save on him because I think he’s come back well and can progress.

(4) Sandy Prince is a handy horse but I think he might need a spell. He’s set fast tempos his last two and looked weak late. Back to 1400m might help but I’m prepared to be against.

Tip: (3) Extreme Flight- $3.50 at TopSport

Also Backing: (6) Cheerful Legend- $7.00 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Extreme Flight, 0.5 units WIN Cheerful Legend

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Very keen on (10) Kapalua Sunset who is my best bet of the day. Her debut run was very good from back in the field running 3rd to Gundec who has won a derby trial since. She went to Kyneton over 1875m and absolutely bolted in. She beat nothing, but the time was good and she’s only going to improve up to 2000m. She’ll love any rain, draws ideally, and Prebble can barely contain his excitement about her. Think she’ll start $1.80, win and replace Barb Raider as Oaks favourite for now.

(8) Tiz My Bay should probably be a bit shorter. She hasn’t had much luck her last two and should’ve finished closer than the 2.8L margin behind Barb Raider last start, although that filly was soft on the line. Blackcomb ran 2nd in that race and was a moral beaten in Adelaide last week. Up to 2000m should suit and I’ll have something very small on her.

(7) Mokolua comes out of the race behind Elusive Express and Yearning which did provide the Thousand Guineas quinella. Prebble hops off and 2000m is a query.

Tip: (10) Kapalua Sunset- $2.20 at Sportsbet

Saver: (8) Tiz My Bay- $15.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 4.25 units WIN Kapalua Sunset, 0.25 units WIN Tiz My Bay

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 2:36pm (AEDT)

Siding with the horse out of the best race and that’s (1) Micro who comes through the Stutt Stakes behind Forgot You, who I think is the #1 seed for the derby. That was a fast early race and he closed off well, beaten 1.1L and running the 2nd fastest last 200m. The maiden win was dominant, getting to 2000m is ideal and I think he’s close to the horse to beat.

(12) Antonio Giovanni is another that brings completely different form down from Sydney. He made up a stack of late ground last start at Rosehill over 1500m in a potentially decent maiden. Very interesting placement by Waller and I think the horse is looking for 2000m.

(6) Gunstock got too far back last start at Flemington and looks a grinding stayer. Barrier 2 potentially a bit tricky for him but he’ll be strong late.

Tip: (1) Micro- $4.80 at Sportsbet

Value: (12) Antonino Giovanni- $26.00/6.50 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Micro, 0.25 units E/W Antonio Giovanni

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 3:11pm (AEDT)

He’s back. (8) Buffalo River after going in the forget file last week is on the quick backup and potentially, finally finds a wet track. I did say in the review piece that I’m sacking him on good tracks, but if you look at his wet track form, it’s very good. From 8 starts on rain affected ground he’s won 5 and never missed a place, including a huge rating at this T/D when forced to work very hard early and he kept running. His last go on a soft track was at this T/D when first up and only just run down by Windstorm. He should lead here and if he gets conditions to suit, he just has to be given another chance.

(10) King Magnus is a very consistent horse and should run well. He’s had 5 weeks between runs which is a bit of a query, but a wet track is no issue despite his heavy failure which was a forgive.

(2) Morvada is going well and I was keen to back him in this exact race off a review piece, but a wet track isn’t ideal. If it’s worse than a soft 5 I’m prepared to risk, but he’s ready to peak here.

(1) Zoutori looks very short. He’s going well and should be close to peak fitness, but he gets away from Flemington, up to 1400m and strikes a wet track which he doesn’t like. I know they’re potentially targeting a Cantala over 1600m but I’d prefer to be against.

If Buffalo River fails here I swear I’ll never tip him again, but on a wet track he has to be given another chance.

Tip: (8) Buffalo River- $3.30 at TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Buffalo River

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 3:46pm (AEDT)

Very interesting and tricky race. (2) Colette has had feet issues leading into this and the equicast and ¾ plate goes on the off front, which isn’t ideal. It suggests her foot hasn’t completely healed, and the other query is she’s 5 weeks between runs dropping back to 1400m after originally on a Caulfield Cup path. The positive is she’s easily the best horse in the race and an elite wet tracker, which she hasn’t struck this prep.

(3) Nimalee looks ready to win. Her two Sydney runs this prep have been very good and she handles soft ground fine. If Colette doesn’t perform near her best, she’ll be hard to beat.

(8) Pride Of Jenni could be the value. She started $61 last start which is why she’s double figures again here, but if you isolate that performance she should be much shorter having split Still A Star and Mystic Journey in a fast run race at Flemington. She led and had favourite Annavisto on her outside and comfortably beat that horse home, she can sit in the first 2 again here, loves wet ground and should run well. Something each way, because if Colette is near her best she’ll probably win, but I think Pride Of Jenni will stick on for a place.

Tip: (8) Pride Of Jenni- $11.00/2.95 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Pride Of Jenni

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 4:31pm (AEDT)

Keen to back two here at good odds. (2) Varda looks ideally placed 2nd up after running well 1st up over 1000m at Warwick Farm. She’s got an excellent 2nd up record (5:2-1-0) and absolutely loves wet tracks, 3/3 on heavy. 2nd up last prep she was enormous coming from a long way back to win a listed race at Doomben, Lane goes on, she can blend it to the race 3 wide and looks a good bet.

(12) Lashes is the other I want to play. She’s got a solid 1st up record having only missed a place once and her only go at Caulfield was a 2.2L 4th to Probabeel. She’s also very adept on wet tracks, gets the perfect map behind the speed from barrier 5 and gets Prebble on, which just looks a no brainer bet here at $26.

(9) Emanate next pick, stablemate of Varda, she looks ready to peak 3rd up, is going well this prep and handles all track conditions. Think Varda is a slightly better horse however.

Tip: (2) Varda- $6.00 at Bet365

Value: (12) Lashes- $26.00/7.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Varda, 0.25/0.5 units E/W Lashes

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

For my runner-by-runner preview of the Caulfield Cup, click the link below:

https://www.racingbet.com.au/caulfield-cup-2021-runner-by-runner-preview/

Odds Last Updated: October 16, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

(9) Oxley Road on top. I’ve liked both runs this prep, the first down the straight when winning the inside division which was the worst ground and the second running 3rd to Masked Crusader. I like him back to 1000m and a wet track is too his liking. I think he’ll take a sit just behind the fast speed and hoping he can get to the right part of the track.

(10) Curran resumed with a really strong 955m win but I do query him on a wet track. He gets a good map and likes Caulfield, just not sure if it’s heavy.

(3) Malkovich is a fast horse at 1000m and likes wet ground. Small query that he hasn’t won first up before but he’s only had a fairly short break and trialled well, as he often does. He’ll cop pressure here from Enthaar out wide, Jigsaw, Free Of Debt and All Banter.

(6) He’s A Balter is flying having won his last four. Beat a good horse in Pandemic last start when leading at an average tempo, but he is versatile and will settle midfield here. He likes heavy ground and could potentially be in the best ground.

Tip: (9) Oxley Road- $6.00 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (6) He’s A Balter- $12.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Oxley Road, 0.25 units WIN He’s A Balter