Racing Tips

Ascot Racing Tips: Sunday, March 7th

Tim Geers previews Sunday’s Supremacy Stakes meeting at Ascot, with three best bets on the card.

by
Tim Geers
7 March 2021

It’s a rare Sunday meeting at Ascot this week after yesterday’s standalone Bunbury Cup meeting.

The Listed Supremacy Stakes headlines the meeting and there looks to be a few decent betting races throughout the card.

The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 10m.

Tim Geers has highlighted his best bets below, which come up in Race 2, Race 3 and Race 6.

Race 1

International Womens Day Mdn (1500m)
4:10pm (AEDT)

Race 1 International Womens Day Mdn (1500m) 4:10pm (AEDT)
1. Bachelor Boy (10) J: Ms Victoria Corver (58kg) T: S J Ryan	51	51	41	41	73	41
2. Mine Detector (3) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham	7	7	7	8	7	7
3. Exonett (9) J: Craig Staples (57kg) T: Garry Hampson	41	41	41	41	45	41
4. Top Pocket (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: Luke Fernie	41	41	51	51	40	41
5. Tumivet (6) J: Mitchell Pateman (57kg) T: Martin Allan	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.8
6. Reciting (8) J: Troy Turner (55kg) T: C H Webster	5.5	5	4.6	5	5.1	4.6
7. Rebel Tail (7) J: Peter Knuckey (55kg) T: Tiarnna Robertson
8. Kazoku (1) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55kg) T: J F Miller	3.8	3.7	3.6	3.8	3.7	3.5
9. Savanik (2) J: Jason Brown (55kg) T: Simon Miller	20	20	21	21	19	21
10. Saint Clements (5) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: Simon Miller	9	8.5	8	8.5	8.5	9
11. False Evidence (11) J: Ryan Hill (55kg) T: Jade Tangaroa	31	34	31	31	28.5	34

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Vale Ron Wells Hcp (C3) (1000m)
4:50pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Vale Ron Wells Hcp (C3) (1000m) 4:50pm (AEDT)
1. King's Authority (7) J: Keshaw Dhurun (61.5kg) T: N D Dellar	11	11	12	12	12.6	12
2. Okina Kuri (1) J: Ms Victoria Corver (61.5kg) T: V A Brockman	19	18	16	16	21.5	16
3. Our Boy Dylan (6) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (60kg) T: N Parker	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.6	4.3	4.4
4. Tovarich (3) J: Ms Madi Derrick (59.5kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	18	19	17	17	21.5	19
5. Holy Ghost (5) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.2	5
6. She's Enchanted (8) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59kg) T: Brett Pope	6.5	6.5	6	6	6.6	6
7. Devine Beast (2) J: Mitchell Pateman (57.5kg) T: Luke Fernie	6	6	6	6	6.2	6.5
8. Excelestial (9) J: Patrick Carbery (57.5kg) T: H S Mclaren	21	21	21	21	23	21
9. Amasenus (10) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: Simon Miller	4	4	4	4	3.95	4
10. Weld (4) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: J G Pike	81	91	81	91	89	81

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

(9) Amasenus was a moral beat last start. She drew barrier 11, was taken back to last, and Chris Parnham used inside runs to come up along the rail in the straight. He was nearly put through the running rail about 300m from home, getting stopped completely in his tracks. He then zoomed home to finish 4th, beaten 1.4L. No doubt in my mind she would have won had she not got chopped in half, so I have to back up on her again today.

(5) Holy Ghost is back to his best this prep, with an eye-catching first up run followed by a terrific effort in defeat last start. That was in the same race as Amasenus. Third up now, which is when he won his only career start to date, drawn to sit a touch closer from barrier 5 and that could be the key.

Tip: (9) Amasenus $3.80 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (5) Holy Ghost $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Amasenus, 1 unit WIN Holy Ghost

Race 3

The Geoff Pratt (Rs0ly) (1200m)
5:30pm (AEDT)

Race 3 The Geoff Pratt (Rs0ly) (1200m) 5:30pm (AEDT)
1. Vane Tempest (8) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (59kg) T: Ms P Kenney	2.1	2.05	2	2.1	2.3	1.95
2. Iseered Iseered (1) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: Luke Fernie
3. Cable Boy (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant	7	7	7	7	7	7
4. North Lane (9) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: F R Kersley	23	26	26	26	27	26
5. Purple Pearl (2) J: Ms Fiona Bell (57kg) T: W J Bradshaw	16	18	17	16	18.4	19
6. Miss Vasari (4) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D L Morton	2.6	2.6	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.7
7. Standout Rose (3) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: B V Watkins	10	11	11	11	10	11
8. Pouakai (6) J: Shaun O'donnell (55kg) T: Ms J Erkelens
9. Blazing Passion (5) J: Ms Lisa Staples (54kg) T: P H Jordan
10. Denzoe (10) J: Ms Michelle Hagley (54kg) T: A W Maley	71	81	81	91	99	81

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 5:32pm (AEDT)

(1) Vane Tempest looks extremely hard to beat here. She’s been terrific this prep. She won easily first up, got butchered second up, ran 2nd to Kissonallforcheeks third up and then won again last start. Kissonallforcheeks won again at Bunbury yesterday and that looks a terrific form line, so there’s no reason she shouldn’t be able to take care of this field here today.

Tip: (1) Vane Tempest $1.92 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Vane Tempest

Race 4

Crown Towers Hcp (C1) (1200m)
6:10pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Crown Towers Hcp (C1) (1200m) 6:10pm (AEDT)
1. Ginger Knight (10) J: Jason Whiting (60kg) T: J G Pike	19	19	19	20	19.8	19
2. Noble Savage (12) J: Mark Forder (60kg) T: M R Forder	51	61	51	51	73	61
3. Trade Master (7) J: Alan Kennedy (60kg) T: E A Martinovich	35	34	31	31	41	41
4. Katona (11) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59.5kg) T: R G Turrell Jnr	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	7	7.5
5. Doowahdiddy (4) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: Martin Allan	4.8	4.8	5	4.8	4.35	5
6. Shooting Shirocco (2) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: Patrick Keating	7.5	7.5	7.5	7.5	8.1	7
7. Hell's Belle (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57.5kg) T: Rhys Radford	3.3	3.2	2.9	3.2	3.4	3.1
8. Regal Dividend (1) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
9. Zadok (5) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: D R Harrison	7	7	7	7	7	7
10. Zip Zam Zoom (8) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: F R Kersley	7	7	7	7	7	7
11. Little Miss Pro (3) J: Keshaw Dhurun (54kg) T: M Santich	46	51	41	41	49	51
12. Rexford (6) J: Troy Turner (54kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	21	21	21	26	19.8	23

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 6:11pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Amelia Park Beef Hcp (C1) (1600m)
6:50pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Amelia Park Beef Hcp (C1) (1600m) 6:50pm (AEDT)
1. Holy Enchantment (11) J: Chris Parnham (60.5kg) T: S J Miller
2. Tick Along (7) J: Mitchell Pateman (59.5kg) T: Brett Pope	9.5	9.5	9.5	10	9.1	9.5
3. Float Our Boat (9) J: Ryan Hill (59kg) T: Tina Glasson	17	17	18	18	18.2	18
4. Lincoln's Law (6) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (59kg) T: S J Miller	2.15	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.05	2.1
5. Broadway Girl (8) J: Shaun O'donnell (58.5kg) T: Ms K Pisconeri	6	6.5	6	6.5	6.7	6
6. Redmill (1) J: Ms Madi Derrick (58.5kg) T: K J Reeves	23	26	21	21	26	26
7. Gin 'N' Swanic (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (58kg) T: D L Morton	10	10	10	10	10.2	10
8. Smoking Barrel (3) J: Steven Parnham (58kg) T: E S Wake	17	18	18	18	15.8	19
9. The Thunderess (2) J: Joseph Azzopardi (57kg) T: L Smith
10. Holyoake (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: Brett Pope	14	16	16	16	13.6	16
11. Fuel The Friar (4) J: Jason Whiting (56kg) T: D R Harrison	13	14	13	12	12.2	15
12. Tabella (12) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54.5kg) T: A H Mortimer	9	9.5	9	9	9.9	9.5

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 6:51pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Tabtouch-Better Your Bet (C3) (1800m)
7:20pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Tabtouch-Better Your Bet (C3) (1800m) 7:20pm (AEDT)
1. Outback Jack (4) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (60.5kg) T: S J Miller	2.9	2.9	2.8	2.8	2.95	2.9
2. Indominus (1) J: Troy Turner (59.5kg) T: C H Webster	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	6	5
3. Interstate (3) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham	9.5	9.5	9	9.5	9.5	9
4. The Last Breeze (11) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59kg) T: Brett Pope	14	15	14	14	13	15
5. Bombardment (6) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham	5.5	5.5	5	5.5	5.1	5
6. Twentythree Red (7) J: Ms Victoria Corver (56.5kg) T: Rhys Radford	6.5	7	7.5	7.5	6.9	7.5
7. Cable Guy (8) J: Chris Graham (56kg) T: M Knox	17	17	16	15	15.8	19
8. Koranis (2) J: Patrick Carbery (56kg) T: Jarrad Noske	17	17	17	17	17.6	18
9. Designer Prince (9) J: Ms Natasha Faithfull (55.5kg) T: B Monteleone	41	41	41	51	49	41
10. Golden Bonney (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54.5kg) T: Patrick Keating	27	31	31	31	31	34
11. Wild Galah (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54kg) T: Ms C Stelmach	27	31	31	31	29.5	34

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 7:21pm (AEDT)

(1) Outback Jack has now won three of his six career starts, placing in two others, and steps up to 1800m now after winning over 1500m last start. He ran 4th over an unsuitable distance first up behind Gemma’s Son, who has come out and won again since, so the form around him looks solid. He carries top weight here but I think he’s the best horse in the race and can win again.

(4) The Last Breeze has a poor draw in 11 but might be ready to go close now third up from a spell. Both career wins have come third up from a spell so after placing last start, he might be able to run a decent race at double figure odds.

Tip: (1) Outback Jack $2.40 Sportsbet

Value: (4) The Last Breeze $16 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Outback Jack, 0.5 units WIN The Last Breeze

Race 7

Supremacy Stakes (1000m)
7:55pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Supremacy Stakes (1000m) 7:55pm (AEDT)
1. Spin The Knife (13) J: Mitchell Pateman (57.5kg) T: Luke Fernie	6	6	6	6	5.1	6
2. Heavenly Waters (3) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: Roy Rogers	6.5	6.5	7	7	7.1	7
3. Policiere (11) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56.5kg) T: D & B Pearce	3.9	3.9	4	4	3.8	4
4. Fatale Femme (1) J: Peter Knuckey (56.5kg) T: S & J Casey	4.8	4.8	4.6	4.8	5.1	4.6
5. Featherweight (10) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: D L Morton	13	12	12	12	12.2	12
6. Forever Autumn (6) J: Paul Harvey (56kg) T: T M Andrews	17	16	15	17	18	15
7. Wuhan Warrior (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (56kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne	14	13	12	15	14.8	12
8. Pixie Chix (9) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55.5kg) T: D R Harrison	10	9.5	9	10	9.8	9
9. Hoi An (12) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: Roy Rogers	19	19	19	20	19.4	19
10. Snippagem (7) J: Chris Nicoll (54kg) T: Roy Rogers	126	126	101	101	131	101
11. Safety Fuse (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (54kg) T: D L Morton	35	41	34	34	38	41
12. Liwa (5) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: Simon Miller	21	26	21	21	22.5	26
13. Come To Me (8) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: D R Harrison

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 7:58pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Flying Colours Rest. (Rs0ly) (1400m)
8:30pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Flying Colours Rest. (Rs0ly) (1400m) 8:30pm (AEDT)
1. Tinsnip (7) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (59kg) T: A G Durrant	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.8	4.35	4.6
2. Tradensia (2) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (59kg) T: M L Lane
3. Invictus Domini (11) J: Mitchell Pateman (58.5kg) T: Adrian Tiver	3	3	2.9	3	3.25	2.9
4. Bruce Almighty (5) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	3.9	3.9	3.9	4.2	3.5	3.8
5. Luke's Choice (3) J: Ms Jerry Noske (57.5kg) T: B M Kay	10	10	10	10	10.8	10
6. Astronomite (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57kg) T: Martin Allan	26	26	26	26	25.5	26
7. Kakadu (4) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57kg) T: V A Brockman	16	17	17	18	16	17
8. Whim Creek (10) J: Ryan Hill (56.5kg) T: N D Dellar	12	12	11	10	13.2	13
9. Caerhelan (9) J: Joseph Azzopardi (54.5kg) T: R W Price	13	13	11	10	14.8	14
10. King Of Judah (8) J: Patrick Carbery (54.5kg) T: Summer Dickson	71	81	61	61	69	71
11. Greco (6) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54kg) T: P R Bamford	21	20	19	21	21.5	19

Odds Last Updated: March 7, 2021, 8:31pm (AEDT)

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.