Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, February 10th

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Looks a race between the top two in the market.

(3) Secret Plan could be one of the next breakout stars from the Peters arsenal. The three-year-old son of I Am Invincible was simply breathtaking on debut back in September, coming from last to charge home in the fastest final 400m of the entire meeting and win. He then stepped up to 1200m and once again ran on strongly from the back of the field, but it was too big a task. The winner of that race was Kissonallforcheeks, with First Law and Sassy Trader finishing 2^nd and 3^rd. Fair to say that form has proved exceptionally strong! He showed absolutely no speed at all in his recent trial, but boy did he show a turn of foot in the straight, powering home to win his heat. Provided he’s not giving them too big a start, he looks the horse to beat.

(1) Triple Missile was another impressive debut winner, his being over 1200m. That was also at Belmont back in September, where he sat back in the small field and ran home strongly to record a 2.2L win. He certainly looks smart but Secret Plan had his measure in a recent trial and Triple Missile also looked a touch green. He might just have bumped into a very smart one here.

Tip: (3) Secret Plan $1.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

(4) Cable Boy had very little luck on debut at Bunbury, held up badly at a crucial part of the straight before getting out and hitting the line hard. He was backed from $19 into $11 on that occasion so clearly they thought he would go well. Jockey change today with CJP taking over from Mitchell Pateman and with even luck he should be in the finish.

(3) Exonett drops back to 1200m after racing over 1400m in his first two starts. He hit the front in the straight last start before being run down. Draws barrier 1 and should be able to sit right on speed. Should give a decent sight.

(10) Ranga Roll is another horse that didn’t have any luck last start. It was a poor steer given he was last in a field of six and instead of coming to the outside he decided to ride for luck, and it didn’t come until the race was all over. Will be suited by the step up to 1200m and should be fighting out the finish.

Tip: (4) Cable Boy $3.70 Sportsbet

Also Backing: (3) Exonett $11

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Cable Boy, 0.5 units WIN Exonett

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Competitive little Class 1 here. (3) The Italian Job returns from a spell today and if he returns in the same shape as he did last prep, he’s going to be hard to beat. He carried 61.5kg to an easy victory at Belmont first up last time in, before failing to go on with it in four subsequent starts. There is some query over the strength of that race he won, but Pike goes on fresh and $5.50 is a decent enough price for me to find out what he’s come back like.

(5) Nuhad looms as the horse to beat. She was brave in defeat last start at Ascot behind the in-form Time To Sizzle. That was in a Graduation Handicap in Saturday grade and she now drops back to a Class 1 on a Wednesday. That was also her first start for new trainer Luke Fernie, and she was only beaten a length after sitting three-wide on a decent speed. If she can get across from the wide gate today, she’ll be very hard to peg back.

(4) Hot Zed came through some strong races before bolting in at Ascot last start. He had things go his way, able to build momentum with the rail out 13m, but it was an impressive victory nonetheless. He should go well again.

(1) Gibraltar Dancer looks way over the odds at $26 to my eye. His run at Bunbury last start was a hidden run and worth forgiving completely. He settled last and was held up literally the entire straight. Prior to that, his first up run behind So Sway at Pinjarra was good and he gets a positive jockey switch today with Shooter McGruddy taking over from Fiona Bell. He’s the knockout chance.

Tip: (3) The Italian Job $5.50 Bet365

Value: (1) Gibraltar Dancer $26 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN The Italian Job, 0.25 units E/W Gibraltar Dancer

Odds Last Updated: February 18, 2021, 10:51am (AEDT)

With the scratching of In The Boat this morning, I’ll be staying out of this race.

(5) Fire Goddess resumes with the blinkers and tongue tie on for the first time and her recent trial behind a couple of handy types was sound. Tactics will be interesting as there looks a fair amount of speed in the race, so I expect from barrier 8 they will ride her cold and try to round them up. $6.00 looks a decent price.

(6) Hot Technique beat Fire Goddess when they met at Northam last preparation. She was about 1.5L off the winner first up and probably raced as if the step up to 1200m will suit. Pike sticks with and she’ll be thereabouts.

(1) Lording had no luck first up in the same race as Hot Technique. The map once again looks a bit tricky here from the wide gate, with speed drawn underneath.

(8) Pure Dynamite continues to race well but keeps finding one too good.

Tip: (5) Fire Goddess $6.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

(11) Spritely Star looks the horse to beat. She ran 2^nd behind the smart Vain Tempest first up at Pinjarra before breaking her maiden at a short quote over 1400m last start. The step up to the mile looks to suit and Pike elects to go with her over the stablemate, who he also rode last start.

(2) Tick Along led and was run down late last start. Gets back up to the mile third up today and he did win third up last prep at this distance. With the rail out 11m, he could take some running down.

The same could be said for (1) Rosso Tempesta who led all the way two starts ago but was unable to repeat the dose at Bunbury last start. Harvey back on and he draws inside Tick Along, so may well be able to hold him out for the lead.

(10) Real Passion next best.

Tip: (11) Spritely Star $2.40 Bet365

Value: (2) Tick Along $8.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Spritely Star, 0.25 units WIN Tick Along

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

The race-fit and in-form (8) Misty Lad might be able to pinch one today. He comes up against a field of horses that either aren’t fit, or are way out of form. He put two wins together at Esperance before running 3^rd here at Ascot last start, where he sat three-wide the trip. He draws ideally in barrier 4 today for Carleen Hefel, who should be able to sit him forward of midfield and from there, he can play a major part.

The favourite (3) Marocchino gets the near-side blinkers on for the first time in an attempt to stop him laying in. Chris Parnham goes on today and his distinct left-hand whip action will be a great benefit to this horse. With that said, he’s the winner of just one race from 16 starts and it’s hard to dive into him at $2.80.

(2) Beaucount might need another run yet but we might see him lead like he usually does today, rather than take a sit like he did last start. If he leads and runs them along with the rail out 11m, he could give some cheek.

(1) Tinsnip has never featured first up but has had three trials leading into this and gets the blinkers on which suggests they’re throwing the kitchen sink at him today.

Tip: (8) Misty Lad $4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Misty Lad

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

(2) Bella’s Idol looks way out of form on paper, but she’s had absolutely nothing go right for about her last four or five starts now. She’s been caught wide, had the saddle slip, got too far back and raced over unsuitable distances. She gets back up in trip today, which is also a slight query as she’s 1500m up to 2100m, but she should be much more effective at this trip. She also draws a gate to sit closer to the speed with no risk of being caught wide. Expect her to go close here.

(11) Upward Others is flying. This is a harder race, stepping up to a 66+ from a Class 3, but he continues to improve with each run this time in. He broke through for a win last start over 2200m at this track, which followed two sound efforts at Pinjarra. He gets in on the minimum here and has a good record at the track and distance, so despite the rise in class, he can be competitive.

(4) Celtic Diva was disappointing last start but can bounce back, while (1) Push To Pass should find this easier.

Tip: (11) Upward Others $6.00 TAB

Also Backing: (2) Bella’s Idol $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Upward Others, 0.5 units WIN Bella's Idol

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

If (5) She’s Enchanted finds the front early here, this will be all over. She’s a Saturday Graduation winner resuming in a midweek Class 3. She should be able to find the front from barrier 4 but with the likes of Tovarich and Madame Concrete in the race, I wouldn’t be surprised if she copped some pressure. I think she’s short enough now with that in mind and the fact she has a 3kg claimer on board.

I was keen on (6) Holy Ghost last week and I’m buttering up again today with $12 available. This is a horse that won 3YO Plate to break his maiden. He didn’t come up in two starts last prep but he won a trial recently and Chris Parnham goes on first up. I think he’s got some ability so at the each way odds, I’ll be getting involved.

(4) Tovarich has won two from three this prep with a luckless 4^th wedged in between. She was comprehensively beaten by She’s Enchanted last prep but she might have come back a better horse this time around. $26 seems a big price.

(2) King’s Authority was very heavily backed last start and was run down late. He has a tendency to do that, with 11 2nds and just two wins from 42 starts. He will be hitting the line hard.

Tip: (6) Holy Ghost E/W $12 Bet365

Value: (4) Tovarich $26 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Holy Ghost, 0.25 units E/W Tovarich

Odds Last Updated: February 25, 2021, 11:21am (AEDT)

(1) Downforce is racing in terrific form. He dropped down to a 54+ Class 3 over 1200m two starts ago and came from the clouds to land some big bets. He then stepped back up in grade to a 66+ on a Saturday and ran 3^rd behind Excellent Dream and Weaponson. Weaponson has since come out of that race and been beaten a pimple last Saturday at Pinjarra, so the form is clearly holding up. Downforce now drops back to a 54+ Class 3 again, this time over 1400m and with slightly more weight, but he should prove hard to beat if they can run on from the back.

(3) Sheikh It is two from two and looks to keep his unbeaten record intact here. He comes into this first up without a public trial, but that’s not unusual for this stable. No knock on him.

(5) Trump This and (6) Yulong Earth not hopeless.

Tip: (1) Downforce $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Downforce

Odds Last Updated: February 11, 2021, 1:46am (AEDT)

Absolutely nothing I want to back in this race.

(12) See Ya Champ is a horse I’ve backed five times this prep and have had no result. Last start looked her race, she was heavily backed and failed to fire, so I’m off today even though we’re getting $13 which on face value is an acceptable price. Barrier 2 and rail out 11m not suitable for her racing pattern though.

That’s the only horse I could entertain but happy to sit out of this trainwreck.

Tip: (12) See Ya Champ $13 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet