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Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 24th

It’s a big nine-race card at Ascot for midweek racing in WA and Tim Geers has previewed every race with his tips and betting strategy below.

ascot-racecourse

It’s a big nine-race card at Ascot for midweek racing in WA, with the first set to jump at 12.30pm local time (3.30pm AEDT).

The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail all the way out at the 16m position, with a cutaway in the home straight.

Tim Geers has previewed all nine races with his tips and betting strategy. His best bet comes up in Race 3, with his best value in Race 2.

Find his preview and analysis below!

Best Bet: Race 3 – (9) Electric Rose (save Almaher Man)

Best Value: Race 2 – (8) Plemont

0

Race 1

Morley Growers Market (Rs0ly) (1000m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

Race 1

Morley Growers Market (Rs0ly) (1000m)
3:30pm (AEDT)

1. Savage One (6) J: Mitchell Pateman (60kg) T: A G Durrant
2. Strike (1) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (60kg) T: C & M Gangemi
6.56.5665.56
3. Divine Pair (3) J: Peter Knuckey (58.5kg) T: C H Webster
1.81.851.81.81.861.85
4. How's The Serenity (5) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: Simon Miller
3.73.844.23.954
5. Critical Altitude (2) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
10109.5109.710
6. Wunderkind (4) J: Brad Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
1716161717.816
7. Choix De Lace (7) J: Jason Brown (55kg) T: J P Taylor
1819181719.821

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Tricky race to kick off with.

(4) How’s The Serenity resumes off a good trial win, which was the third-fastest 1000m heat of the day. Pike goes straight on first up and the stable is flying, so at the prices, that’s the way I’d be leaning.

(3) Divine Pair was an eye-catcher first up from a spell behind Our Boy Dylan. That was in a 3YO Handicap and he drops back to an easier race today. A repeat of that run would see him awfully hard to beat here.

(5) Critical Altitude has trialled well enough, while (1) Strike is on debut in WA and this stable can get them ready fresh when they buy them from over East.

Tip: (4) How’s The Serenity $3.90 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN How's The Serenity

0

Race 2

Glenroy Chaff (Rs0mw) (1100m)
4:07pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Glenroy Chaff (Rs0mw) (1100m)
4:07pm (AEDT)

1. Secret Lair (3) J: William Pike (57kg) T: D & B Pearce
3.13.13.132.93.1
2. I'm Not For Sale (5) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: C H Webster
515161716961
3. Elite Fighter (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57kg) T: Holly Taylor
1718192118.619
4. Kentucky Blue (6) J: Steven Parnham (57kg) T: N D Parnham
5. Prince Of Guelph (8) J: Ms Simone Altieri (57kg) T: Ms K Farrell
718161619181
6. Flying Missile (2) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
1.51.51.51.51.541.45
7. Rising Commodity (4) J: Brad Parnham (55kg) T: Simon Miller
2021212626.521
8. Plemont (7) J: Patrick Carbery (55kg) T: F R Kersley
1719191818.621

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

(6) Flying Missile looks the obvious choice here and the $1.35 reflects that. She ran 3rd on debut in the Crystal Slipper, was then a moral beat at her second start behind Ultimate Command, before being outgunned by Policiere last time we saw her. She just has to turn up to win this.

One at big odds to include is (8) Plemont who has trialled very nicely on two occasions leading into this. Her first trial was behind Pat’s Got Sass and Policiere, who were about 7L clear of her, but she made nice ground in behind. She then trialled well again down the Pinjarra straight. Expecting a good run from her on debut.

(2) I’m Not For Sale started $11 on debut and was trapped three-wide the trip behind Pat’s Got Sass. Suddenly he is $61 here. Forgive him for that debut.

(1) Secret Lair has form behind He’s Gold, who has since come out and won again. Draws well and Pike goes on so has to be respected.

Tip: (6) Flying Missile $1.35 Bet365

Value: (8) Plemont $19/$4.80 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units PLACE Plemont

0

Race 3

Tabtouch Better Bet (Rs0mw) (1100m)
4:42pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Tabtouch Better Bet (Rs0mw) (1100m)
4:42pm (AEDT)

1. Almaher Man (8) J: Troy Turner (57kg) T: F R Kersley
3.23.13.23.43.23.1
2. Warpipes (9) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: D L Morton
8.58.58.59.59.48
3. Ain't No Other Man (2) J: Jordan Turner (57kg) T: S & J Casey
7.587.577.87.5
4. Passion For War (10) J: Ryan Hill (57kg) T: P H Jordan
5. Vital Gem (4) J: Ms Victoria Corver (57kg) T: E D Philp
81101101151101126
6. Extorio (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (55kg) T: M Santich
262621262626
7. Awesome Rival (5) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (55kg) T: Daniel O'connor
7.57.577.57.67
8. Tiny'n'tuff (6) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55kg) T: D M Luciani
415161616961
9. Electric Rose (7) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: N D Parnham
4.84.854.84.755
10. Kempy Gold (1) J: William Pike (55kg) T: Simon Miller
4.54.64.44.64.35

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

Going to keep this pretty simple.

(1) Almaher Man made a nice debut behind He’s Gold at Ascot, and He’s Gold then came out a week later and won again. He did draw barrier 1 on that occasion and had a nice run throughout, so barrier 8 makes things a little more interesting today, but with any improvement off that run he would be hard to beat.

I thought the trial of (9) Electric Rose was exceptional, sitting three-wide throughout before making a quick move around the leaders on the turn. She was in cruise control down the straight and had more on her rivals than the 0.2L margin might suggest. Chris Parnham jumps off the Dan Morton horse to ride this, and I suspect she will go very well.

(2) Warpipes and (10) Kempy Gold next best.

Backing Electric Rose and saving on Almaher Man.

Tip: (9) Electric Rose $5.50 Bet365

Saver: (1) Almaher Man $2.25 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Electric Rose, 1 unit WIN Almaher Man

0

Race 4

Crown Towers Mdn (1200m)
5:17pm (AEDT)

Race 4

Crown Towers Mdn (1200m)
5:17pm (AEDT)

1. Rag 'N' Boneman (6) J: Jordan Turner (58kg) T: A F Beckett
343434343334
2. Parabolic (9) J: Jason Whiting (58kg) T: Ms J Mitchell
354141343941
3. Missile (2) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham
3.43.33.23.63.33.1
4. The Fibonacci (7) J: Brad Parnham (57kg) T: C & M Gangemi
5. Famous Jurney (4) J: Jason Brown (57kg) T: J P Taylor
3.33.33.23.43.553.5
6. Flicka's Chance (3) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (57kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
1617161614.417
7. Let's Cut Loose (5) J: William Pike (55kg) T: Simon Miller
2.72.72.52.62.552.7
8. Mia Nobile (1) J: Ryan Hill (55kg) T: G N Davies
1716171618.217
9. Red Cadillac (8) J: Chris Nicoll (55kg) T: P V Morley
2626312626.526

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

The favourite (3) Missile will be hard to beat here off some nice trials, but it’s interesting to note he has a bar plate on one foot, which is apparently normal for him.

I was with (5) Famous Jurney first up but he settled a lot further back than I had anticipated and then ran home strongly into 5th, beaten 1.35L. He was well backed for that race and I think he’s come back well. From barrier 4, hopefully they try and settle much closer to the speed. He should be going close in this.

(7) Let’s Cut Loose is another for the Simon Miller team with William Pike booked to ride. She comes into this off a winning trial at Pinjarra and gets the blinkers on for the first time. No surprise to see her go close.

Tip: (5) Famous Jurney $3.85 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Famous Jurney

0

Race 5

Amelia Park Lodge Hcp (C3) (1200m)
5:54pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Amelia Park Lodge Hcp (C3) (1200m)
5:54pm (AEDT)

1. Kennedy (8) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (60.5kg) T: D R Pateman
1313131415.213
2. Beau Zoom (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham
2.22.22.22.32.252.15
3. Carabinier (4) J: Ryan Hill (58.5kg) T: P H Jordan
4. Excelestial (2) J: Patrick Carbery (57kg) T: H S Mclaren
1414141412.814
5. Classic Magnus (6) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: L Smith
4.24.24.24.24.154.2
6. Pure Dynamite (10) J: Steven Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
7. Reaction (9) J: Jason Whiting (55.5kg) T: D J Waldock
1817161616.818
8. Zaalah (5) J: Brad Parnham (55.5kg) T: Simon Miller
6.56.566.56.56
9. Blazing Passion (1) J: Ms Lisa Staples (55kg) T: P H Jordan
1110101211.210
10. Trade Prize (7) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: Campbell Mccallum
1819171617.419

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

It looks a nice race for (2) Beau Zoom second up on the four-day back-up. He raced on Saturday, where he was beaten 3.3L by Amasenus. He was there until about the 150m mark where he probably just got tired, which is understandable given he went into that first up without a trial. Up to 1200m now, drawn well and the apprentice goes on, so it looks a nice set up.

(8) Zaalah had a bit of an odd preparation last time, breaking her maiden over 1700m before rising to 2200m and then dropping to 1400m. She resumes with one trial under the belt here, fresh over 1200m. The stable is flying and if they’ve trained her to run over the shorter distances this time in, it wouldn’t shock me to see her run very well first up.

Pike goes on (5) Classic Magnus for Lindsey Smith. She ran last first up at Bunbury, but she does have a victory over Vane Tempest second up last prep, which is decent form. Can improve sharply.

Tip: (2) Beau Zoom $2.00 Bet365

Saver: (8) Zaalah $6.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Beau Zoom, 0.5 units WIN Zaalah

0

Race 6

Western Racepix (Rs0ly) (1000m)
6:34pm (AEDT)

Race 6

Western Racepix (Rs0ly) (1000m)
6:34pm (AEDT)

1. Danny George (8) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Brett Pope
8.58.58.58.58.68.5
2. Pablo's Poem (2) J: Keshaw Dhurun (59kg) T: S & J Casey
8.58.5998.99
3. Okina Kuri (1) J: Ms Victoria Corver (58.5kg) T: V A Brockman
262621343121
4. Super Ex (3) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (57kg) T: Luke Fernie
4.44.44.44.64.14.4
5. Fiery Water (6) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant
54.64.455.14
6. Stable Secret (4) J: Ms Sasha Starley (56.5kg) T: B P Graham
273434343534
7. Blankenberge (5) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: Brock Lewthwaite
8.58.58.58.58.88.5
8. City Circle (9) J: Chris Parnham (55.5kg) T: N D Parnham
3.94443.754
9. Mcedith (7) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich
99.5999.210

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 6:36pm (AEDT)

Looks a fair bit of speed on here.

(8) City Circle comes up with an awful draw and may get planted three-wide the trip again, which I’m hoping doesn’t happen. She doesn’t win out of turn but her turn is coming. She was good behind Cuballing and Holy Ghost three starts ago, struck an unsuitable soft track at Bunbury two back, and then ran 4th to River Beau last start after sitting wide throughout. She has a good record at this track and distance and with any luck at all, she’ll be right in the finish.

(5) Fiery Water resumes from a spell with one trial under the belt. He won first up last prep and definitely has the ability to win this.

(4) Super Ex is also first up with one quiet trial leading into today. He can either lead or take a sit from barrier 3, so it will be interesting to see the early tactics between him and Fiery Water as to who might lead.

Tip: (8) City Circle $4.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN City Circle

0

Race 7

All Flags Signs & Banners (C3) (1600m)
7:10pm (AEDT)

Race 7

All Flags Signs & Banners (C3) (1600m)
7:10pm (AEDT)

1. Great Waters (7) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: Martin Allan
65.55.56.565
2. Combat Ready (5) J: Mark Forder (57.5kg) T: M R Forder
3131343429.534
3. Unending (10) J: Troy Turner (57.5kg) T: C H Webster
1716141618.613
4. Al Magico (8) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (56kg) T: J M Bowtell
2121212118.823
5. Daring Soleil (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: Brett Pope
5.55.55.565.65.5
6. Koranis (1) J: Keshaw Dhurun (56kg) T: Jarrad Noske
3.13.23.133.13.4
7. Regent Star (6) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: Mark Wright
1818171620.519
8. Scintillating (2) J: Brad Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham
101010109.210
9. Street Fair (4) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: Brett Pope
4.64.54.44.84.354.4
10. I'm A Love Man (11) J: Chris Graham (54kg) T: Brian Rogers
126126101101131126
11. Praying With God (9) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: Ms S L Miller
313434343534

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 7:11pm (AEDT)

Tricky race. (1) Great Waters resumes over the mile today without a public trial. He won first up over 1400m at Belmont last prep with a similar lead up, so that’s not much of a concern, but he’s probably a bit better with some cut out of the ground. He gets in well enough at the weights to win this so he goes on top.

(3) Unending was good first up at Bunbury and then plain last start, but she always runs poorly second up. She can bounce back third up on her home track. She ran 2nd at her only start at this track and distance.

(5) Daring Soleil was good winning here two starts ago, but offered very little last start. It was probably hard to make ground at Bunbury on that occasion so I’d forgive her for that.

(9) Street Fair is the stablemate of Daring Soleil and Pike goes on second up today. He has four wins from 11 rides for the stable so that’s a good lead.

Tip: (1) Great Waters $4.20 TopSport

Value: (3) Unending $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Great Waters, 0.5 units WIN Unending

0

Race 8

Iron Jack Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:45pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Iron Jack Hcp (C3) (1200m)
7:45pm (AEDT)

1. Prevailing Winds (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (61.5kg) T: C & M Gangemi
998.59.58.78
2. Holy Ghost (2) J: Steven Parnham (59kg) T: N D Parnham
3.63.73.53.73.63.9
3. Noble Reflection (9) J: Patrick Carbery (59kg) T: Simon Miller
161717161619
4. Hot Technique (8) J: William Pike (57.5kg) T: D & B Pearce
1515131316.815
5. Kaptain Kaos (1) J: Chris Parnham (57kg) T: Michael Grantham
1.851.851.81.751.861.9
6. American Queen (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant
181716212114
7. Wardian (7) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: F R Kersley
1921192121.519
8. Power And Passion (10) J: Ryan Hill (55.5kg) T: P H Jordan
9. Bon Voyage (4) J: Peter Knuckey (54kg) T: M W Bairstow
1011019191121101
10. Keeper's Tale (3) J: Jason Whiting (54kg) T: K J Mifflin
273131312834

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

Good little contest coming up in this one. (2) Holy Ghost really finds a suitable race. He’s been racing very well without much luck all prep, and he now drops from a 66+ to a Class 3 midweek race. He also gets up to 1200m, which is probably what he’s looking for now. He’s just been getting too far back and on other occasions held up at crucial stages. With any luck he can win.

(5) Kaptain Kaos does look his biggest danger after a dominant maiden win at Bunbury first up. He draws well in barrier 1 and looks to get the run of the race in behind the leaders. Chris Parnahm sticks with him and he’ll be hard to hold out. This is a big step up in grade from what he beat though.

(6) American Queen comes off a win at Narrogin and can be included at double figure odds and (7) Wardian is another at double figures that has some ability.

Tip: (2) Holy Ghost $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Holy Ghost

0

Race 9

Schweppes Hcp (C1) (2200m)
8:20pm (AEDT)

Race 9

Schweppes Hcp (C1) (2200m)
8:20pm (AEDT)

1. Bruny Island (7) J: Chris Nicoll (60kg) T: C R Scoby-Smith
414134315141
2. Crezee (5) J: Peter Hall (60kg) T: H S Mclaren
777.57.56.77
3. Final Chill (14) J: William Pike (60kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh
5.55.54.85.55.75
4. Go It Alone (12) J: Brad Rawiller (60kg) T: L Smith
3.63.73.63.73.83.8
5. Top Trade (3) J: Chris Parnham (60kg) T: Michael Grantham
1818171718.819
6. Frequent Friar (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (59.5kg) T: J T Warwick
7.57.576.57.47
7. Bonjour Noir (8) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (59kg) T: F R Kersley
414126264141
8. Run Like Fire (10) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (59kg) T: Ms J Clements
313431313341
9. Warcidium (4) J: Troy Turner (59kg) T: F R Kersley
1213121210.414
10. Smoking Barrel (11) J: Laqdar Ramoly (58kg) T: E S Wake
1212101011.812
11. Pasaran (15) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (57.5kg) T: Brett Pope
273126263134
12. Reveuse (1) J: Steven Parnham (56.5kg) T: S V Vahala
9.5109.59.58.710
13. Royal Choisir (9) J: Jason Whiting (54.5kg) T: Vaughn Sigley
2731262628.531
14. Shivers Of Joy (2) J: Unknown (54.5kg) T: D R Couper
15. Luc's Star (13) J: Unknown (54kg) T: Tina Glasson

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 8:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Go It Alone was sound first up from a 70-week spell over 1800m. He was beaten 0.85L and should improve off that. Up to 2200m now and draws barrier 12, so tactics will be interesting. He was slow out of the gates first up, but on debut at Warrnambool he led. This isn’t a strong race so he can be very competitive.

(5) Top Trade wasn’t fully tested first up, with a tendency to lay in under pressure. The apprentice goes off and Chris Parnham goes on, which is a big jockey change. Draws well in barrier 3 and can go better at $15, despite the poor winning strike rate.

(2) Crezee won an awful race last start but really appreciated the step up in distance. The horse that ran 4th in that race did come out and win so he can be competitive at $7.50.

Tip: (4) Go It Alone $4.80 Ladbrokes

Value: (5) Top Trade $15 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Go It Alone, 0.5 units WIN Top Trade

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.

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