Ascot Racing Tips: Wednesday, March 24th

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 3:31pm (AEDT)

Tricky race to kick off with.

(4) How’s The Serenity resumes off a good trial win, which was the third-fastest 1000m heat of the day. Pike goes straight on first up and the stable is flying, so at the prices, that’s the way I’d be leaning.

(3) Divine Pair was an eye-catcher first up from a spell behind Our Boy Dylan. That was in a 3YO Handicap and he drops back to an easier race today. A repeat of that run would see him awfully hard to beat here.

(5) Critical Altitude has trialled well enough, while (1) Strike is on debut in WA and this stable can get them ready fresh when they buy them from over East.

Tip: (4) How’s The Serenity $3.90 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN How's The Serenity

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 4:11pm (AEDT)

(6) Flying Missile looks the obvious choice here and the $1.35 reflects that. She ran 3^rd on debut in the Crystal Slipper, was then a moral beat at her second start behind Ultimate Command, before being outgunned by Policiere last time we saw her. She just has to turn up to win this.

One at big odds to include is (8) Plemont who has trialled very nicely on two occasions leading into this. Her first trial was behind Pat’s Got Sass and Policiere, who were about 7L clear of her, but she made nice ground in behind. She then trialled well again down the Pinjarra straight. Expecting a good run from her on debut.

(2) I’m Not For Sale started $11 on debut and was trapped three-wide the trip behind Pat’s Got Sass. Suddenly he is $61 here. Forgive him for that debut.

(1) Secret Lair has form behind He’s Gold, who has since come out and won again. Draws well and Pike goes on so has to be respected.

Tip: (6) Flying Missile $1.35 Bet365

Value: (8) Plemont $19/$4.80 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units PLACE Plemont

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 4:46pm (AEDT)

Going to keep this pretty simple.

(1) Almaher Man made a nice debut behind He’s Gold at Ascot, and He’s Gold then came out a week later and won again. He did draw barrier 1 on that occasion and had a nice run throughout, so barrier 8 makes things a little more interesting today, but with any improvement off that run he would be hard to beat.

I thought the trial of (9) Electric Rose was exceptional, sitting three-wide throughout before making a quick move around the leaders on the turn. She was in cruise control down the straight and had more on her rivals than the 0.2L margin might suggest. Chris Parnham jumps off the Dan Morton horse to ride this, and I suspect she will go very well.

(2) Warpipes and (10) Kempy Gold next best.

Backing Electric Rose and saving on Almaher Man.

Tip: (9) Electric Rose $5.50 Bet365

Saver: (1) Almaher Man $2.25 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.25 units WIN Electric Rose, 1 unit WIN Almaher Man

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 5:21pm (AEDT)

The favourite (3) Missile will be hard to beat here off some nice trials, but it’s interesting to note he has a bar plate on one foot, which is apparently normal for him.

I was with (5) Famous Jurney first up but he settled a lot further back than I had anticipated and then ran home strongly into 5^th, beaten 1.35L. He was well backed for that race and I think he’s come back well. From barrier 4, hopefully they try and settle much closer to the speed. He should be going close in this.

(7) Let’s Cut Loose is another for the Simon Miller team with William Pike booked to ride. She comes into this off a winning trial at Pinjarra and gets the blinkers on for the first time. No surprise to see her go close.

Tip: (5) Famous Jurney $3.85 Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Famous Jurney

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 5:56pm (AEDT)

It looks a nice race for (2) Beau Zoom second up on the four-day back-up. He raced on Saturday, where he was beaten 3.3L by Amasenus. He was there until about the 150m mark where he probably just got tired, which is understandable given he went into that first up without a trial. Up to 1200m now, drawn well and the apprentice goes on, so it looks a nice set up.

(8) Zaalah had a bit of an odd preparation last time, breaking her maiden over 1700m before rising to 2200m and then dropping to 1400m. She resumes with one trial under the belt here, fresh over 1200m. The stable is flying and if they’ve trained her to run over the shorter distances this time in, it wouldn’t shock me to see her run very well first up.

Pike goes on (5) Classic Magnus for Lindsey Smith. She ran last first up at Bunbury, but she does have a victory over Vane Tempest second up last prep, which is decent form. Can improve sharply.

Tip: (2) Beau Zoom $2.00 Bet365

Saver: (8) Zaalah $6.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Beau Zoom, 0.5 units WIN Zaalah

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 6:36pm (AEDT)

Looks a fair bit of speed on here.

(8) City Circle comes up with an awful draw and may get planted three-wide the trip again, which I’m hoping doesn’t happen. She doesn’t win out of turn but her turn is coming. She was good behind Cuballing and Holy Ghost three starts ago, struck an unsuitable soft track at Bunbury two back, and then ran 4^th to River Beau last start after sitting wide throughout. She has a good record at this track and distance and with any luck at all, she’ll be right in the finish.

(5) Fiery Water resumes from a spell with one trial under the belt. He won first up last prep and definitely has the ability to win this.

(4) Super Ex is also first up with one quiet trial leading into today. He can either lead or take a sit from barrier 3, so it will be interesting to see the early tactics between him and Fiery Water as to who might lead.

Tip: (8) City Circle $4.00 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN City Circle

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 7:11pm (AEDT)

Tricky race. (1) Great Waters resumes over the mile today without a public trial. He won first up over 1400m at Belmont last prep with a similar lead up, so that’s not much of a concern, but he’s probably a bit better with some cut out of the ground. He gets in well enough at the weights to win this so he goes on top.

(3) Unending was good first up at Bunbury and then plain last start, but she always runs poorly second up. She can bounce back third up on her home track. She ran 2^nd at her only start at this track and distance.

(5) Daring Soleil was good winning here two starts ago, but offered very little last start. It was probably hard to make ground at Bunbury on that occasion so I’d forgive her for that.

(9) Street Fair is the stablemate of Daring Soleil and Pike goes on second up today. He has four wins from 11 rides for the stable so that’s a good lead.

Tip: (1) Great Waters $4.20 TopSport

Value: (3) Unending $11 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Great Waters, 0.5 units WIN Unending

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 7:46pm (AEDT)

Good little contest coming up in this one. (2) Holy Ghost really finds a suitable race. He’s been racing very well without much luck all prep, and he now drops from a 66+ to a Class 3 midweek race. He also gets up to 1200m, which is probably what he’s looking for now. He’s just been getting too far back and on other occasions held up at crucial stages. With any luck he can win.

(5) Kaptain Kaos does look his biggest danger after a dominant maiden win at Bunbury first up. He draws well in barrier 1 and looks to get the run of the race in behind the leaders. Chris Parnahm sticks with him and he’ll be hard to hold out. This is a big step up in grade from what he beat though.

(6) American Queen comes off a win at Narrogin and can be included at double figure odds and (7) Wardian is another at double figures that has some ability.

Tip: (2) Holy Ghost $3.70 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Holy Ghost

Odds Last Updated: March 24, 2021, 8:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Go It Alone was sound first up from a 70-week spell over 1800m. He was beaten 0.85L and should improve off that. Up to 2200m now and draws barrier 12, so tactics will be interesting. He was slow out of the gates first up, but on debut at Warrnambool he led. This isn’t a strong race so he can be very competitive.

(5) Top Trade wasn’t fully tested first up, with a tendency to lay in under pressure. The apprentice goes off and Chris Parnham goes on, which is a big jockey change. Draws well in barrier 3 and can go better at $15, despite the poor winning strike rate.

(2) Crezee won an awful race last start but really appreciated the step up in distance. The horse that ran 4^th in that race did come out and win so he can be competitive at $7.50.

Tip: (4) Go It Alone $4.80 Ladbrokes

Value: (5) Top Trade $15 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Go It Alone, 0.5 units WIN Top Trade