Ballarat Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 19th

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 12:27pm (AEDT)

Fairly average maiden to start the day. (6) Cru Classe has the least convictions and was okay late on debut at Horsham. By Reliable Man, the extra trip will suit, but he might want even further than the 1500m.

(4) Kwahadi has at least run two placings on heavy ground, one at this T/D, but he’s had 18 starts, has an apprentice on here, ran 7th first up and is 2nd pick in the market which tells you all you need to know about this race.

 

Tip: (6) Cru Classe- $2.25 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 1:02pm (AEDT)

The form of (3) Crazy Ladies does jump off the page, given she ran well in a pair of fairly strong 2yo city races last prep, finishing 2nd to Telluride on debut and 7th, beaten 4.6L to Arcaded the start after. By Snitzel the wet ground shouldn’t be a problem but she’s definitely not value at $1.80 and I expect she’ll get out.

(2) Hundred Proof was given no hope on debut when back and wide without cover behind I Am In The Mood. That form has been a touch shaky, with the winner failing in Adelaide since, although that was obviously much stronger than a Wednesday maiden. She gets Kah on from barrier 1 which should see improvement.

(1) Savvy Sovereign is on debut and has jumped out fairly well. He won’t have to be a star to win this and draws nicely with Mcneil taking the ride.

Again, not a stack of interest in the $1.80 for Crazy Ladies. I’d want $2.40 to get interested but not sure she’ll get out that far. With no third dividend it’s tough to back Hundred Proof to run a place.

Tip: (2) Hundred Proof- $8.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 1:37pm (AEDT)

(7) Sabaku goes on top. All three runs last prep were solid, including a close up finish to All Banter which reads well. All three were on soft tracks and she looked to handle it fine. The two trials have been solid enough and she gets a soft run from barrier 3.

I wanted to find (9) Swinging Sixties as a 2yo against the older horses, but I didn’t see enough in the Caulfield jumpout last week to entertain a bet at $5. He was given a quiet time and trailed off at the back a bit late which is hard to gauge.

(6) Rose Cuvee has the best wet track form in the field, although both heavy track placings were big margins from the winner.

(2) Halvoya next best.

Tip: (7) Sabaku- $2.70 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Sabaku

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 2:12pm (AEDT)

Much better contest, and I’m keen to be with the up and running (1) Continuance who is going to take plenty of running down. She was well backed at The Bool and didn’t disappoint, leading all the way to win by 1.5L to beat an impressive maiden winner in Mckeever, with big gaps back through the field. She’s adept on wet tracks and with the run under her belt she can a couple of fresh horses into the ground.

(9) Night Of Delight ran well as a 2yo on soft 7 tracks. Her form last prep without winning was solid, the key piece of form a solid 4th to Zoushine at Caulfield at $11.

(3) Twist Of Fury basically crossed the line with Night Of Delight in that race when starting $3 in the market. There’s not much between them, but Twist Of Fury does look short enough at $3.10 first up, despite liking soft tracks and getting Kah from barrier 3.

Very happy to be with Continuance. She’s got 61kg but the first up win was very good and she’s got fitness over these.

Tip: (1) Continuance- $3.70 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Continuance

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 2:47pm (AEDT)

Keen again on L Smith with (6) Sacred Palace who should’ve won first up at The Bool in a fairly average steer. He drew wide and stayed wide but was still held up in the straight, ducking back to the inside and only missing by 0.9L. He recorded the race fastest 800/600/400/200m and was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the last furlong. Olly keeps the ride, he draws barrier 2 and with even luck he should be atoning.

Stablemate (1) Lido Beach has to be some hope. He ran in a stronger race at The Bool, two days later. He was given every hope and finished 2.5L off Ocular but the wide draw hurts and Tatum Bull is going to have to produce a great ride to slot in without getting too far back.

(14) She’s Booming walked in with her maiden at start 2. Faces a wet track and draws the carpark which is a query, and it wouldn’t shock to see her come out.

(13) Lucky Sham next best.

Tip: (6) Sacred Palace- $2.80 at Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Sacred Palace

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 3:22pm (AEDT)

(3) Flickitova is coming out of a strong race behind Blue Ocean and Excelman. He started $5.50 there and should’ve finished closer when held up late. Up to 2000m looks to suit but the draw is sticky.

(4) Billy Mav started $41 last start but was desperately unlucky coming from a long way back on a day that was difficult to make ground. He has seen 2000m in NZ and looks ready for the trip now. He draws much better and likes wet ground, which has me leaning his way.

(7) Chapel Lane started $61 at The Bool but ran well. He handles wet ground and is going well.

(12) Sir Marengo drops in trip from 2350m at The Bool and wasn’t beaten far by Sign Seal Deliver which is strong form. Likes wet ground although barrier one could be sticky.

 

Tough race but I’m backing Billy Mav and making Flickitova a very small result.

Tip: (4) Billy Mav- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Saver: (3) Flickitova- $6.10 at Sportsbetting

Betting Strategy: 0.75 units WIN Billy Mav, 0.25 units WIN Flickitova

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 3:57pm (AEDT)

(9) Chief Altony ran well against the bias for 2nd first up behind Corner Pocket, who has won again since. He’s run well enough in easier grade on a soft 7, but my query here is the map and how far back he’ll get.

(4) Stardayz loves wet ground and maps much better. Has to take on the boys here but gets the 3kg claim from barrier 3. Will have a big head start on the favourite and might keep kicking, especially as Ballarat has been playing on speed lately, although the heavy track might change that.

(10) Stuchbree Stamp finished last and dropped out first up. He did bolt in on debut on a heavy 10 and did beat Chief Altony when they met, although Chief Altony was held up and should’ve won, whilst Stuchbree Stamp led on the rails and fell in.

(12) Deserved will get over further but likes wet ground and goes well first up.

Tip: (4) Stardayz- $6.50 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W Stardayz

Odds Last Updated: May 19, 2021, 4:32pm (AEDT)

Tough finish. (5) Tadashi Hamada was slowly away at The Bool and given no hope, only getting to run on late, which he did well. The run first up was good but again he was slowly away. He’s progressive and I think the 1600m will suit but he needs to get out of the barriers.

(1) Garimpeiro just missed at Donald first up. His best is easily good enough but he’s very hit and miss and has never placed 2nd up.

(2) Spring Break won well last start when wide the trip. Barrier 14 here hurts but maybe they roll the dice and go forward again.

(3) Regal Effort next best.

Would need to see them running on out wide before entertaining Tadashi Hamada, because he keeps missing the start and leaving too much ground to make up.

Tip: (5) Tadashi Hamada- $5.00 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: No Bet