Racing Tips

Belmont Racing Tips: Saturday, July 17th

Tim Geers highlights his best bets on Belmont Classic day in WA.

by
Tim Geers
16 July 2021

Winter racing continues at Belmont in WA on Saturday, where conditions have been very soggy for the past couple of weeks.

The track has come up a heavy 9 but the rail moves back to the true position, which is fresh ground.

The feature of the day is the Listed Belmont Classic, which is Race 5 on the card.

Tim Geers has picked out his best bets of the day below, betting in Race 3, Race 5, Race 8 and Race 9.

Best Bet: Race 9 – (2) The Spruiker

Best Value: Race 8 – (1) London Miss

Race 1

Free Entry To Belmont Park 2Yo (1200m)
2:07pm (AEDT)

Race 1 Free Entry To Belmont Park 2Yo (1200m) 2:07pm (AEDT)
1. Storm Commander (7) J: Chris Parnham (58kg) T: N D Parnham	2.5	2.45	2.5	2.6	2.45	2.4
2. Guard The Safe (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58kg) T: F R Kersley	11	11	11	11	10.8	11
3. Toppa The Mountain (6) J: Paul Harvey (58kg) T: D L Morton	11	11	9.5	11	11.2	10
4. Gorgeous Gossip (5) J: Ms Lisa Staples (56kg) T: P H Jordan	23	26	31	26	26.5	26
5. Forever Autumn (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: T M Andrews	5.5	5	5	5	5.5	5
6. My Boy Chris (3) J: Joseph Azzopardi (56kg) T: Daniel O'connor	21	21	26	21	20	21
7. Knot Secret (4) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56kg) T: S J Wolfe	4	4	3.7	4	3.95	3.8
8. Born To Be Lucky (9) J: Shaun O'donnell (54kg) T: J N Pateman	23	21	26	21	24	23
9. She's Artie (8) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: A W Maley	34	34	34	34	33	34

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 2:11pm (AEDT)

Race 2

Tabtouch Westspeed (Rs0mw) (1000m)
2:47pm (AEDT)

Race 2 Tabtouch Westspeed (Rs0mw) (1000m) 2:47pm (AEDT)
1. Express Time (5) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: N D Parnham	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.2	3.15	3.2
2. Bedouin Belle (1) J: William Pike (58.5kg) T: L P Luciani	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.8	4.45	4.6
3. Snippy Miss (3) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (58kg) T: A G Durrant	4	4	3.8	3.9	4.45	3.8
4. City Circle (9) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: N D Parnham	10	9.5	10	11	8.9	9
5. Dark City (8) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Ms A King	11	11	10	11	9.6	11
6. Indigo Wild (7) J: Ms Madi Derrick (55.5kg) T: J N Pateman	14	13	13	13	10.2	15
7. She's Vital (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55.5kg) T: Fenella Martin	71	67	61	81	67	71
8. Advocator (2) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54.5kg) T: F R Kersley	9.5	9.5	9.5	10	9.4	9
9. Looks Like Magic (6) J: Shaun O'donnell (54.5kg) T: B H Hyde	61	51	51	61	61	51

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 2:51pm (AEDT)

Race 3

Glenroy Chaff (Bm66+) (1000m)
3:23pm (AEDT)

Race 3 Glenroy Chaff (Bm66+) (1000m) 3:23pm (AEDT)
1. Captain Kink (6) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (60.5kg) T: Brett Pope	4.2	4.2	3.8	4.2	4.3	4.2
2. Mankind (4) J: Ms Holly Watson (59.5kg) T: Hayden Ballantyne	14	14	13	12	12.6	13
3. Guns Of Navarone (2) J: Brad Parnham (58.5kg) T: N D Parnham	21	21	21	21	21.5	19
4. Comes A Time (3) J: Chris Parnham (57.5kg) T: J T Warwick	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.8	2.7	2.6
5. Silkinize (8) J: Paul Harvey (57.5kg) T: D R Harrison	6	6	6	6	6.1	6
6. Material Witness (5) J: William Pike (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant	6.5	6	5.5	6.5	6.1	5.5
7. Our Danni (1) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (55kg) T: Luke Fernie	10	11	10	11	10.4	10
8. Dia De La Raza (7) J: Patrick Carbery (54kg) T: Vaughn Sigley	26	26	31	26	29	31

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 3:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Comes A Time finally draws a gate today. He’s been racing very consistently all preparation but it’s been marred with hard luck stories and bad gates. Comes up with barrier 3 today, Chris Parnham sticks, and he drops back to 1000m. Has had three starts at this track and distance for two wins and a 2nd. Looks very hard to beat.

(5) Silkinize ran 2nd to Amasenus last start, which is good form for a race like this, while (6) Material Witness comes to Belmont for the first time and will be swooping home over the top.

Tip: (4) Comes A Time $3.20 TAB

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Comes A Time

Race 4

Amelia Park (Rs1mw) (2100m)
4:03pm (AEDT)

Race 4 Amelia Park (Rs1mw) (2100m) 4:03pm (AEDT)
1. Blackwater Bay (6) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60kg) T: A G Durrant	4.6	4.6	4.6	5	5.1	4.8
2. Kallaroo (4) J: Brad Parnham (59.5kg) T: D L Morton	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.5	5.8	5.5
3. Melarab (2) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (58kg) T: F R Kersley	16	16	16	16	16.2	16
4. Sluice Box (7) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (57.5kg) T: A W Maley	6	6	6	6	6.6	6
5. Sugar Cain (3) J: William Pike (57kg) T: G & A Williams	4.6	4.5	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.8
6. Choose Freedom (8) J: Ryan Hill (56kg) T: Jade Tangaroa	15	14	15	15	16.2	16
7. San Crispino (5) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56kg) T: Ms S L Miller	7.5	7.5	7	6.5	6.6	7
8. All Man (1) J: Jason Whiting (55kg) T: Ms S Bakranich	6.5	7	6	6	5.7	6.5

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:06pm (AEDT)

Race 5

Drummond Golf Belmont Classic (2200m)
4:38pm (AEDT)

Race 5 Drummond Golf Belmont Classic (2200m) 4:38pm (AEDT)
1. Kerman Rock (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (56.5kg) T: C G Willis	7.5	8	8	7.5	7	8
2. Tena Koutou (2) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56.5kg) T: A G Durrant	2.35	2.35	2.15	2.3	2.3	2.25
3. Tradem' In (3) J: Paul Harvey (56.5kg) T: T R Harvey	10	10	11	10	10	10
4. Truly Reliable (1) J: Ms Shelby Bowtell (56.5kg) T: Raymond Vincent	8	7.5	8	8.5	8	7.5
5. Chili Is Hot (5) J: Jason Whiting (54.5kg) T: G C Ballantyne	5	5	5.5	5	5	5
6. Baronova (4) J: William Pike (54.5kg) T: J T Warwick	5	5	5	5.5	5.4	5

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:41pm (AEDT)

(2) Tena Koutou is flying, winning his past three straight. Gets up to 2200m now and there’s no reason he can’t win again, though sometimes these small fields can throw up weird results. He’s undefeated from three starts on soft ground so the heavy track should pose no problem.

(5) Chili Is Hot caused a boilover in the Belmont Oaks last start, fighting off Sheza Chalmer. She didn’t have any luck in the lead up to that race and was good prior to it so she’s not hopeless again here.

Tip: (2) Tena Koutou $2.40 Ladbrokes

Saver: (5) Chili Is Hot $5.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Tena Koutou, 0.5 units WIN Chili Is Hot

Race 6

Perth Racing Club Mship-Bm78+ (1600m)
5:15pm (AEDT)

Race 6 Perth Racing Club Mship-Bm78+ (1600m) 5:15pm (AEDT)
1. Friar Fox (1) J: Ms Kate Southam (61.5kg) T: Ms J Erkelens	31	21	21	26	26.5	19
2. Flow (7) J: Chris Parnham (59kg) T: Martin Allan	12	10	11	12	11.4	12
3. Friaresque (3) J: Laqdar Ramoly (57.5kg) T: Ms E Strempel	7.5	7	7	7	7	6.5
4. The Big Show (5) J: Ms Chloe Azzopardi (57.5kg) T: D T Mcauliffe	61	61	51	51	63	41
5. True Attraction (8) J: William Pike (56kg) T: A G Durrant	2.3	2.3	2.35	2.5	2.4	2.3
6. Fuhrer (2) J: Craig Staples (55kg) T: Debra Lewis	6	5.5	5.5	6	5	5
7. Playing Marika (6) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54.5kg) T: Ms S Bakranich	4	4	3.9	3.8	3.9	4.2
8. Red Publisher (4) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: A W Maley	17	17	17	17	18	18

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 5:16pm (AEDT)

Race 7

Crown Perth (Bm62+) (1000m)
5:50pm (AEDT)

Race 7 Crown Perth (Bm62+) (1000m) 5:50pm (AEDT)
1. Brooklyn Pier (11) J: Laqdar Ramoly (60.5kg) T: N D Parnham	2.7	3.6	3.5	3.8	3.65	3.4
2. Starfield Impact (10) J: Ms Holly Watson (58.5kg) T: M Santich	20	21	21	20	21.5	23
3. All Day Session (4) J: Brad Rawiller (56kg) T: A W Maley	6.5	5	5	5	5	5
4. Excerpt (5) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (55.5kg) T: A G Durrant	8.5	8.5	8.5	9	8.7	8.5
5. Choice Bid (1) J: Chris Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham	13	13	12	12	14.2	13
6. Janaura (6) J: Craig Staples (54kg) T: P H Jordan	23	21	21	20	20	23
7. Poker Face (7) J: Ms Beaux Banovic-Edwards (54kg) T: Ms P Kenney
8. Queenship (9) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (54kg) T: J T Warwick	41	34	34	34	40	34
9. Sketta (8) J: William Pike (54kg) T: F R Kersley	3.1	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.85	2.8
10. Type Won (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54kg) T: Kieran Mcdonagh	20	19	18	17	19.6	19
11. Vicinity (2) J: Ms Madi Derrick (54kg) T: C G Willis	101	126	151	201	171	126

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 5:51pm (AEDT)

Race 8

Seacorp (Rs1mw) (1200m)
6:20pm (AEDT)

Race 8 Seacorp (Rs1mw) (1200m) 6:20pm (AEDT)
1. Agent Jay (6) J: Ms Holly Watson (61.5kg) T: S J Miller	5	5	4.6	4.8	5	5
2. London Miss (1) J: Ms Lucy Warwick (58.5kg) T: B V Watkins	16	11	12	12	11.2	12
3. Campese (2) J: Brad Rawiller (57kg) T: M L Lane
4. Marlize (5) J: Jordan Turner (56.5kg) T: G W Dupre	34	34	31	31	36	34
5. Approach (4) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (56kg) T: Ms A King	17	12	13	13	10.4	13
6. Jag The Joker (10) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (56kg) T: A W Maley	8	8	7.5	7.5	7.8	8
7. Wakan Tanka (9) J: Steven Parnham (56kg) T: N D Parnham	16	16	16	15	13	16
8. Devoted Star (7) J: Chris Parnham (55kg) T: G & A Williams	5	5.5	7	8	6.8	6
9. Real Grace (8) J: William Pike (55kg) T: G & A Williams	2.25	2.35	2.7	2.8	2.4	2.5
10. Rocky Path (3) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (54.5kg) T: Vaughn Sigley	18	16	14	14	15.6	14

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 6:21pm (AEDT)

Good race this, which is dominated by the cerise and white colours, but I think (2) London Miss is over the odds here. She travelled into the race well first up but the jockey lost her irons rounding the turn and she dropped out to finish last. Forgive her for that run. 1200m might be a touch short of her best but she gets the senior rider on today, gets barrier 1 and should improve a touch second up. The main query is the wet track given she’s yet to win from five starts on soft ground, but one of those was first up and the rest were during the prep she didn’t come up. Something small each way (half fixed, half betfair SP).

Tip: (2) London Miss $19/$4.20 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units E/W London Miss

Race 9

Salinger (Bm69+) (1400m)
7:00pm (AEDT)

Race 9 Salinger (Bm69+) (1400m) 7:00pm (AEDT)
1. Kelly's Callisto (6) J: Ms Holly Watson (59kg) T: A G Durrant	23	21	21	21	19.2	23
2. The Spruiker (5) J: Shaun Mcgruddy (57kg) T: S J Wolfe	2.6	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.95	2.8
3. Picture Perfect (7) J: William Pike (56.5kg) T: G & A Williams	11	11	11	12	10.2	11
4. Aberdeen Queen (8) J: Chris Parnham (56kg) T: L Smith	3.8	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.75	3.7
5. Cambist (3) J: Shaun O'donnell (56kg) T: Ms R Lockwood	17	18	18	18	19.2	19
6. Special Choice (10) J: Clint Johnston-Porter (56kg) T: A G Durrant	13	14	14	14	12.8	14
7. Speedy Miss (2) J: Ms Kristy Bennett (55.5kg) T: D & B Pearce	12	12	11	11	11.8	12
8. Tiff Has Spoken (4) J: Ms Kyra Yuill (54.5kg) T: Ms S L Miller	5.5	5	5	5.5	5	5
9. Megazone (9) J: Ms Jade Mcnaught (54kg) T: A W Maley	31	31	31	31	27.5	34
10. Turbo Power (1) J: Steven Parnham (54kg) T: N D Parnham	61	67	71	81	67	71

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 7:02pm (AEDT)

(2) The Spruiker is undefeated this preparation and his form continues to stack up, with two subsequent winners out of his last start. He should land in a perfect spot once again from barrier 5 and so long as he handles the heavy ground, should win again.

(4) Aberdeen Queen has been running super all prep. She just has a bad habit of getting way too far out of her ground and giving herself too much to do. Chris Parnham goes back on today but once again she has an awkward barrier to deal with. Has three wins on soft ground but has never run on heavy.\

(5) Cambist always runs well first up and can be included at $17, while (3) Picture Perfect is looking for more ground but that doesn’t always stop these Peters horses firing first up.

Tip: (2) The Spruiker $2.40 TAB

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN The Spruiker

Tim Geers

A trip to Hong Kong quickly had Tim hooked to the racing caper, maintaining the best place anywhere in the world on a Wednesday night is Happy Valley. He holds a strong interest in the Hong Kong form, along with the metropolitan racing in Sydney and Melbourne. He’s a fan of dry tracks, Zac Purton and takes particular interest in identifying patterns in the form. Tim wears many hats, juggling the roles of form analyst, jockey manager and racehorse owner.