Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, July 17th

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 11:56am (AEDT)

1800m for the 2yo’s is always a strange set up. (1) Aktogali won fairly well at Bendigo over 1600m two back and outside of the winner, Royalzel, he was one of the better runs here over the mile last start. Looks suited to 1800m although does have to concede weight and probably gets back again.

(2) Tanaka Son has seen 1800m which is a positive. Looks like he needs 2400m already at start number 4, but the winner of his last start has run well since in bm72 grade, only 1.2L off Irish Butterfly. Drops back to 3yo grade and at double figures he’s probably over the odds.

(9) Gonnadancealot was good behind Aktogali at Bendigo. Gets in with 55.5kg here and gets Kah on, so she’s easy to like.

(7) Honeycreeper comes out of the best race behind Tycoonist but that was at 1300m and now has to extend to 1800m. On breeding (by Teofilo) that should be fine, it’s just whether she’s ready for it. Looks short enough.

Tip: (2) Tanaka Son- $12.00/3.30 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 0.25/0.75 units E/W Tanaka Son

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 12:31pm (AEDT)

Cracking race between some very handy 3yo’s. The unbeaten (9) Tuvalu has looked very good in two starts, winning by 7L on debut and 2.5L before a spell. He’s got a good cruising speed and just keeps going. Draws 1 here, if he’s ready to go, he’ll likely lead and be very hard to run down with 55.5kg.

(8) I’m Thunderstruck is the danger. He was dominant first up, started $1.65 last start and not a lot went right. He missed the start a touch and got into an awful spot, near last on the fence and over racing. Zahra shook him up early and came very wide, which was not the place to be on the day at Caulfield. Prepared to forgive that, Kah goes on and I think Flemington will definitely suit this big son of Shocking. Looks backable at $4.60 given his SP last start.

(5) Sir Davy looks the only other danger. He was desperately unlucky in the Creswick when held up very badly in a bunched finish. That was a strange race with roughies filling the placings, and the form prior was solid without being spectacular.

They are 1st and 2nd favourite but really I could mark Tuvalu and I’m Thunderstruck shorter- there are horses coming out of midweeks that have very little chance and are taking up to much percentage. You’re getting around $2.10 for either to win and I think they win this race more than 50% of the time.

Tip: (9) Tuvalu- $3.60 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (8) I’m Thunderstruck- $4.60 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN Tuvalu, 2 units WIN I’m Thunderstruck

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 1:06pm (AEDT)

Not sure why they opted to claim again but all (7) Lindhout has to do is hold her form and she’ll win again. She finally put it all together last start in a performance that justified the hype she’s had early doors and it was a dominant win. Hefel goes back on which is a small query, but she’s suited at Flemington and drawn out is a big positive. Gets in very light and should be too good late.

(9) Galgani looks the obvious threat. She sat 3 wide on speed and wasn’t far off Lindhout two back, but did look to have every chance last start when leading, kicking and looking some hope before Lindhout really charged, putting 2L on her. She gets no weight swing but will have map favours again. Even still, it’s hard to see her reversing the 2L margin from last start.

(6) Aidensfield drops 5kg in weight from last start but I’m not sure how well she’s going.

Tip: (7) Lindhout- $2.40 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Lindhout

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 1:41pm (AEDT)

(3) Furrion is ready to win. I’ve had him as a horse to follow both first and second up after two very good efforts. His late splits were good first up behind Dice Roll, and he beat that horse home in the winter final last start. He generally races very well 3rd up, gets out to 2000m and should sit midfield, just needing a touch of luck. Surprised he isn’t favourite and at $5.00 he’ll be a strong bet.

(11) Vegas Knight is the favourite but he’s coming out of benchmark races and had every chance last start behind Smokin’ Romans. He’s very consistent and will give himself every chance on speed from barrier 1 with Willo, but I don’t think he’s nearly as classy as a horse like Furrion.

(2) Schabau will likely need the run but is up to this at his best. Has won 3 from 5 at 2000m but drawn wide, Jack Hill on, I think they’ll ride him conservatively and hit the line.

(5) Pancho is ticking along okay but doesn’t win out of turn.

Tip: (3) Furrion- $5.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Furrion

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 2:21pm (AEDT)

(13) Lowanna Magic on top. I was keen on him at $51 last start at this T/D and I think he should’ve run 3rd there behind The Astrologist. He got tight for room most of the run home which didn’t suit, and now drops from listed grade to bm78, only rising 2kg. The run prior at Swan Hill was excellent, I’d just love to have seen him drawn wide.

(10) Zorro’s Dream is the danger on the quick backup. He should’ve won last week when Will Price made a split second decision that in hindsight was wrong. His late splits were very good and he draws out, but 1200m potentially sees him out. Wouldn’t be shocked if he ran 2nd yet again.

(9) Yulong Storm rarely wins but is going quite well. He wasn’t far off Lowanna Magic at Swan Hill and does meet him 2.5kg better at the weights. He was just fair last time but his only run down the straight was a big win and he draws well.

(12) Wilmot Pass is consistent, should be hitting the line again but $7.50 isn’t overly appealing.

Lowanna Magic on top- he comes out of the best race, gets in very well at the weights and might be stronger than Zorro’s Dream late at 1200m.

Tip: (13) Lowanna Magic- $4.80 at TAB

Value: (9) Yulong Storm- $34.00/9.00 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Lowanna Magic, 0.25 units E/W Yulong Storm

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 3:01pm (AEDT)

Scratching of Degraves has unfortunately robbed us off a great clash between two exciting imports.

(8) Degraves is the favourite after a winning Australian debut. He laid in badly late and would’ve won by a couple of lengths if he ran straight. With that run under the belt, Will Price should be able to control him better, and he gets in so well with 52.5kg. Very hard to beat.

(2) Dice Roll is now the horse to beat.. He clearly wasn’t suited leading at a slow tempo last start at $1.65 in the winter final but his work through the line once headed was quite good. He won’t be leading here and with something to chase I still think he’s a group class horse. At $4.40 I don’t want to lose on him.

(10) Fundraiser is a horse I was keen to follow after a luckless run last start but he’s struck an incredibly strong race. Can settle leader’s back from barrier 1 and fill the trifecta.

Degraves being scratched has shaken things up a bit. I was initially keen on him with the weight swing, but with him out, I’m expecting Dice Roll to be hard to beat. He’ll be lengths better with a sit, and Think We’re Due should go forward with the claim with Fundraiser pushing up and allow Dice Roll to sit just off them. Have to follow up that $1.65 SP last start and still believe he’s a group class horse. 

Tip: (2) Dice Roll- $3.10 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 3 units WIN Dice Roll

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 3:36pm (AEDT)

Looks a very trappy race and I want to spec a couple of roughies. (11) Heavenly Bridges is $101 at the time of writing which seems crazy. She was simply too fast over 975m two back at Swan Hill when down on 50kg, and I thought she was huge last start in this grade against the mares, running 3rd to Absolute Flirt and in the worse ground. She beat home Kalkarni Royale who is nearly 1/10th of her price here. In form Alana Kelly sticks, she’ll carry 51kg and try to be the fastest.

(7) Fine Dane hasn’t won in a long time but does race well first up in general with 3 wins from 6 starts. First up last prep he ran 3rd at this T/D to Sword Of Mercy (since run very well in group races), and before that he was 1.6L off Bella Vella at group 2 level. Draws out wide, will sit on speed and run well.

(10) Dirty Thoughts is the favourite but looks short. 1000m is short of her best and I don’t think she’s beaten much last prep in 3yo filly’s grade. Any rain around will help.

(4) Spaceboy is very quick, will be interesting to see how he goes down the straight. Has to carry 61kg but likes it wet.

 

Tip: (11) Heavenly Bridges- $101/21 at Sportsbet

Also Backing: (7) Fine Dane- $34.00/7.00 at TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.25 units E/W Heavenly Bridges, 0.25 units E/W Fine Dane

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:16pm (AEDT)

See no reason (3) South Pacific won’t just win again. He finally put it all together last start and relished a strong speed to bolt in under Kah. Goes up in weight but he was dominant, will roll forward and this is no stronger whatsoever than last start. Seems a fair price for another of these Maher/Eustace stayers that just have lengths on their rivals in these 2500+ Saturday races.

I do think (15) Lofty Heights is airborne and bursting to win a race. Not sure he can beat the favourite on class, but his run last start was huge. He got a mile back and flew home, still about 4L off the leaders at the 100m mark and going down by 0.8L, running the 9th fastest last 200m of the day over 2400m. Would’ve loved Kelly to be able to claim and take him down to 51kg, but over the longer trip, he can race on speed if he steps better, and at $15/3.90 he’s not the worst each way. The market support last start was very interesting also- he was off the map late.

(5) Saunter Boy has a bit to make up on South Pacific- doubt 2.5kg swing will do so but he’s racing very well both on the flat and over the jumps. Will stay all day.

(4) Sweet Thomas won the worst Saturday race maybe ever in Sydney last start over 3200m with 60kg. This is much harder but again, he’ll keep grinding away.

Tip: (3) South Pacific- $2.30 at Bet365

Value: (15) Lofty Heights- $15.00/3.90 at Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 2.5 units WIN South Pacific, 0.25 units WIN Lofty Heights, 1.25 units PLC Lofty Heights

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:51pm (AEDT)

Difficult finish. (1) Foxy Frida is going very well but even after the claim has to carry 57kg as a filly against the boys which isn’t easy.

(2) Seb Song is wearing very thin and had his chance last start but is generally consistent.

(4) Seiners Express was given a great ride to beat Seb Song last start. Goes up in the weights and draws awkwardly but can win again.

(6) Get In The Queue bolted in at Werribee after leading last start. I expect similar tactics will be adopted to ensure a decent tempo if nothing else.

Leave me out of this race. Wouldn’t be shocked if something at huge odds bobs up and destroys a few quaddies.

 

Tip: (4) Seiners Express- $9.50 at Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: No Bet