Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, July 17th

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 11:06am (AEDT)

Competitive little juvenile race here and I struggle to find much of an angle.

(3) Miss In Charge ran well behind Verne two starts ago and then won at Canterbury last start. Drew barrier 1 there which always helps greatly but the race may prove to be a decent form reference.

(2) War Eternal improved from his debut run to his second start, where he was beaten a length by Dragonstone. That horse then ran well in defeat last weekend so looks OK form.

(6) Honeycreeper has been very well backed in early betting, coming off a 4^th to Tycoonist last time out. Won well at Newcastle prior to that when she sat three-wide the trip and proved far too strong.

Tip: (3) Miss In Charge $5.50 Bet365

Betting Strategy: No bet

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 11:41am (AEDT)

(10) Lady River looks a reasonable price here at $6.00. She won her first two starts at Scone this prep before finishing 3^rd in a similar race to this at Rosehill two weeks ago. She drew wide there and ran home strongly but just came up ¾ of a length short. She ran home in the fastest final 200m, 400m and 600m of the race, being the only horse to break 12 seconds for her final furlong. That was the same race Anethole ran in and he comes up favourite here.

(12) Danzadel resumes here for Terry Robinson with Tommy Berry on board. She won her past two starts before going for a break. They were over 1400m but she did race well over 1200m fresh. Gets a good draw, has won on wet ground and expecting her to be very competitive.

(18) Cavalier Charles is the horse to beat off his last start effort when coming from back in the field to run 2^nd in a similar race.

Tip: (10) Lady River $6.00 TAB

Also Backing: (12) Danzadel $7.50 TAB

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Lady River, 0.5 units WIN Danzadel

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 12:16pm (AEDT)

(5) Kinloch was good through the line last start after ending up on the rail back in the field. Getting to Randwick should help him, as will JMac going back on.

(12) Yangarra Rose was given an ordinary steer last time out and I thought he run was OK in defeat. She bolted in at Kembla two starts ago on heavy ground and with clear air today, she can give this a shake.

(4) Fastconi continues to race well and will do so again, while (3) Diamonds’n’stones is a horse to watch but 1200m fresh might be short of his best.

Tip: (12) Yangarra Rose $7.00 TopSport

Also Backing: (5) Kinloch $7.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Yangarra Rose, 0.5 units WIN Kinloch

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 12:51pm (AEDT)

(8) La Chevalee gets barrier 1 and James McDonald here, which is two big advantages. She was left with way too much to do with Louise Day aboard last start, and prior to that she had awful trouble in the straight with Regan Bayliss steering. Looks a race she can win and with the huge jockey upgrade today, she goes on top with confidence.

(6) Navy Cross might be the value at $16. He always takes a couple of runs to get fit but he tends to race well third up from a spell, with two wins and a 2^nd from three starts. Potentially prefers firmer ground but draws well, gets up in distance and can be backed small.

(3) Badoosh next best.

Tip: (8) La Chevalee $2.60 TopSport

Value: (6) Navy Cross $16 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN La Chevalee, 0.25 units WIN Navy Cross

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 1:26pm (AEDT)

(4) Papal Warrior is racing in super form, winning his past two and running 2^nd in the two before that. In those defeats, he was beaten 0.06L and 0.02L, so he’s really in a great vein of form. His two victories have come on heavy ground so he’ll get conditions to suit again. The horse that ran 3^rd last start came out and won his next start, while there have been four subsequent winners out of the race he won a month ago. My only query here is the speed map. He’s come into barrier 8 of 11 at the time of writing, so he’ll need a good ride from Kerrin McEvoy, and the track will need to allow those horses back in the field to run on.

Plenty of other chances in the race but will just be backing Papal Warrior.

Tip: (4) Papal Warrior $4.00 TopSport

Betting Strategy: 2 units WIN Papal Warrior

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 2:01pm (AEDT)

Quite keen on (5) Get The Idea here, though it’s hard to be really confident in these Midway races. This horse won first up at Warwick Farm in this grade, which was also on a heavy track. There he beat the likes of Promise Of Success, who then came out and ran a stormer in defeat at its next start. Is undefeated second up from two attempts so I see no reason he can’t be competitive again.

(8) Wander went in my list of horses to follow after his good first up run, when we were on him at $26. He ran home strongly into 3^rd there and arguably should have finished closer to the winner, but was held up at a crucial stage of the straight. Has two wins from four starts when second up and loves the wet ground, so looks a serious chance today.

(4) Henschel struck a heavy track at Kembla last start and bolted in. The horse he beat then came out and won the Highway last weekend so that suggests he can be competitive again today.

Tip: (5) Get The Idea $7.50 Bet365

Also Backing: (8) Wander $6.50 Ladbrokes

Saver: (4) Henschel $5.50 Ladbrokes

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Get The Idea, 0.5 units WIN Wander, 0.5 units WIN Henschel

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 2:42pm (AEDT)

An 1800m race with four Waller runners engaged – anyone’s guess what happens here. It might be D-day for (7) Great House though. He won well first up over the mile but was a touch plain last start, albeit he had a fair task to run down the leaders. Third up, stays at 1800m and strikes a heavy track for the first time.  Surely takes a closer position from barrier 3 with Tommy Berry back aboard, is the one to beat.

(8) Steely produced a solid win over Lackeen and Wicklow last start and likely gets a heavy track again here. Can be competitive.

(2) Mubariz and (9) So Wicked are two more Waller runners racing well that can win.

Tip: (7) Great House $3.00 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit WIN Great House

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 3:21pm (AEDT)

(4) Oscar Zulu has won three straight, all on wet ground, and looks to get another chance today. There is some query about his last win given he had the perfect run throughout in a race that was run at a solid tempo. His main rivals were back in the field while he just sat behind the leaders and enjoyed the run. However, from barrier 5 he looks to get a similar run today, and he’s showed no signs of slowing down so I’ll be on him again.

(5) Surf Dancer makes his Australian debut for the GaiBott team. He’s won three of his eight starts in the UK and has been gelded ahead of his debut here. He’s trialled well but he was beaten 13.5L at his only start on heavy ground and looks short enough in betting here.

(6) Itz Lily is the one I’ll be backing along with Oscar Zulu. She’s a mudlark, with six wins from 13 starts on rain-affected ground. Forget her three runs in Brisbane where she struck firm ground each time. Much better suited in the wet here and JMac goes on.

(8) Mirra Vision is flying. She won first up in a race that has produced five subsequent winners; second up she sat three-wide the trip and then she bounced back to win again last start.

Tip: (4) Oscar Zulu $3.40 Bet365

Also Backing: (6) Itz Lily $6.50 Bet365

Value: (8) Mirra Vision $8.50 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1.5 units WIN Oscar Zulu, 0.75 units WIN Itz Lily, 0.5 units WIN Mirra Vision

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:01pm (AEDT)

(9) Steel Diamond was well backed to start $3.10 against Expat last start but the race wasn’t run to suit at all and she struggled to make any impression. Draws better today, is third up and there looks much more speed engaged, so taking the $8.00 today.

(1) Expat is flying and clearly loves the wet, with three wins from as many starts on heavy ground. She was able to dictate the race to suit herself last start and the rest were no hope of running her down. Doubt she gets that today with speed drawn inside and outside her. But she is clearly the one to beat.

(13) Eight Diamonds resumed with a dominant win at Canterbury, though she did draw barrier 1 there. She’s clearly a horse with some talent though and Tommy berry sticks with her. Interested to see how she measures up in this grade.

Tip: (13) Eight Diamonds $5.00 Ladbrokes

Also Backing: (9) Steel Diamond $8.00 Bet365

Betting Strategy: 0.5 units WIN Eight Diamonds, 0.5 units WIN Steel Diamond

Odds Last Updated: July 17, 2021, 4:36pm (AEDT)

Quite happy to stick with (8) Our Bellagio Miss at each way odds here. She was very good first up behind Malkovich when sitting three-wide the trip. That horse has franked the form in Melbourne since and she came out second up and also won well. That was only a Midway race so this is a step up but she is a complete swimmer and won over this track and distance third up last preparation.

(11) Irish Angel, (4) The Bopper and (1) I Am Power all have claims.

Tip: (8) Our Bellagio Miss E/W $6.50/$2.30 Sportsbet

Betting Strategy: 1 unit E/W Our Bellagio Miss